304 5th St · Menlo, IA 50164

$150,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,664 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 62 Days on market

Built 1910 0.31 ac lot $90/sqft · 25% below area Est $199k · 25% under ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming small-town living with extra space to grow! This 4-bedroom, 2-bath home in Menlo, Iowa offers just under 1,700 square feet and was built in the early 1900s, showcasing timeless character and a functional layout. With generously sized bedrooms and comfortable living spaces, this home provides plenty of room for family, guests, or even a home office. One of the standout features of this property is the additional lot being sold with the home, giving you expanded yard space and endless possibilities. Whether you're looking to build a garage or shop, create a large outdoor entertaining area, or simply enjoy extra room to spread out, this added space is a rare find. Located in a quiet, welcoming community, this property offers the charm of small-town living with the flexibility to make it your own. Whether you're a first-time buyer, investor, or someone looking for more space at an affordable price, this home is full of potential and opportunity. Lot next door is being sold with the property.

Key facts

• Additional lot
• Expanded yard space
• Quiet community

Tags

• ADDITIONAL LOT
• EXPANDED YARD SPACE
• QUIET COMMUNITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $42 ($506/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $123k (18.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $123k (18.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#745 in IA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools F, amenities F.
• West Central Valley Community School District (rural): math 68% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #115 of 289 in IA (top 40%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 5 active listings in the ZIP; 21 units permitted in Guthrie County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• Guthrie County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $122,845 (18.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.21%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $199,000
• List price: $150,000
• Delta: -24.62%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
410 Sheridan St	0.05mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,544 (-7%)	9mo	$297,000	$192	74
508 6th St	0.20mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,683 (+1%)	16mo	$211,500	$126	68
505 1st St	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,560 (-6%)	5mo	$162,000	$104	66
412 North St	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,537 (-8%)	22mo	$155,000	$101	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.78% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.64×
• Total profit: $26,964
• Equity at exit: $74,101

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.02×
• Total profit: $84,693
• Equity at exit: $119,667

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Iowa: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; mostly landlord-friendly statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 50164

• Home prices YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 5
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,228 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$79 /mo · $950/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$258
• Net cashflow: $42

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,175

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 61 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 60 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 59 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   pricedays on market $150,000 Active 57 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $165,000 Active 54 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 53 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,000 Active 52 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $165,000 Active 51 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $165,000 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,000 Active 46 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 45 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 44 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 43 DOM
15. 2026-05-18
    price $165,000 1011-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1011 chars)

    Charming small-town living with extra space to grow! This 4-bedroom, 2-bath home in Menlo, Iowa offers just under 1,700 square feet and was built in the early 1900s, showcasing timeless character and a functional layout. With generously sized bedrooms and comfortable living spaces, this home provides plenty of room for family, guests, or even a home office. One of the standout features of this property is the additional lot being sold with the home, giving you expanded yard space and endless possibilities. Whether you're looking to build a garage or shop, create a large outdoor entertaining area, or simply enjoy extra room to spread out, this added space is a rare find. Located in a quiet, welcoming community, this property offers the charm of small-town living with the flexibility to make it your own. Whether you're a first-time buyer, investor, or someone looking for more space at an affordable price, this home is full of potential and opportunity. Lot next door is being sold with the property.

16. 2026-04-17
    listed $175,000 Active 1011-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1011 chars)

    Charming small-town living with extra space to grow! This 4-bedroom, 2-bath home in Menlo, Iowa offers just under 1,700 square feet and was built in the early 1900s, showcasing timeless character and a functional layout. With generously sized bedrooms and comfortable living spaces, this home provides plenty of room for family, guests, or even a home office. One of the standout features of this property is the additional lot being sold with the home, giving you expanded yard space and endless possibilities. Whether you're looking to build a garage or shop, create a large outdoor entertaining area, or simply enjoy extra room to spread out, this added space is a rare find. Located in a quiet, welcoming community, this property offers the charm of small-town living with the flexibility to make it your own. Whether you're a first-time buyer, investor, or someone looking for more space at an affordable price, this home is full of potential and opportunity. Lot next door is being sold with the property.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $950 · $79/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,652 · $138/mo
• Expected delta: +$702/yr (+$59/mo · 73.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,741
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$950
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,179
• − Management: −$1,179
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$2,083
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$500
• After-tax cash flow: $1,006/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Central Valley Community School District
• NCES district ID: 1927500
• Math proficiency: 68% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 75% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $53,933
• Composite: 60.96/100
• National rank: #803
• State rank: #115 of 289 in IA

Livability — Menlo

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #745
• US rank: #17108

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Menlo, IA
• Population (ZIP): 677

Population outlook (Guthrie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,248 people
• By 2030: 9,993 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 9,440 · -7.9%
• By 2050: 8,926 · -12.9%
• By 2075: 8,466 · -17.4%
• By 2100: 7,842 · -23.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 6% Lithuanian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Guthrie

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+38.0) · D 30.3% · R 68.2% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.3pp toward R · 2008: -7.7pp · 2024: -38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+38.0 2020: R+35.9 2016: R+33.3 2012: R+10.2 2008: R+7.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.78%
• Current HPI: 150.6086
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$16B
▸Retail / Convenience	1	$15B

Price history

-5.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $165,000 DMMLS
• 2026-04-17 Listed $175,000 DMMLS

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $950 · +7.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.