19725 Cr 444 · Mineola, TX 75771

$199,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,686 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 60 Days on market

Built 2001 3.52 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming home with 3.5 Acres in the country. Upstairs loft also has an adjoining bonus room that could be a 3rd bedroom or office. The covered front porch is large and inviting and the home has a side deck that is perfect for entertaining or star gazing. The vaulted ceilings in entry/den/kitchen/dining area lends to the open floor plan and have hardwood floors. The open kitchen has a an island and a dining area with an abundance of natural lighting from all of the windows. The family room has a wood burning fireplace. Both of the bedrooms are a great size/carpeted and the master bedroom has a large walk in closet. There is a barn for the horses and it also has a great deal of storage for personal items. All of this can be yours in the Lindale ISD. Come see it today. .. it won't last long!

Key facts

• Fully fenced
• Barn
• Vaulted ceilings

Tags

• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• FULLY FENCED
• PRIVATE AREA
• 3.521 ACRES
• BARN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-84 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $184k (7.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $164k (17.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $164k (17.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 2.6% in Mineola — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#392 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Lindale ISD (town): math 71% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #20 of 826 in TX (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lindale J H (math 81% / reading 72%, grade A, #30 of 1,662 statewide, top 2%, 711 students, 44% FRL); Lindale H S (math 79% / reading 75%, grade A-, #60 of 1,632 statewide, top 4%, 1,265 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools at 41% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 633 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 595 units permitted in Smith County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Smith County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 50% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $164,369 (17.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.81%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-37,557
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-39,461
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75771

• Home prices YoY: -30.6%
• Active inventory: 633
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,644 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$256 /mo · $3,070/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$345
• Net cashflow: $-84

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,750

Max offer price $184,190

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-27
   listed $199,000 Active
3. 2015-12-04
   soldstatus
4. 2015-11-29
   soldstatus 799-char remark

   Show marketing remark (799 chars)

   Charming home with 3.5 Acres in the country. Upstairs loft also has an adjoining bonus room that could be a 3rd bedroom or office. The covered front porch is large and inviting and the home has a side deck that is perfect for entertaining or star gazing. The vaulted ceilings in entry/den/kitchen/dining area lends to the open floor plan and have hardwood floors. The open kitchen has a an island and a dining area with an abundance of natural lighting from all of the windows. The family room has a wood burning fireplace. Both of the bedrooms are a great size/carpeted and the master bedroom has a large walk in closet. There is a barn for the horses and it also has a great deal of storage for personal items. All of this can be yours in the Lindale ISD. Come see it today. .. it won't last long!

5. 2015-10-14
   listed $149,900 799-char remark

   Show marketing remark (799 chars)

   Charming home with 3.5 Acres in the country. Upstairs loft also has an adjoining bonus room that could be a 3rd bedroom or office. The covered front porch is large and inviting and the home has a side deck that is perfect for entertaining or star gazing. The vaulted ceilings in entry/den/kitchen/dining area lends to the open floor plan and have hardwood floors. The open kitchen has a an island and a dining area with an abundance of natural lighting from all of the windows. The family room has a wood burning fireplace. Both of the bedrooms are a great size/carpeted and the master bedroom has a large walk in closet. There is a barn for the horses and it also has a great deal of storage for personal items. All of this can be yours in the Lindale ISD. Come see it today. .. it won't last long!

6. 2013-05-21
   soldstatus
7. 2008-04-29
   soldstatus
8. 2004-04-01
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,070 · $256/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,642 · $303/mo
• Expected delta: +$571/yr (+$48/mo · 18.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 50% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,724
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$3,070
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,578
• − Management: −$1,578
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$4,433
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,064
• After-tax cash flow: $58/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lindale ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827510
• Math proficiency: 71% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $57,325
• Composite: 58.85/100
• National rank: #974
• State rank: #20 of 826 in TX

Livability — Mineola

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #8222

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Smith County · 180,570 people
• Metro: Tyler, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,238
• Household income: $93,462
• Rent vs Own: 21.7% rent · 78.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 166.0

Population outlook (Smith County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,890 people
• By 2030: 261,665 · +5.1%
• By 2040: 286,114 · +15.0%
• By 2050: 308,006 · +23.8%
• By 2075: 354,171 · +42.3%
• By 2100: 372,828 · +49.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 6% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Smith

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.1) · D 27.0% · R 72.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.6pp toward R · 2008: -39.5pp · 2024: -45.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.1 2020: R+39.4 2016: R+43.9 2012: R+46.9 2008: R+39.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.40%
• Current HPI: 200.187
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tyler, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+32.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — GTAR
• 2026-02-27 Listed $199,000 GTAR
• 2015-12-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-11-29 Sold (MLS) — GTAR
• 2015-10-14 Listed $149,900 GTAR
• 2013-05-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2008-04-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-04-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2024): $3,070 · -20.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.