4146 Oakmont St · Rocklin, CA 95677

$85,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · Manufactured · 76 Days on market

Built 1971 $118/sqft · 7% above area Est $80k · 7% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• ARV discount +4.4/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming 2 bed, 1 bath home in the popular Sierra Lakes All-Age Park. Features a versatile sunroom perfect for an office, playroom, or extra living space. Thoughtfully updated with accent walls, new light fixtures, and a faux French window for added character. Enjoy year-round comfort with two new mini-split systems, plus recent upgrades including a new water heater expansion tank and new washer & dryer. Outdoor features include raised garden boxes and a greenhouse ideal for gardening enthusiasts. Community pool is currently being redone, adding even more appeal. Clean, stylish, and move-in ready!

Key facts

• Community pool
• Mini-split systems
• Sunroom

Tags

• SUNROOM
• MINI-SPLIT SYSTEMS
• WATER HEATER EXPANSION TANK
• RAISED GARDEN BOXES
• GREENHOUSE
• COMMUNITY POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $683 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $80k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 22.0% vs local median 2.7% in Rocklin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#136 in CA, #4,755 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: commute D+, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Rocklin Unified (suburban): math 44% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #96 of 517 in CA (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 159 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,535 units permitted in Placer County in 2024 (689 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Placer County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.9% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($80k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,900 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.53% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 55.95%
• DSCR: 3.49
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $79,505
• List price: $85,000
• Delta: 6.91%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4166 Oakmont St #197	0.03mi	2/1.5	720 (0%)	4mo	$85,000	$118	93
4168 Lakeside Dr	0.05mi	2/2.0	804 (+12%)	23mo	$85,000	$106	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.93% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.26×
• Total profit: $29,881
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.47×
• Total profit: $82,624
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95677

• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 159
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,148 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$106 /mo · $1,275/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$451
• Net cashflow: $683

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,283

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $742	-5% $713	+0% $683	+5% $654	+10% $624
Rent	-10% $513	-5% $598	+0% $683	+5% $768	+10% $853
Rate	-1.0pp $726	-0.5pp $705	base $683	+0.5pp $661	+1.0pp $639

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5415 S Grove St Rocklin, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	765	$2,100	$2.75	2d	6	0.12mi
5800 Woodside Dr Rocklin, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	850	$2,239	$2.63	4d	4	0.51mi
5457 5th St Rocklin, CA	3.0	1.0	640	$1,845	$2.88	8d	1	0.73mi
4760 3rd St Unit B, Rocklin, CA 95677 Rocklin, CA	1.0	1.0	650	$1,750	$2.69	22d	1	0.77mi
5180 Rocklin Rd Rocklin, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	857	$2,552	$2.98	2d	9	1.42mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 76 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 75 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 74 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 73 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 71 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 70 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 67 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,000 Active 66 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $85,000 Active 65 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $85,000 Active 62 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $85,000 Active 61 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,000 Active 60 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,000 Active 59 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 58 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 78% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 32 unhealthy d/yr today · 38 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,779
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$1,275
• − Insurance: −$5,544
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,062
• − Management: −$2,062
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $7,602
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,824
• After-tax cash flow: $6,373/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rocklin Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600013
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $82,858
• Composite: 49.58/100
• National rank: #1984
• State rank: #96 of 517 in CA

Livability — Rocklin

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #136
• US rank: #4755

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D+ Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rocklin, CA
• County: Placer County · 390,510 people
• City population: 73,077
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 29,206
• Household income: $105,713
• Rent vs Own: 33.7% rent · 66.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1107.0

Population outlook (Placer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 422,709 people
• By 2030: 444,249 · +5.1%
• By 2040: 480,192 · +13.6%
• By 2050: 506,390 · +19.8%
• By 2075: 550,219 · +30.2%
• By 2100: 547,760 · +29.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 15% Asian 7% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Placer

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.5) · D 44.3% · R 52.8% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.8pp toward D · 2008: -11.3pp · 2024: -8.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.5 2020: R+6.7 2016: R+11.3 2012: R+20.1 2008: R+11.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -443.08%
• Current HPI: 278.1359
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.93%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B