915 NE 1st St · Mineral Wells, TX 76067

$94,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,046 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 88 Days on market

Built 1970 4,487 sqft lot $91/sqft · 38% below area Est $153k · 38% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The property is sold As-Is, Where-Is. Seller has no knowledge, buyer should perform their due diligence and make their own assessments.

Key facts

• 4,487 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 1970

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $448 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $89k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.0% vs local median 2.7% in Mineral Wells — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#278 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, employment D, schools F.
• Mineral Wells ISD (town): math 30% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #636 of 826 in TX (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 277 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 27 units permitted in Palo Pinto County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $656 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Palo Pinto County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($89k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $89,206 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.58% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.25%
• DSCR: 1.90
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $152,934
• List price: $94,900
• Delta: -37.95%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1016 SE 3rd St	0.23mi	3/1.0	1,008 (-4%)	7mo	$125,000	$124	77
716 SE 7th Ave	0.41mi	3/1.0	1,050 (+0%)	11mo	$149,900	$143	71
403 NE 7th Ave	0.15mi	3/1.0	960 (-8%)	11mo	$154,000	$160	70
805 NE 1st St	0.05mi	3/1.0	975 (-7%)	23mo	$185,000	$190	67
1405 SE 8 1/2 St	0.59mi	3/1.0	1,055 (+1%)	6mo	$167,500	$159	66
1210 SE 2nd St	0.23mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,050 (+0%)	21mo	$179,000	$170	62
2311 2nd St	0.69mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,000 (-4%)	3mo	$55,000	$55	53
1000 SE 6th Ave	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,040 (-1%)	21mo	$188,700	$181	48
813 Martin Luther King Jr St	0.41mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,088 (+4%)	23mo	$129,900	$119	46
808 SE 8 1/2 St	0.56mi	2/2.0 (-1)	994 (-5%)	22mo	$99,500	$100	38
1201 SE 11th Ave	0.72mi	3/1.5	1,160 (+11%)	11mo	$62,500	$54	37
116 NW 11th St	0.71mi	2/2.0 (-1)	912 (-13%)	16mo	$169,900	$186	23

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.50×
• Total profit: $13,245
• Equity at exit: $14,150

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.83×
• Total profit: $48,583
• Equity at exit: $8,205

Cash invested: $26,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76067

• Active inventory: 277
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,495 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$196 /mo · $2,347/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$314
• Net cashflow: $448

Break-even live

Break-even rent $928

Max offer price $94,900

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $502	-5% $475	+0% $448	+5% $421	+10% $395
Rent	-10% $330	-5% $389	+0% $448	+5% $507	+10% $566
Rate	-1.0pp $496	-0.5pp $472	base $448	+0.5pp $424	+1.0pp $399

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,725
• Closing costs: $2,847
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
513 SE 6th St Unit 6 Mineral Wells, TX	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,350	$1.12	44d	1	0.41mi
1106 SE 12th St Mineral Wells, TX	3.0	2.0	1422	$1,700	$1.20	5d	1	0.76mi
1911 SE 14th St Mineral Wells, TX	3.0	2.0	1256	$1,600	$1.27	25d	1	0.99mi
3001 NE 2nd St Mineral Wells, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	909	$1,200	$1.32	2d	10	1.07mi
1912 SE 15th St Mineral Wells, TX	3.0	1.5	1043	$1,700	$1.63	25d	1	1.08mi

Listing history 48 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $94,900 Active 88 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $94,900 Active 87 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $94,900 Active 86 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $94,900 Active 85 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $94,900 Active 84 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $94,900 Active 82 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $94,900 Active 81 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $94,900 Active 78 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $94,900 Active 77 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $94,900 Active 76 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $94,900 Active 75 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $94,900 Active 72 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    price $94,900 Active 71 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $104,900 Active 71 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $104,900 Active 70 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $104,900 Active 69 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $104,900 Active 68 DOM
18. 2026-04-28
    price $104,900 135-char remark

    Show marketing remark (135 chars)

    The property is sold As-Is, Where-Is. Seller has no knowledge, buyer should perform their due diligence and make their own assessments.

19. 2026-03-23
    listed $115,000 Active 135-char remark

    Show marketing remark (135 chars)

    The property is sold As-Is, Where-Is. Seller has no knowledge, buyer should perform their due diligence and make their own assessments.

20. 2026-03-19
    historical
21. 2025-09-19
    listed $125,000 Active
22. 2025-08-19
    historical
23. 2025-07-28
    price $97,000
24. 2025-07-28
    status Active
25. 2025-07-21
    status Pending
26. 2025-07-11
    historical Active Option Contract
27. 2025-06-09
    price $110,000
28. 2025-04-15
    status Active
29. 2025-04-13
    status Pending
30. 2025-04-03
    historical Active Option Contract
31. 2025-03-27
    listed $126,000 Active
32. 2023-11-30
    soldstatus
33. 2023-11-22
    soldstatus Closed
34. 2023-11-11
    status Pending
35. 2023-11-03
    status Active
36. 2023-10-27
    status Pending
37. 2023-10-24
    historical Active Option Contract
38. 2023-10-20
    listed $60,000 Active
39. 2022-09-12
    soldstatus
40. 2011-02-15
    soldstatus
41. 2011-02-02
    historical
42. 2010-12-22
    listed $49,900 Active
43. 2007-03-07
    soldstatus
44. 2007-03-06
    soldstatus
45. 2007-02-16
    historical
46. 2007-02-12
    listed $29,000
47. 2005-11-28
    soldstatus
48. 2003-08-21
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,347 · $196/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,347 · $196/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 16% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,941
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,316
• − Property taxes: −$2,347
• − Insurance: −$474
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,435
• − Management: −$1,435
• − Depreciation: −$2,761
• Taxable income: $4,172
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,001
• After-tax cash flow: $4,378/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mineral Wells ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830950
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $40,027
• Composite: 25.26/100
• National rank: #7500
• State rank: #636 of 826 in TX

Livability — Mineral Wells

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #278
• US rank: #6474

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mineral Wells, TX
• County: Palo Pinto County · 21,080 people
• City population: 21,080
• Metro: Mineral Wells, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,080
• Household income: $62,190
• Rent vs Own: 35.5% rent · 64.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 745.0

Population outlook (Palo Pinto County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,500 people
• By 2030: 27,079 · -1.5%
• By 2040: 26,135 · -5.0%
• By 2050: 25,215 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 23,416 · -14.9%
• By 2100: 20,300 · -26.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 9% Black 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Palo Pinto

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+67.1) · D 16.1% · R 83.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.9pp toward R · 2008: -48.2pp · 2024: -67.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+67.1 2020: R+64.1 2016: R+64.1 2012: R+59.8 2008: R+48.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -134.09%
• Current HPI: 240.3647
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Mineral Wells, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+261.7% since first listed

31 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $104,900 NTREIS
• 2026-03-23 Listed $115,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-19 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-09-19 Listed $125,000 NTREIS
• 2025-08-19 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-07-28 Price Changed $97,000 NTREIS
• 2025-07-28 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2025-07-21 Pending — NTREIS
• 2025-07-11 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2025-06-09 Price Changed $110,000 NTREIS
• 2025-04-15 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2025-04-13 Pending — NTREIS
• 2025-04-03 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2025-03-27 Listed $126,000 NTREIS
• 2023-11-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-11-22 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2023-11-11 Pending — NTREIS
• 2023-11-03 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2023-10-27 Pending — NTREIS
• 2023-10-24 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2023-10-20 Listed $60,000 NTREIS
• 2022-09-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2011-02-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2011-02-02 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2010-12-22 Listed $49,900 NTREIS
• 2007-03-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-03-06 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2007-02-16 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2007-02-12 Listed $29,000 NTREIS
• 2005-11-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-08-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,347 · +15.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.