2409 Starling Cir W · Palmview, TX 78572

$60,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 764 sqft · Manufactured public records · 152 Days on market

Built 1994 2,874 sqft lot $79/sqft · 20% above area Est $50k · 20% over $75/mo HOA · 7% of rent ↓ 29% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this fully furnished 1-bedroom, 1-bath home located in the desirable 55+ gated community of Green Gate Grove. Originally built in 1994, this travel trailer with a well-designed addition offers a total of 764 square feet of comfortable living space with modern updates throughout the addition. The home features laminate flooring, a functional kitchen, and a nicely appointed bathroom. Mini-split systems provide efficient heating and air conditioning year-round. A separate storage room with laundry adds convenience and extra usable space, ideal for hobbies or additional storage. Thoughtfully maintained and move-in ready, this home is suitable for full-time living or seasonal use. Residents of Green Gate Grove enjoy a gated setting along with many community amenities, offering an active and relaxed lifestyle.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Functional kitchen
• Modern updates

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• FUNCTIONAL KITCHEN
• SEPARATE STORAGE ROOM
• MINI-SPLIT SYSTEMS
• MODERN UPDATES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $60k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $340 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $60k).
• Recommended offer: $53k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.1% vs local median 4.2% in Palmview — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,267 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: crime D, schools F, amenities F.
• La Joya ISD (suburban): math 18% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #759 of 826 in TX (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 852 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $415 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.9% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 152 days — a 12% lower offer ($53k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 94% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $52,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 152 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.73% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.27%
• DSCR: 2.08
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $49,900
• List price: $60,000
• Delta: 20.24%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2423 Bobolink Cir E #299	0.05mi	2/1.5	800 (+5%)	17mo	$99,750	$125	74
59 Lampshire Ave	0.37mi	1/1.0 (-1)	736 (-4%)	12mo	$75,000	$102	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.93% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.59×
• Total profit: $9,853
• Equity at exit: $8,946

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.69×
• Total profit: $28,329
• Equity at exit: $5,188

Cash invested: $16,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78572

• Home prices YoY: -22.9%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 852
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,038 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$315
• Tax from tax record: −$66 /mo · $792/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$75
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$218
• Net cashflow: $340

Break-even live

Break-even rent $608

Max offer price $60,000

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $374	-5% $357	+0% $340	+5% $323	+10% $306
Rent	-10% $258	-5% $299	+0% $340	+5% $381	+10% $422
Rate	-1.0pp $370	-0.5pp $355	base $340	+0.5pp $324	+1.0pp $308

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $15,000
• Closing costs: $1,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4321 Royal Palm Dr Mission, TX	2.0	1.0	572	$800	$1.40	24d	1	0.48mi
2508 U.S. 83 Business Unit 16 Mission, TX	2.0	1.0	650	$730	$1.12	24d	1	1.23mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $75 · $900/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $60,000 Active 152 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $60,000 Active 151 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $60,000 Active 150 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $60,000 Active 149 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $60,000 Active 147 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $60,000 Active 146 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $60,000 Active 144 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $60,000 Active 143 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $60,000 Active 142 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $60,000 Active 141 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $60,000 Active 138 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $60,000 Active 137 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $60,000 Active 136 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $60,000 Active 135 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $60,000 Active 134 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $60,000 Active 133 DOM
17. 2026-01-17
    listed $60,000 Active 830-char remark

    Show marketing remark (830 chars)

    Welcome to this fully furnished 1-bedroom, 1-bath home located in the desirable 55+ gated community of Green Gate Grove. Originally built in 1994, this travel trailer with a well-designed addition offers a total of 764 square feet of comfortable living space with modern updates throughout the addition. The home features laminate flooring, a functional kitchen, and a nicely appointed bathroom. Mini-split systems provide efficient heating and air conditioning year-round. A separate storage room with laundry adds convenience and extra usable space, ideal for hobbies or additional storage. Thoughtfully maintained and move-in ready, this home is suitable for full-time living or seasonal use. Residents of Green Gate Grove enjoy a gated setting along with many community amenities, offering an active and relaxed lifestyle.

18. 2025-12-02
    price $60,000
19. 2025-11-30
    listed $69,000 Active
20. 2025-10-10
    price $69,000
21. 2025-10-06
    listed $70,000 Active
22. 2025-09-20
    price $69,999
23. 2025-09-08
    price $80,000
24. 2025-07-26
    listed $79,999 Active
25. 2025-03-30
    price $84,000
26. 2025-01-19
    listed $85,000 Active
27. 2008-12-30
    soldstatus
28. 2002-03-28
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $792 · $66/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,098 · $92/mo
• Expected delta: +$306/yr (+$26/mo · 38.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 94% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,461
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,361
• − Property taxes: −$792
• − Insurance: −$300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$997
• − Management: −$997
• − HOA: −$900
• − Depreciation: −$1,745
• Taxable income: $3,369
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$809
• After-tax cash flow: $3,268/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: La Joya ISD
• NCES district ID: 4826130
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -35.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $27,845
• Composite: 18.65/100
• National rank: #8891
• State rank: #759 of 826 in TX

Livability — Palmview

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1267
• US rank: #22043

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Palmview, TX
• County: Hidalgo County · 623,128 people
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• Population (ZIP): 78,024
• Household income: $54,298
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1714.0

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 85% Two or more races 47% White 12% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 80%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Portuguese 0%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 22% English-only · Spanish 76%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -62.35%
• Current HPI: 209.3573
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.93%
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-29.4% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-17 Listed $60,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-12-02 Price Changed $60,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-11-30 Listed $69,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-10-10 Price Changed $69,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-10-06 Listed $70,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-09-20 Price Changed $69,999 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-09-08 Price Changed $80,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-07-26 Listed $79,999 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-03-30 Price Changed $84,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-01-19 Listed $85,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2008-12-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2002-03-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $792 · +18.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.