39 Hartung Rd · Eldred, NY 12743

$119,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · Manufactured public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1981 1.60 ac lot $165/sqft · 42% below area Est $206k · 42% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• Appreciation +7.8/10.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice Mobile Home on 1.8+/- country acres. The home features living room, kitchen, three bedrooms and a full bath. Some recent renovations and upgrades include a new septic, drilled well, furnace and decks. Set on a quiet country road, but a short distance to shopping, schools and the Delaware River. The land is open around the home with a nice front lawn and then mostly wooded. Schedule your appointment to view this home today!

Key facts

• Decks
• Drilled well
• Furnace

Tags

• NEWER SEPTIC
• DRILLED WELL
• FURNACE
• DECKS
• QUIET AREA
• SHORT DISTANCE TO SHOPPING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Electric service by NYSEG; Propane available; Septic tank; Cable available; Phone available; Electricity connected; Trash collection (private); Underground utilities
• Home design: Manufactured house; Mobile home with land
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Slab foundation; Fuel tank(s) present
• Exterior features: Deck; Porch; Cleared lot with front yard; Level lot; Partially wooded; Private setting; Near schools and shops; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Includes a bedroom on the first floor
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Ducts; Kerosene heating option; No central cooling
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bath; Built-in features; Ceiling fan(s); Eat-in kitchen; Original details; Washer/dryer hookup
• Laundry & utility: Hall laundry; Washer/dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $119k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $236 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $119k).
• Recommended offer: $115k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 2.2% in Eldred — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Eldred Central School District (rural): math 33% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #495 of 590 in NY (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: George Ross Mackenzie Elementary School (math 22% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,577 of 2,108 statewide, top 77%, 242 students, 38% FRL); Eldred Junior-Senior High School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #946 of 1,100 statewide, top 88%, 230 students, 46% FRL).
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($823 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (5.6% local appreciation)).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($115k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $87k; 37% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $115,430 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.51%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $206,469
• List price: $119,000
• Delta: -42.36%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

5.63% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.41×
• Total profit: $46,827
• Equity at exit: $72,037

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.80×
• Total profit: $126,733
• Equity at exit: $128,308

Cash invested: $33,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12743

• Home prices YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 13
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,336 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax from tax record: −$145 /mo · $1,741/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$280
• Net cashflow: $236

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,036

Max offer price $119,000

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,750
• Closing costs: $3,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,000 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,000 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $119,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,000 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,000 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $119,000 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $119,000 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $119,000 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,000 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,000 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,000 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-05-11
    listed $119,000 Active 274-char remark
16. 2019-08-30
    soldstatus $87,000 Sold 431-char remark

    Show marketing remark (462 chars)

    Nice Mobile Home on 1.8+/- country acres. The home features living room, kitchen, three bedrooms and a full bath. Some recent renovations and upgrades include a new septic, drilled well, furnace and decks. Set on a quiet country road, but a short distance to shopping, schools and the Delaware River. The land is open around the home with a nice front lawn and then mostly wooded. Schedule your appointment to view this home today!, Beds Description: Y, Baths: Y

17. 2019-08-30
    soldstatus $87,000

    Show marketing remark (462 chars)

    Nice Mobile Home on 1.8+/- country acres. The home features living room, kitchen, three bedrooms and a full bath. Some recent renovations and upgrades include a new septic, drilled well, furnace and decks. Set on a quiet country road, but a short distance to shopping, schools and the Delaware River. The land is open around the home with a nice front lawn and then mostly wooded. Schedule your appointment to view this home today!, Beds Description: Y, Baths: Y

18. 2019-08-30
    soldstatus $87,000

    Show marketing remark (462 chars)

    Nice Mobile Home on 1.8+/- country acres. The home features living room, kitchen, three bedrooms and a full bath. Some recent renovations and upgrades include a new septic, drilled well, furnace and decks. Set on a quiet country road, but a short distance to shopping, schools and the Delaware River. The land is open around the home with a nice front lawn and then mostly wooded. Schedule your appointment to view this home today!, Beds Description: Y, Baths: Y

19. 2019-08-30
    soldstatus $87,000

    Show marketing remark (462 chars)

    Nice Mobile Home on 1.8+/- country acres. The home features living room, kitchen, three bedrooms and a full bath. Some recent renovations and upgrades include a new septic, drilled well, furnace and decks. Set on a quiet country road, but a short distance to shopping, schools and the Delaware River. The land is open around the home with a nice front lawn and then mostly wooded. Schedule your appointment to view this home today!, Beds Description: Y, Baths: Y

20. 2019-08-12
    status Pending 431-char remark

    Show marketing remark (431 chars)

    Nice Mobile Home on 1.8+/- country acres. The home features living room, kitchen, three bedrooms and a full bath. Some recent renovations and upgrades include a new septic, drilled well, furnace and decks. Set on a quiet country road, but a short distance to shopping, schools and the Delaware River. The land is open around the home with a nice front lawn and then mostly wooded. Schedule your appointment to view this home today!

21. 2019-07-08
    price $89,000 431-char remark

    Show marketing remark (431 chars)

    Nice Mobile Home on 1.8+/- country acres. The home features living room, kitchen, three bedrooms and a full bath. Some recent renovations and upgrades include a new septic, drilled well, furnace and decks. Set on a quiet country road, but a short distance to shopping, schools and the Delaware River. The land is open around the home with a nice front lawn and then mostly wooded. Schedule your appointment to view this home today!

22. 2019-05-17
    listed $89,000

    Show marketing remark (462 chars)

    Nice Mobile Home on 1.8+/- country acres. The home features living room, kitchen, three bedrooms and a full bath. Some recent renovations and upgrades include a new septic, drilled well, furnace and decks. Set on a quiet country road, but a short distance to shopping, schools and the Delaware River. The land is open around the home with a nice front lawn and then mostly wooded. Schedule your appointment to view this home today!, Beds Description: Y, Baths: Y

23. 2019-05-17
    listed $92,000 Active 431-char remark

    Show marketing remark (462 chars)

    Nice Mobile Home on 1.8+/- country acres. The home features living room, kitchen, three bedrooms and a full bath. Some recent renovations and upgrades include a new septic, drilled well, furnace and decks. Set on a quiet country road, but a short distance to shopping, schools and the Delaware River. The land is open around the home with a nice front lawn and then mostly wooded. Schedule your appointment to view this home today!, Beds Description: Y, Baths: Y

24. 2019-05-17
    listed $89,000

    Show marketing remark (462 chars)

    Nice Mobile Home on 1.8+/- country acres. The home features living room, kitchen, three bedrooms and a full bath. Some recent renovations and upgrades include a new septic, drilled well, furnace and decks. Set on a quiet country road, but a short distance to shopping, schools and the Delaware River. The land is open around the home with a nice front lawn and then mostly wooded. Schedule your appointment to view this home today!, Beds Description: Y, Baths: Y

25. 2017-08-07
    historical
26. 2017-02-07
    listed $98,900
27. 2016-06-13
    soldstatus $9,900
28. 2002-08-06
    soldstatus $11,500
29. 1987-05-05
    soldstatus $12,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,741 · $145/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,876 · $156/mo
• Expected delta: +$135/yr (+$11/mo · 7.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,027
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,666
• − Property taxes: −$1,741
• − Insurance: −$595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,282
• − Management: −$1,282
• − Depreciation: −$3,462
• Taxable income: $999
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$240
• After-tax cash flow: $2,597/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Eldred Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3610410
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $52,775
• Composite: 35.94/100
• National rank: #4800
• State rank: #495 of 590 in NY

Livability — Eldred

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 319

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,974 people
• By 2030: 65,609 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 58,878 · -14.6%
• By 2050: 52,500 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 39,941 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 28,880 · -58.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 8% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 5% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: R (+16.7) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.5pp · 2024: -16.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.7 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+10.4 2008: D+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.63%
• Current HPI: 407.7822
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+891.7% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Listed $119,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-08-30 Sold (MLS) $87,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-08-30 Sold (Public Records) $87,000 Public Records
• 2019-08-30 Sold (MLS) $87,000 PWMLS
• 2019-08-30 Sold (MLS) $87,000 PWMLS
• 2019-08-12 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-07-08 Price Changed $89,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-05-17 Listed $89,000 PWMLS
• 2019-05-17 Listed $89,000 PWMLS
• 2019-05-17 Listed $92,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-08-07 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-02-07 Listed $98,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-06-13 Sold (Public Records) $9,900 Public Records
• 2002-08-06 Sold (Public Records) $11,500 Public Records
• 1987-05-05 Sold (Public Records) $12,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,741 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.