460 Marty Allen Loop · Jarrell, TX 76537

$186,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,287 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 2023 Good condition 4,403 sqft lot Est $242k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to a well-maintained 2-story home that's just right! This gem features an open floorplan with the living area and kitchen on the main floor. All bedrooms are on the upper level and are carpeted. The main bedroom features a bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• 4,403 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 2023

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Part of Cielo Gardens HOA

Exterior

• Parking: Garage with 1 car space
• Utilities: Electricity available; Public water
• Home design: Two-story home; HardiPlank-type exterior
• Construction: Shingle/composition roof; Slab foundation; Built (year source: assessor)
• Exterior features: Back yard with wood fencing; Asphalt road access; City lot, less than quarter acre

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Some electric appliances
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the upper level
• Flooring: Carpet; Luxury vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (one unit)
• Interior features: All bedrooms are on the upper level; Kitchen/dining combo; Tub/shower; Vanity; Walk-in closet(s); Solid surface counters
• Laundry & utility: Stacked laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $186k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $9 ($103/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $186k).
• Recommended offer: $183k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.7% in Jarrell — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#313 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Jarrell ISD (rural): math 19% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #713 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Jarrell El (math 19% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,277 of 4,322 statewide, top 77%, 785 students, 62% FRL); Jarrell Middle (math 21% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,258 of 1,662 statewide, top 77%, 741 students, 64% FRL); Jarrell H S (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,112 of 1,632 statewide, top 70%, 868 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 773 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($183k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.

Recommended offer $183,210 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.20%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $241,956
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
215 Carmel Canyon Trl	0.38mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,308 (+2%)	1mo	$249,900	$191	74
132 Desert Hare Dr	0.37mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,308 (+2%)	3mo	$245,900	$188	73
207 Carmel Canyon Trl	0.37mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,308 (+2%)	4mo	$242,900	$186	72
317 Carmel Canyon Trl	0.38mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,308 (+2%)	3mo	$245,900	$188	72
208 Carmel Canyon Trl	0.40mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,308 (+2%)	5mo	$242,900	$186	70
305 Carmel Canyon Trl	0.39mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,308 (+2%)	6mo	$242,900	$186	69
140 Wirepass Crst	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,305 (+1%)	1mo	$283,900	$218	66
129 Paria Ct	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,305 (+1%)	4mo	$279,900	$214	61
313 Carmel Canyon Trl	0.37mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,413 (+10%)	1mo	$259,900	$184	61
117 Paria Ct	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,305 (+1%)	6mo	$276,900	$212	59
211 Carmel Canyon Trl	0.38mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,413 (+10%)	3mo	$255,900	$181	59
204 Carmel Canyon Trl	0.39mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,413 (+10%)	6mo	$252,900	$179	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-34,982
• Equity at exit: $27,733

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-50,550
• Equity at exit: $16,082

Cash invested: $52,080 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76537

• Home prices YoY: -14.4%
• Rents YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 773
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,890 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$975
• Tax from tax record: −$432 /mo · $5,178/yr
• Insurance: −$78
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$397
• Net cashflow: $9

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,879

Max offer price $186,000

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $114	-5% $61	+0% $9	+5% $-44	+10% $-97
Rent	-10% $-141	-5% $-66	+0% $9	+5% $83	+10% $158
Rate	-1.0pp $102	-0.5pp $56	base $9	+0.5pp $-40	+1.0pp $-89

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,500
• Closing costs: $5,580
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
451 Marty Allen Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,750	$1.35	14d	1	0.02mi
704 Commander Abbott Dr Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.5	1625	$1,550	$0.95	45d	1	0.05mi
604 Marty Allen Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,575	$1.21	14d	1	0.10mi
344 Marty Allen Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1360	$1,595	$1.17	14d	1	0.12mi
583 Commander Abbott Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,595	$1.42	45d	1	0.15mi
309 Marty Allen Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1286	$1,545	$1.20	14d	1	0.16mi
212 Marty Allen Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,750	$1.25	14d	1	0.20mi
128 Desert Hare Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1413	$1,940	$1.37	18d	1	0.36mi
101 W Luna Blue Ln Jarrell, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1906	$3,710	$1.95	0d	1	0.44mi
509 Scarborough Cv Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,895	$1.24	14d	1	0.94mi
152 Scarborough Bnd Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1347	$1,545	$1.15	45d	1	0.95mi
520 Locksley Cv Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1803	$1,850	$1.03	19d	1	0.96mi
225 Wincanton Ln Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,645	$0.92	25d	1	0.98mi
364 Crescent Park Dr Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,895	$1.06	6d	1	0.99mi
113 Sunnymeade Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1428	$1,650	$1.16	0d	1	1.00mi
116 Somerdale Pass Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,645	$0.92	23d	1	1.00mi
100 Stratton Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1438	$1,630	$1.13	25d	1	1.00mi
217 Sunnymeade Ln Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,695	$0.94	0d	1	1.03mi
132 Somerdale Pass Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1438	$1,630	$1.13	5d	1	1.03mi
117 Stratton Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1436	$1,630	$1.14	19d	1	1.05mi
132 Stratton Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1438	$1,630	$1.13	19d	1	1.06mi
220 Crescent Park Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1438	$1,630	$1.13	6d	1	1.07mi
217 Riverdale Dr Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,645	$0.92	45d	1	1.07mi
309 Riverdale Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1536	$1,650	$1.07	0d	1	1.10mi
101 Fairfax Ln Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,850	$1.03	14d	1	1.10mi
313 Riverdale Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1428	$1,500	$1.05	19d	1	1.10mi
329 Sunnymeade Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,595	$1.05	19d	1	1.10mi
604 Double Vision Rd Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1644	$1,795	$1.09	15d	1	1.12mi
604 Double Vision Rd Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1644	$1,795	$1.09	21d	1	1.12mi
100 Bailey Kay Ct Unit B Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1527	$1,600	$1.05	45d	1	1.12mi
108 Allington Cir Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,750	$0.98	3d	1	1.12mi
405 Riverdale Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1428	$1,550	$1.09	25d	1	1.12mi
341 Sunnymeade Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,595	$1.05	14d	1	1.13mi
109 Everett Ct Unit B Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1527	$1,700	$1.11	6d	1	1.13mi
136 Maywood Ln Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,725	$0.96	4d	1	1.13mi
100 Everett Ct Unit B Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1528	$1,600	$1.05	45d	1	1.14mi
105 Everett Ct Unit B Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1528	$1,650	$1.08	45d	1	1.15mi
121 Maybelline Rd Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1644	$1,800	$1.09	14d	1	1.17mi
313 Riverdale Cv Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1428	$1,500	$1.05	25d	1	1.19mi
111 Stockton Family Ct Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1319	$1,500	$1.14	23d	1	1.19mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $186,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $186,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $186,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $186,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $186,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $186,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $186,000 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $186,000 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 259-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    listed $186,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,178 · $432/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,178 · $432/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,678
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,419
• − Property taxes: −$5,178
• − Insurance: −$930
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,814
• − Management: −$1,814
• − Depreciation: −$5,411
• Taxable loss: −$2,888
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$693
• After-tax cash flow: $796/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 11 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained 2-story home features an open floorplan and is ready for immediate move-in. Minor updates to the exterior trim and blinds would further enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace blinds — Improves natural light and aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace blinds — Improves natural light and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jarrell ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824600
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $57,132
• Composite: 21.47/100
• National rank: #8335
• State rank: #713 of 826 in TX

Livability — Jarrell

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #313
• US rank: #7020

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Williamson County · 680,029 people
• City population: 16,272
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,272
• Household income: $98,199
• Rent vs Own: 20.5% rent · 79.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 225.0

Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 699,027 people
• By 2030: 795,537 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 990,683 · +41.7%
• By 2050: 1,184,292 · +69.4%
• By 2075: 1,623,825 · +132.3%
• By 2100: 1,924,153 · +175.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 14% Black 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 26% Chinese 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 50.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.6pp toward D · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: D+1.4 2016: R+9.9 2012: R+21.5 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.03%
• Current HPI: 184.8935
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.73%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+11525.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $186,000 CTXMLS
• 2026-03-11 Rental Removed $1,599 ACTRIS
• 2025-10-08 Price Changed $1,599 ACTRIS
• 2025-09-11 Listed for Rent $1,600 ACTRIS
• 2025-07-23 Listed — Unlock MLS

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $5,178 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.