205 Kennely Rd Unit A15 · Thomas, MI 48609

$129,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,240 sqft · Condo public records · 30 Days on market

Built 1971 $306/mo HOA · 19% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.5/30.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to easy, low-maintenance living in the highly desirable Swan Valley Condominium Association! This charming 2-bedroom, 2-bath condo offers a fantastic second-floor location with beautiful views overlooking the 6th hole of Swan Valley Golf Course--perfect for relaxing mornings or peaceful evenings. Inside, you'll find a comfortable and functional layout designed for everyday living and entertaining. The spacious living area flows nicely, while large windows invite in natural light and showcase the scenic golf course setting. The primary suite offers its own private bath, creating a perfect retreat at the end of the day. Low monthly fee. Accessibility is a standout feature here, with the added convenience of an electric chair lift providing easy access to the second floor-- making this home a great option for a variety of lifestyles. HOA fees are only $306 monthly Located in Thomas Township, you're just minutes from shopping, banking, restaurants, and entertainment, giving you the perfect blend of quiet community living with close-to-everything convenience. If you've been looking for a carefree lifestyle with a great view, this condo is definitely worth a look!

Key facts

• Close to restaurants
• Close to shopping
• $306 HOA

Tags

• VIEWS OVERLOOKING GOLF COURSE
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING
• CLOSE TO RESTAURANTS
• QUIET COMMUNITY LIVING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pets allowed (call for any restrictions)
• HOA & community: Swan Valley Condominium Association; Monthly association fee of $306; Association phone available

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with 1 parking space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sanitary sewer; Electric service
• Home design: Condominium (site condo); Condo/Apartment located on 2nd floor or above; Unit A15; Built in 1971; Second-floor unit (building A)
• Construction: Stucco construction; Slab foundation; Built in 1971
• Exterior features: Stucco exterior; Located on a road frontage; Golf course setting

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range/Oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Bedroom 1 on the main level (approximately 15 x 12) with carpet; Bedroom 2 on the main level (approximately 12 x 12) with carpet
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Ceramic
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Electric heat (baseboard); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Carpeted living areas; Vinyl dining room flooring; Ceramic kitchen flooring; Golf course view from the property

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $195 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $128k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Swan Valley School District (suburban): math 42% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #104 of 540 in MI (top 19%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 72 active listings in the ZIP; 154 units permitted in Saginaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Saginaw County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 11 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $127,951 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.42%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-8,513
• Equity at exit: $19,369

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.25×
• Total profit: $9,126
• Equity at exit: $11,231

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48609

• Home prices YoY: -34.2%
• Active inventory: 72
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,627 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$49 /mo · $592/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$306
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$342
• Net cashflow: $195

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,381

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $306 · $3,672/yr
• Likely covers: electric
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-04-28
   listed $129,900 Active 1185-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1185 chars)

   Welcome to easy, low-maintenance living in the highly desirable Swan Valley Condominium Association! This charming 2-bedroom, 2-bath condo offers a fantastic second-floor location with beautiful views overlooking the 6th hole of Swan Valley Golf Course--perfect for relaxing mornings or peaceful evenings. Inside, you'll find a comfortable and functional layout designed for everyday living and entertaining. The spacious living area flows nicely, while large windows invite in natural light and showcase the scenic golf course setting. The primary suite offers its own private bath, creating a perfect retreat at the end of the day. Low monthly fee. Accessibility is a standout feature here, with the added convenience of an electric chair lift providing easy access to the second floor-- making this home a great option for a variety of lifestyles. HOA fees are only $306 monthly Located in Thomas Township, you're just minutes from shopping, banking, restaurants, and entertainment, giving you the perfect blend of quiet community living with close-to-everything convenience. If you've been looking for a carefree lifestyle with a great view, this condo is definitely worth a look!

2. 2026-04-28
   listed $129,900 Active 1220-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1185 chars)

   Welcome to easy, low-maintenance living in the highly desirable Swan Valley Condominium Association! This charming 2-bedroom, 2-bath condo offers a fantastic second-floor location with beautiful views overlooking the 6th hole of Swan Valley Golf Course--perfect for relaxing mornings or peaceful evenings. Inside, you'll find a comfortable and functional layout designed for everyday living and entertaining. The spacious living area flows nicely, while large windows invite in natural light and showcase the scenic golf course setting. The primary suite offers its own private bath, creating a perfect retreat at the end of the day. Low monthly fee. Accessibility is a standout feature here, with the added convenience of an electric chair lift providing easy access to the second floor-- making this home a great option for a variety of lifestyles. HOA fees are only $306 monthly Located in Thomas Township, you're just minutes from shopping, banking, restaurants, and entertainment, giving you the perfect blend of quiet community living with close-to-everything convenience. If you've been looking for a carefree lifestyle with a great view, this condo is definitely worth a look!

3. 2023-05-11
   soldstatus $114,900
4. 2023-05-10
   soldstatus $114,900 Sold

   Show marketing remark (378 chars)

   Great opportunity to own this condo on Sway Valley Golf Course! This well maintained condo features master suite, walk-in closet, new refrigerator, microwave and oven range 2022, new garage opening system 2022, remodeled bathrooms and newer floor covering, beautiful golf course view from master suite and living room. Investors are welcome. Call for your private showing today!

5. 2023-05-10
   soldstatus $114,900 Closed

   Show marketing remark (378 chars)

   Great opportunity to own this condo on Sway Valley Golf Course! This well maintained condo features master suite, walk-in closet, new refrigerator, microwave and oven range 2022, new garage opening system 2022, remodeled bathrooms and newer floor covering, beautiful golf course view from master suite and living room. Investors are welcome. Call for your private showing today!

6. 2023-03-27
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (378 chars)

   Great opportunity to own this condo on Sway Valley Golf Course! This well maintained condo features master suite, walk-in closet, new refrigerator, microwave and oven range 2022, new garage opening system 2022, remodeled bathrooms and newer floor covering, beautiful golf course view from master suite and living room. Investors are welcome. Call for your private showing today!

7. 2023-03-27
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (378 chars)

   Great opportunity to own this condo on Sway Valley Golf Course! This well maintained condo features master suite, walk-in closet, new refrigerator, microwave and oven range 2022, new garage opening system 2022, remodeled bathrooms and newer floor covering, beautiful golf course view from master suite and living room. Investors are welcome. Call for your private showing today!

8. 2023-01-18
   listed $124,900 Active

   Show marketing remark (378 chars)

   Great opportunity to own this condo on Sway Valley Golf Course! This well maintained condo features master suite, walk-in closet, new refrigerator, microwave and oven range 2022, new garage opening system 2022, remodeled bathrooms and newer floor covering, beautiful golf course view from master suite and living room. Investors are welcome. Call for your private showing today!

9. 2023-01-18
   listed $124,900 Active

   Show marketing remark (378 chars)

   Great opportunity to own this condo on Sway Valley Golf Course! This well maintained condo features master suite, walk-in closet, new refrigerator, microwave and oven range 2022, new garage opening system 2022, remodeled bathrooms and newer floor covering, beautiful golf course view from master suite and living room. Investors are welcome. Call for your private showing today!

10. 2022-06-30
    soldstatus $109,900 Sold
11. 2022-06-30
    soldstatus $109,900 Closed
12. 2022-06-22
    soldstatus $109,900
13. 2022-05-30
    status Pending
14. 2022-05-30
    status Pending
15. 2022-05-25
    listed $109,900 Active
16. 2022-05-25
    listed $109,900 Active
17. 2019-06-19
    soldstatus $60,000
18. 2019-06-12
    soldstatus $60,000 Closed
19. 2019-06-03
    status Pending
20. 2019-05-03
    price $62,500
21. 2019-03-22
    price $65,000
22. 2019-02-15
    listed $67,500 Active
23. 2016-06-14
    soldstatus $42,500
24. 2016-06-08
    soldstatus $42,500 Sold
25. 2016-06-08
    soldstatus $42,500 Closed
26. 2016-05-11
    historical
27. 2016-04-27
    status Pending
28. 2016-04-27
    status Pending
29. 2016-04-22
    listed $49,900 Active
30. 2016-01-20
    listed $49,900 Active
31. 2010-02-04
    historical
32. 2010-02-04
    historical
33. 2009-08-04
    listed $68,900
34. 2009-08-04
    listed $68,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $592 · $49/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,296 · $108/mo
• Expected delta: +$704/yr (+$59/mo · 119.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,523
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$592
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,562
• − Management: −$1,562
• − HOA: −$3,672
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable income: $430
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$103
• After-tax cash flow: $2,232/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Swan Valley School District
• NCES district ID: 2633410
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $54,994
• Composite: 42.38/100
• National rank: #3241
• State rank: #104 of 540 in MI

Livability — Thomas

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shields, MI
• Population (ZIP): 12,206

Population outlook (Saginaw County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 180,568 people
• By 2030: 172,302 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 153,919 · -14.8%
• By 2050: 135,519 · -24.9%
• By 2075: 97,199 · -46.2%
• By 2100: 65,037 · -64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Lithuanian 5% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Other Indo-European 6% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Saginaw

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 17.3pp · 2024: -3.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.3 2020: D+0.3 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+11.9 2008: D+17.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.03%
• Current HPI: 179.2881
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+68.4% since first listed

39 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $116,000 Public Records
• 2026-05-29 Sold (MLS) $116,000 WWMLS
• 2026-05-29 Sold (MLS) $116,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-28 Pending — WWMLS
• 2026-05-28 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-28 Listed $129,900 WWMLS
• 2026-04-28 Listed $129,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-05-11 Sold (Public Records) $114,900 Public Records
• 2023-05-10 Sold (MLS) $114,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-05-10 Sold (MLS) $114,900 REALCOMP
• 2023-03-27 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2023-03-27 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-01-18 Listed $124,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-01-18 Listed $124,900 REALCOMP
• 2022-06-30 Sold (MLS) $109,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-06-30 Sold (MLS) $109,900 REALCOMP
• 2022-06-22 Sold (Public Records) $109,900 Public Records
• 2022-05-30 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2022-05-30 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-05-25 Listed $109,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-05-25 Listed $109,900 REALCOMP
• 2019-06-19 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 2019-06-12 Sold (MLS) $60,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2019-06-03 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2019-05-03 Price Changed $62,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2019-03-22 Price Changed $65,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2019-02-15 Listed $67,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2016-06-14 Sold (Public Records) $42,500 Public Records
• 2016-06-08 Sold (MLS) $42,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2016-06-08 Sold (MLS) $42,500 REALCOMP
• 2016-05-11 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2016-04-27 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2016-04-27 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2016-04-22 Listed $49,900 REALCOMP
• 2016-01-20 Listed $49,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2010-02-04 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2010-02-04 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2009-08-04 Listed $68,900 REALCOMP
• 2009-08-04 Listed $68,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

-6.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $592 · -70.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.