53 Hounslow Rd · Shirley, NY 11967

$399,999

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,033 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 44 Days on market

Built 1974 5,227 sqft lot $197/sqft · 37% below area Est $638k · 37% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.6/10.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great opportunity for investors or buyers looking to add value. This 3-bedroom, 1 full and 1 half bath hi-ranch sits on a corner lot in Shirley with taxes under $10,000. The home needs work and is being sold as-is, making it ideal for a renovation or flip. Cash only.

Key facts

• 5,227 sq ft lot
• Built 1974
• Listed 44 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $400k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $400k).
• Recommended offer: $388k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 4.8% in Shirley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#886 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, amenities F.
• William Floyd Union Free School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #309 of 590 in NY (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 183 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $112k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($388k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $387,999 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.50%
• DSCR: 1.56
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $637,722
• List price: $399,999
• Delta: -37.28%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
45 Arrowhead Dr	0.46mi	3/3.0	2,112 (+4%)	5mo	$600,000	$284	62
118 Lexington Rd	0.37mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,137 (+5%)	4mo	$540,000	$253	61
63 Linden Ln	0.33mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,171 (+7%)	11mo	$600,000	$276	57
17 Ostend Cir	0.44mi	3/2.5	1,808 (-11%)	2mo	$510,000	$282	56
60 Heston Rd	0.21mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,250 (+11%)	10mo	$620,000	$276	53
28 Mastic Blvd	0.69mi	3/1.0	2,015 (-1%)	15mo	$420,000	$208	52
29 Bedford Ave	0.72mi	3/1.5	1,810 (-11%)	4mo	$550,000	$304	45
32 Rockledge Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,736 (-15%)	3mo	$520,000	$300	45
31 Windus	0.32mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,280 (+12%)	15mo	$670,000	$294	44
219 Floyd Rd	0.67mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,907 (-6%)	13mo	$600,000	$315	39
123 Hawthorne St	0.75mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,805 (-11%)	5mo	$579,000	$321	33
11 Reeves Pl	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,765 (-13%)	23mo	$610,000	$346	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $9,792
• Equity at exit: $59,641

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.94×
• Total profit: $105,362
• Equity at exit: $34,585

Cash invested: $112,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11967

• Home prices YoY: -33.1%
• Active inventory: 183
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,378 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,098
• Tax from tax record: −$817 /mo · $9,802/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,129
• Net cashflow: $1,167

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,900

Max offer price $399,999

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,394	-5% $1,280	+0% $1,167	+5% $1,054	+10% $941
Rent	-10% $742	-5% $955	+0% $1,167	+5% $1,380	+10% $1,592
Rate	-1.0pp $1,369	-0.5pp $1,269	base $1,167	+0.5pp $1,063	+1.0pp $958

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $100,000
• Closing costs: $12,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
357 Smith Rd Shirley, NY	3.0	2.0	2000	$6,500	$3.25	3d	1	0.89mi
14 Titmus Dr Mastic, NY	4.0	1.0	1428	$3,800	$2.66	44d	1	1.12mi
42 Revilo Ave Shirley, NY	3.0	2.0	2670	$5,000	$1.87	25d	1	1.13mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-04-07
   listed $399,999 Active 267-char remark

   Show marketing remark (267 chars)

   Great opportunity for investors or buyers looking to add value. This 3-bedroom, 1 full and 1 half bath hi-ranch sits on a corner lot in Shirley with taxes under $10,000. The home needs work and is being sold as-is, making it ideal for a renovation or flip. Cash only.

2. 2026-04-06
   historical
3. 2026-02-10
   price $419,999
4. 2025-12-29
   listed $449,000 Active
5. 2025-02-28
   soldstatus $385,000 Closed
6. 2025-01-24
   status Pending
7. 2025-01-03
   listed $399,000 Active
8. 2018-10-05
   soldstatus $130,000
9. 2017-02-24
   historical
10. 2017-02-03
    status Back On Market
11. 2017-02-03
    price $145,000
12. 2016-12-08
    historical
13. 2016-10-13
    historical
14. 2016-10-13
    listed $135,000 New
15. 2016-10-10
    price $139,000
16. 2016-09-28
    price $140,000
17. 2016-09-08
    listed $149,000 New
18. 2014-11-06
    historical
19. 2014-08-06
    listed $159,999
20. 2004-09-16
    soldstatus $200,000
21. 1987-05-04
    soldstatus $120,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $9,802 · $817/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,802 · $817/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $64,530
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,406
• − Property taxes: −$9,802
• − Insurance: −$2,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,162
• − Management: −$5,162
• − Depreciation: −$11,636
• Taxable income: $8,361
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,007
• After-tax cash flow: $11,999/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: William Floyd Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3618690
• Math proficiency: 48% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $70,564
• Composite: 46.79/100
• National rank: #2383
• State rank: #309 of 590 in NY

Livability — Shirley

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #886
• US rank: #17184

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shirley, NY
• City population: 27,266
• Population (ZIP): 27,266

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 25% Black 9% Two or more races 8% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 10% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -212.21%
• Current HPI: 428.8362
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+233.3% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Listed $399,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-06 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $419,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-29 Listed $449,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-28 Sold (MLS) $385,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-24 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-03 Listed $399,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-10-05 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records
• 2017-02-24 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-02-03 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-02-03 Price Changed $145,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-12-08 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-10-13 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-10-13 Listed $135,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-10-10 Price Changed $139,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-09-28 Price Changed $140,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-09-08 Listed $149,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-11-06 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-08-06 Listed $159,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-09-16 Sold (Public Records) $200,000 Public Records
• 1987-05-04 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,802 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.