163 Chaco Trl · Bracey, VA 23919

$119,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · SingleFamily · 84 Days on market

Built 2008 7,840 sqft lot $94/sqft · 19% below area Est $148k · 19% under $67/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.7/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Why not take this excellent opportunity to buy in the waterfront community of River Ridge Golf & Camping Club. Conveniently located to Richmond and Raleigh. This nice home features 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, MBR with walk in closet, spacious open concept living area and an eat in kitchen. Property has brand new roof!! Community amenities include swimming pools, tennis, basketball & pickleball courts, fishing pond, fishing pier, club houses, play grounds, community boat launch and day slips as well as a security gate for entrance. Must bring your favorite Realtor to see properties.

Key facts

• 7,840 sq ft lot
• Built 2008
• Listed 84 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $678 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $113k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.1% vs local median 2.5% in Bracey — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#421 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Mecklenburg County Public School District (rural): math 57% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #49 of 131 in VA (top 37%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 110 active listings in the ZIP; 153 units permitted in Mecklenburg County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($829 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
• Mecklenburg County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $69k; list at $120k implies a 74% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $112,706 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.66% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.25%
• DSCR: 2.08
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $148,461
• List price: $119,900
• Delta: -19.24%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
301 Boardman Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,280 (0%)	1mo	$140,000	$109	94
37 Iowa Trl	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,296 (+1%)	8mo	$267,500	$206	86
150 Ford	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,196 (-7%)	14mo	$79,000	$66	64
141 Cimmarron Trl	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+14%)	14mo	$55,000	$38	61
31 Feather Trl	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,120 (-12%)	13mo	$184,000	$164	58
599 Boardman Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,120 (-12%)	21mo	$200,000	$179	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.42% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.43×
• Total profit: $48,004
• Equity at exit: $43,577

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.67×
• Total profit: $123,354
• Equity at exit: $60,014

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23919

• Home prices YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 110
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,992 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$150 /mo · $1,798/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$67
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$418
• Net cashflow: $678

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,134

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 61%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $761	-5% $720	+0% $678	+5% $637	+10% $595
Rent	-10% $521	-5% $600	+0% $678	+5% $757	+10% $836
Rate	-1.0pp $739	-0.5pp $709	base $678	+0.5pp $647	+1.0pp $616

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $67 · $804/yr
• Likely covers: waterlandscapingpoolsecurity

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,900 Active 84 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,900 Active 83 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,900 Active 82 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,900 Active 81 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $119,900 Active 79 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,900 Active 78 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $119,900 Active 76 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,900 Active 75 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,900 Active 74 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $119,900 Active 73 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $119,900 Active 70 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $119,900 Active 69 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,900 Active 68 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,900 Active 67 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,900 Active 66 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,900 Active 65 DOM
17. 2026-05-08
    price $119,900 598-char remark

    Show marketing remark (598 chars)

    Why not take this excellent opportunity to buy in the waterfront community of River Ridge Golf & Camping Club. Conveniently located to Richmond and Raleigh. This nice home features 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, MBR with walk in closet, spacious open concept living area and an eat in kitchen. Property has brand new roof!! Community amenities include swimming pools, tennis, basketball & pickleball courts, fishing pond, fishing pier, club houses, play grounds, community boat launch and day slips as well as a security gate for entrance. Must bring your favorite Realtor to see properties.

18. 2026-03-26
    listed $129,900 Active 598-char remark

    Show marketing remark (598 chars)

    Why not take this excellent opportunity to buy in the waterfront community of River Ridge Golf & Camping Club. Conveniently located to Richmond and Raleigh. This nice home features 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, MBR with walk in closet, spacious open concept living area and an eat in kitchen. Property has brand new roof!! Community amenities include swimming pools, tennis, basketball & pickleball courts, fishing pond, fishing pier, club houses, play grounds, community boat launch and day slips as well as a security gate for entrance. Must bring your favorite Realtor to see properties.

19. 2025-12-04
    price $105,000
20. 2025-11-17
    status Active
21. 2025-11-04
    status Pending
22. 2025-10-24
    listed $115,000 Active
23. 2020-10-06
    soldstatus $69,000
24. 2020-03-12
    soldstatus $21,000
25. 2005-05-16
    soldstatus $30,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,908
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$1,798
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,913
• − Management: −$1,913
• − HOA: −$804
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable income: $6,676
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,602
• After-tax cash flow: $6,538/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mecklenburg County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102460
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $37,491
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1446
• State rank: #49 of 131 in VA

Livability — Bracey

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #421
• US rank: #18014

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bracey, VA
• City population: 2,096
• Population (ZIP): 2,096

Population outlook (Mecklenburg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,332 people
• By 2030: 26,742 · -5.6%
• By 2040: 23,502 · -17.0%
• By 2050: 20,851 · -26.4%
• By 2075: 17,525 · -38.1%
• By 2100: 14,524 · -48.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Black 10% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Russian 5% Slovak 3% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mecklenburg

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 39.4% · R 60.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.2pp toward R · 2008: -4.6pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+15.2 2016: R+11.3 2012: R+7.2 2008: R+4.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.42%
• Current HPI: 204.6074
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+299.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $119,900 RVLG
• 2026-03-26 Listed $129,900 RVLG
• 2025-12-04 Price Changed $105,000 CVRMLS
• 2025-11-17 Relisted — CVRMLS
• 2025-11-04 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2025-10-24 Listed $115,000 CVRMLS
• 2020-10-06 Sold (Public Records) $69,000 Public Records
• 2020-03-12 Sold (Public Records) $21,000 Public Records
• 2005-05-16 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $30 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.