1124 E 3rd St · Erie, PA 16507

$90,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,755 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 21 Days on market

Built 1922 5,663 sqft lot Est $88k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.3/10.0
• Appreciation +7.1/10.0
• ARV discount +6.3/15.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Investors or buyers looking for a project. .. here is a great option with lots of potential in an up and coming Lower East Side neighborhood. Don't miss your chance to own property in what is expected to be a booming, revitalized area in the near future. Be a part of the movement! With some vision and TLC, this could be a wonderful home. An oversized two car garage is an added bonus! Cash is preferred, but an offer with rehab loan or conventional financing would be considered. No FHA or VA.

Key facts

• 5,663 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1922

Tags

• OVERSIZED TWO CAR GARAGE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One and one-half stories
• Exterior features: Composition roof; Lot zoned R-2; Lot dimensions about 48 x 121 (0.13 acres)

Interior

• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating
• Interior features: Full, unfinished basement; 7 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $369 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $89k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.2% vs local median 5.3% in Erie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#109 in PA, #840 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• Erie City SD (urban): math 12% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #510 of 539 in PA (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 39 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,288/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($33k/yr) (locally 776% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($622 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.2% appreciation + 0.1% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($89k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $16k; list at $90k implies a 449% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1922 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $88,650 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1922 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.43% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.57%
• DSCR: 1.78
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $87,750
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1129 E 4th St	0.08mi	3/1.0	1,540 (-12%)	3mo	$115,000	$75	73
654 Payne Ave	0.39mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,742 (-1%)	22mo	$120,000	$69	57
1139 E Lake Rd	0.20mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,900 (+8%)	16mo	$94,900	$50	55
1337 E 8th St	0.46mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,872 (+7%)	12mo	$85,000	$45	52
944 E 10th St	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,544 (-12%)	1mo	$45,000	$29	50
731 E 6th St	0.55mi	3/1.5	1,672 (-5%)	23mo	$32,500	$19	46
903 Wayne St	0.62mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,932 (+10%)	4mo	$128,000	$66	44
606 E 6th St	0.70mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,672 (-5%)	19mo	$27,000	$16	39
658 E 6th St	0.60mi	3/1.5	1,616 (-8%)	22mo	$122,000	$75	38
412 Reed St	0.58mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,544 (-12%)	22mo	$60,000	$39	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.17% appreciation · 0.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.45×
• Total profit: $36,426
• Equity at exit: $46,526

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.40×
• Total profit: $85,786
• Equity at exit: $76,819

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16507

• Home prices YoY: 2.6%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 39
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,288 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax from tax record: −$139 /mo · $1,667/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$270
• Net cashflow: $369

Break-even live

Break-even rent $821

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $420	-5% $395	+0% $369	+5% $344	+10% $318
Rent	-10% $267	-5% $318	+0% $369	+5% $420	+10% $471
Rate	-1.0pp $414	-0.5pp $392	base $369	+0.5pp $346	+1.0pp $322

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
622 E 4th St Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,250	$0.83	45d	1	0.65mi
223 E 9th St Erie, PA	2.0	2.0	1564	$1,300	$0.83	45d	1	1.29mi
614 E 22nd St Unit 1 Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,000	$0.77	45d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $90,000 Pending 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $90,000 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $90,000 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $90,000 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $90,000 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-05
   days on market $90,000 Active 13 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $90,000 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   remarks 495-char remark
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $90,000 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $90,000 Active 10 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $90,000 Active 9 DOM
12. 2026-05-30
    days on market $90,000 Active 8 DOM
13. 2026-05-22
    listed $90,000 Active
14. 1976-07-13
    soldstatus $16,400
15. 1976-07-07
    soldstatus $16,400
16. 1974-05-10
    soldstatus $15,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,667 · $139/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,667 · $139/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,456
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$1,667
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,236
• − Management: −$1,236
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $3,206
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$769
• After-tax cash flow: $3,660/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Erie City SD
• NCES district ID: 4209300
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $33,625
• Composite: 12.59/100
• National rank: #9617
• State rank: #510 of 539 in PA

Livability — Erie

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #840

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Erie, PA
• County: Erie County · 92,215 people
• City population: 92,215
• Metro: Erie, PA
• Population (ZIP): 8,597
• Household income: $33,361
• Rent vs Own: 66.2% rent · 33.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 776.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 272,159 people
• By 2030: 266,299 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 250,987 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 234,925 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 199,164 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 162,985 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 24% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Scotch-Irish 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Vietnamese 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.0% · R 50.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: -1.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.0 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+16.9 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.17%
• Current HPI: 163.92
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.10%
• Metro: Erie, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+480.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $90,000 GEBOR
• 1976-07-13 Sold (Public Records) $16,400 Public Records
• 1976-07-07 Sold (Public Records) $16,400 Public Records
• 1974-05-10 Sold (Public Records) $15,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,667 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.