5811 Senior St · Houston, TX 77016

$410,000

6 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,587 sqft · MultiFamily · 154 Days on market

Good condition $158/sqft · 10% above area Est $374k · 10% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.1/30.0
• Appreciation +9.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• ARV discount +3.2/15.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

Unit B is already tenant-occupied. Please do not disturb the tenants. Stunning new construction duplex featuring sleek modern finishes throughout. Each unit offers an open-concept layout with clean lines, contemporary fixtures, and thoughtfully designed living spaces filled with natural light. Ideal opportunity for House hacking or investment. Live in one unit and lease the other for immediate income potential. Units are equipped with Google Home smart features, offering added convenience, efficiency, and modern living at your fingertips.

Key facts

• Natural light
• Modern finishes
• Open-concept layout

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION DUPLEX
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• MODERN FINISHES
• NATURAL LIGHT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/2.0-bath units multifamily listed at $410k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-163 ($-2k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-82/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $386k (5.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $338k (17.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $338k (17.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 372 active listings in the ZIP; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,380/mo this rent would consume 85% of the median local household income ($48k/yr) (locally 1297% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $38k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $35k appreciation (8.7% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$61k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 154 days — a 12% lower offer ($361k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $338,000 (17.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 154 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
4. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.71%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $373,910
• List price: $410,000
• Delta: 9.65%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

8.65% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.46×
• Total profit: $167,232
• Equity at exit: $329,753

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.17×
• Total profit: $478,573
• Equity at exit: $672,788

Cash invested: $114,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77016

• Home prices YoY: 2.8%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 372
• Price-to-rent: 20.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,380 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,150
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$512 /mo · $6,150/yr
• Insurance: −$171
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$710
• Net cashflow: $-163

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,587

Max offer price $386,382

Occupancy floor 100%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	3	2	$3,380
Total (2 units)			$3,380

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $102,500
• Closing costs: $12,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   price $410,000 Active 154 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $420,000 Active 154 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $420,000 Active 153 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $420,000 Active 152 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $420,000 Active 151 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $420,000 Active 149 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $420,000 Active 145 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $420,000 Active 144 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $420,000 Active 143 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    remarks 549-char remark
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $420,000 Active 140 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $420,000 Active 137 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $420,000 Active 136 DOM
14. 2026-01-15
    listed $420,000 Active 544-char remark

    Show marketing remark (544 chars)

    Unit B is already tenant-occupied. Please do not disturb the tenants. Stunning new construction duplex featuring sleek modern finishes throughout. Each unit offers an open-concept layout with clean lines, contemporary fixtures, and thoughtfully designed living spaces filled with natural light. Ideal opportunity for House hacking or investment. Live in one unit and lease the other for immediate income potential. Units are equipped with Google Home smart features, offering added convenience, efficiency, and modern living at your fingertips.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,560
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,966
• − Property taxes: −$6,150
• − Insurance: −$2,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,245
• − Management: −$3,245
• − Depreciation: −$11,927
• Taxable loss: −$9,023
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,166
• After-tax cash flow: $207/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This modern, move-in-ready duplex features sleek finishes and an open-concept layout, ideal for investment or house hacking.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Smart home integration — Google Home smart features enhance convenience and modern living.
• Rental Landscaping improvements — Enhanced curb appeal can attract more tenants.
• Both Add a smart thermostat — Improves energy efficiency and comfort for both residents and potential buyers.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Smart home integration — Google Home smart features enhance convenience and modern living. ↑
• Rental Landscaping improvements — Enhanced curb appeal can attract more tenants. ↑
• Both Add a smart thermostat — Improves energy efficiency and comfort for both residents and potential buyers. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,841
• Household income: $47,677
• Rent vs Own: 38.8% rent · 61.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1297.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (56%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 56% Hispanic / Latino 42% Two or more races 28%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 37%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.65%
• Current HPI: 315.6765
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-01-15 Listed $420,000 HARMLS