Plan 1605 Plan · Rosenberg, TX 77417

$200,995

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,605 sqft · SingleFamily · 209 Days on market

Poor condition ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.1/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

* Granite kitchen countertops * Dedicated laundry room * Smart thermostat * Kitchen island * Stainless steel appliances * Walk-in kitchen pantry * 5-panel interior doors * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Extra storage space * Open floor plan * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Near local schools * Great shopping nearby * Near entertainment and leisure * Community park * Pickleball court * Pond

Key facts

• Kitchen island
• Smart thermostat
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• GRANITE KITCHEN COUNTERTOPS
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM
• SMART THERMOSTAT
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• WALK-IN KITCHEN PANTRY

🏗️ New construction. The $200,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $223,882.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $201k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $30 ($366/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (0.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $177k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.4% in Rosenberg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#922 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 232 active listings in the ZIP; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (4.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $63k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 209 days — a 12% lower offer ($177k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,875 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 209 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.58%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $223,882
• List price: $200,995
• Delta: -10.22%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7214 Brooklea Rd	0.06mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,549 (-4%)	1mo	$223,882	$145	86
6514 Track Rd	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,458 (-9%)	18mo	$149,000	$102	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.15% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.68×
• Total profit: $42,905
• Equity at exit: $115,523

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.13×
• Total profit: $133,686
• Equity at exit: $190,569

Cash invested: $62,687 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77417

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 232
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,997 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,174
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$280 /mo · $3,358/yr
• Insurance: −$93
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$419
• Net cashflow: $30

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,958

Max offer price $223,882

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,970
• Closing costs: $6,716
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,995 Active 209 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,995 Active 208 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,995 Active 207 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,995 Active 206 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $200,995 Active 204 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $200,995 Active 200 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $200,995 Active 199 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $200,995 Active 198 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $200,995 Active 195 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $200,995 Active 194 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $200,995 Active 193 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $200,995 Active 192 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $200,995 Active 191 DOM
14. 2026-04-11
    price $205,995 449-char remark

    Show marketing remark (449 chars)

    * Granite kitchen countertops * Dedicated laundry room * Smart thermostat * Kitchen island * Stainless steel appliances * Walk-in kitchen pantry * 5-panel interior doors * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Extra storage space * Open floor plan * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Near local schools * Great shopping nearby * Near entertainment and leisure * Community park * Pickleball court * Pond

15. 2026-03-28
    price $203,995 449-char remark

    Show marketing remark (449 chars)

    * Granite kitchen countertops * Dedicated laundry room * Smart thermostat * Kitchen island * Stainless steel appliances * Walk-in kitchen pantry * 5-panel interior doors * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Extra storage space * Open floor plan * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Near local schools * Great shopping nearby * Near entertainment and leisure * Community park * Pickleball court * Pond

16. 2026-03-24
    price $201,995 449-char remark

    Show marketing remark (449 chars)

    * Granite kitchen countertops * Dedicated laundry room * Smart thermostat * Kitchen island * Stainless steel appliances * Walk-in kitchen pantry * 5-panel interior doors * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Extra storage space * Open floor plan * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Near local schools * Great shopping nearby * Near entertainment and leisure * Community park * Pickleball court * Pond

17. 2026-02-06
    price $200,995 449-char remark

    Show marketing remark (449 chars)

    * Granite kitchen countertops * Dedicated laundry room * Smart thermostat * Kitchen island * Stainless steel appliances * Walk-in kitchen pantry * 5-panel interior doors * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Extra storage space * Open floor plan * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Near local schools * Great shopping nearby * Near entertainment and leisure * Community park * Pickleball court * Pond

18. 2025-12-12
    price $210,995 449-char remark

    Show marketing remark (449 chars)

    * Granite kitchen countertops * Dedicated laundry room * Smart thermostat * Kitchen island * Stainless steel appliances * Walk-in kitchen pantry * 5-panel interior doors * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Extra storage space * Open floor plan * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Near local schools * Great shopping nearby * Near entertainment and leisure * Community park * Pickleball court * Pond

19. 2025-11-22
    status Active 449-char remark

    Show marketing remark (449 chars)

    * Granite kitchen countertops * Dedicated laundry room * Smart thermostat * Kitchen island * Stainless steel appliances * Walk-in kitchen pantry * 5-panel interior doors * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Extra storage space * Open floor plan * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Near local schools * Great shopping nearby * Near entertainment and leisure * Community park * Pickleball court * Pond

20. 2025-11-22
    price $220,995 449-char remark

    Show marketing remark (449 chars)

    * Granite kitchen countertops * Dedicated laundry room * Smart thermostat * Kitchen island * Stainless steel appliances * Walk-in kitchen pantry * 5-panel interior doors * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Extra storage space * Open floor plan * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Near local schools * Great shopping nearby * Near entertainment and leisure * Community park * Pickleball court * Pond

21. 2025-11-05
    historical 449-char remark

    Show marketing remark (449 chars)

    * Granite kitchen countertops * Dedicated laundry room * Smart thermostat * Kitchen island * Stainless steel appliances * Walk-in kitchen pantry * 5-panel interior doors * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Extra storage space * Open floor plan * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Near local schools * Great shopping nearby * Near entertainment and leisure * Community park * Pickleball court * Pond

22. 2025-11-04
    listed $230,995 Active 449-char remark

    Show marketing remark (449 chars)

    * Granite kitchen countertops * Dedicated laundry room * Smart thermostat * Kitchen island * Stainless steel appliances * Walk-in kitchen pantry * 5-panel interior doors * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Extra storage space * Open floor plan * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Near local schools * Great shopping nearby * Near entertainment and leisure * Community park * Pickleball court * Pond

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 10% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,965
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,541
• − Property taxes: −$3,358
• − Insurance: −$1,119
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,917
• − Management: −$1,917
• − Depreciation: −$6,513
• Taxable loss: −$3,401
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$816
• After-tax cash flow: $1,182/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

The property is in poor condition with extensive repairs and maintenance needed, including fencing and landscaping. Significant value can be added through these improvements.

Repairs flagged

• Major fencing — Appears old and worn
• Major landscaping — No visible landscaping

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping and fencing repair — Improves curb appeal and safety
• Both roof repair — Ensures structural integrity and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
fencing · Appears old and worn	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · No visible landscaping	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$30,000–100,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both landscaping and fencing repair — Improves curb appeal and safety ↑
• Both roof repair — Ensures structural integrity and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

Livability — Rosenberg

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #922
• US rank: #16414

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 115,151
• Population (ZIP): 3,232

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 67% Two or more races 49% White 22% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 54%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 24%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.15%
• Current HPI: 337.8236
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-10.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $205,995 Zillow
• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $203,995 Zillow
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $201,995 Zillow
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $200,995 Zillow
• 2025-12-12 Price Changed $210,995 Zillow
• 2025-11-22 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-11-22 Price Changed $220,995 Zillow
• 2025-11-05 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-11-04 Listed $230,995 Zillow