33586 N Draba Ln · San Tan Valley, AZ 85144

$385,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,784 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 49 Days on market

Built 2019 7,950 sqft lot $216/sqft · 12% below area Est $437k · 12% under $62/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.9/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +5.9/30.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• 1% rule +0.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

New Construction: New construction! Over-sized lot!! Mountain Views!! Ready for end of April move in. Home includes many upgraded and Included features like Granite slab countertops in Kitchen. Stainless Steel appliances including the Fridge. 30' Espresso colored cabinets with upgraded crown molding. Also includes Whirlpool Washer & Dryer, 2' Blinds included on front windows, Front yard landscaping and more. Includes tot lot and close to many other amenities.

Key facts

• 7,950 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with quarterly fee of $186 covering grounds maintenance; Community amenities include a pool, fitness center, and biking/walking path

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered garage spaces with direct access and garage door opener; 2 additional open parking spaces
• Utilities: Private water company service; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Stucco and painted wood-frame construction
• Exterior features: Front and back gravel/stone landscaping; Desert front with front sprinklers; Block fencing; Mountain views; Tile roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Walk-in pantry; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Kitchen island
• Bedrooms: Up to 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning; Programmable thermostat
• Interior features: Granite counters; Master suite on the main level; Two master baths; No interior steps; Kitchen island; Dual-pane, ENERGY STAR qualified windows
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $385k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-746 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $253k (34.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $209k (45.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $209k (45.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 3.2% in San Tan Valley — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#282 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, employment B+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Florence Unified School District (4437) (rural): math 16% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #178 of 249 in AZ (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: San Tan Heights Elementary (math 15% / reading 20%, grade F, #803 of 1,109 statewide, top 73%, 668 students, 55% FRL); San Tan Foothills High School (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #267 of 381 statewide, top 72%, 824 students, 41% FRL) — zoned schools at 48% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 475 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $41k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $38k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$66k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($373k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $270k; 43% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $208,790 (45.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 46% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.54% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.30%
• DSCR: 0.63
• GRM: 15.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $436,990
• List price: $385,000
• Delta: -11.90%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
33421 N Bowles Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,871 (+5%)	1mo	$372,500	$199	81
4164 W Suncup Dr	0.41mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,819 (+2%)	1mo	$567,000	$312	72
4390 W Kirkland Ave	0.17mi	3/2.5	1,973 (+11%)	1mo	$365,000	$185	72
4017 W Brenley Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,837 (+3%)	1mo	$455,000	$248	69
4350 W Sebastian Ln	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,837 (+3%)	2mo	$424,900	$231	68
4418 W Kirkland Ave	0.18mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,571 (-12%)	1mo	$390,000	$248	66
4071 W White Canyon Rd	0.38mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,913 (+7%)	1mo	$389,000	$203	63
4447 W Mountain Laural Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,735 (-3%)	0mo	$395,000	$228	61
4366 W White Canyon Rd	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,536 (-14%)	0mo	$362,000	$236	60
4528 W Crescent Rd	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,536 (-14%)	1mo	$350,000	$228	60
33964 N Rockflower Trl	0.29mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,967 (+10%)	1mo	$430,000	$219	59
3202 W Carlos Ln	0.65mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,539 (-14%)	1mo	$260,000	$169	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.50×
• Total profit: $162,043
• Equity at exit: $346,839

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.77×
• Total profit: $514,287
• Equity at exit: $747,970

Cash invested: $107,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85144

• Home prices YoY: 7.2%
• Active inventory: 475
• Price-to-rent: 15.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,088 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,019
• Tax from tax record: −$154 /mo · $1,847/yr
• Insurance: −$160
• HOA: −$62
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$438
• Net cashflow: $-746

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,032

Max offer price $253,234

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $96,250
• Closing costs: $11,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4251 W Dayflower Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	3.0	2563	$2,490	$0.97	5d	1	0.16mi
33810 N Mercedes Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1504	$1,925	$1.28	43d	1	0.24mi
3809 W Five Mile Peak Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1343	$1,895	$1.41	5d	1	0.24mi
3854 W Carlos Ln San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1527	$1,825	$1.20	5d	1	0.28mi
4590 W Foldwing DR Queen Creek, AZ	4.0	2.0	1806	$2,449	$1.36	2d	1	0.28mi
3792 W Santa Cruz Ave San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1852	$1,795	$0.97	43d	1	0.33mi
4504 W Stonecrop Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1810	$2,075	$1.15	5d	1	0.39mi
33948 N Beeblossom Trl San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1348	$1,850	$1.37	16d	1	0.40mi
3877 W Naomi Ln San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.5	2010	$1,850	$0.92	5d	1	0.40mi
33889 N Barbara Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1868	$1,975	$1.06	5d	1	0.44mi
3849 W South Butte Rd San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1884	$1,846	$0.98	43d	1	0.46mi
3560 W Mesquite Ave San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1453	$1,750	$1.20	11d	1	0.47mi
34113 N Alison Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	3.0	2423	$2,089	$0.86	2d	1	0.48mi
3846 W Morgan Ln San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	3.0	2422	$1,949	$0.80	24d	1	0.48mi
3369 W Yellow Peak Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.5	2617	$2,795	$1.07	4d	1	0.51mi
33993 N Danja Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1998	$2,450	$1.23	43d	1	0.56mi
3569 W Morgan Ln San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1700	$1,550	$0.91	24d	1	0.56mi
33024 N Madison Way Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,700	$1.13	14d	1	0.56mi
3194 W Yellow Peak Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1925	$1,908	$0.99	43d	1	0.63mi
3162 W Sunshine Butte Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,850	$1.16	21d	1	0.67mi
3102 W Belle Ave San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1909	$1,900	$1.00	14d	1	0.72mi
3102 W Belle Ave San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1909	$1,900	$1.00	12d	1	0.72mi
3047 W Dancer Ln San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1454	$1,915	$1.32	43d	1	0.76mi
2993 W Dancer Ln San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1290	$1,700	$1.32	43d	1	0.79mi
2924 W Allens Peak Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1765	$1,880	$1.07	2d	1	0.79mi
2924 W Allens Peak Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1765	$1,955	$1.11	10d	1	0.79mi
3541 Dreamy Draw Dr Queen Creek, AZ	4.0	2.5	1918	$2,700	$1.41	24d	1	0.82mi
33897 N Wash View Rd San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1721	$1,980	$1.15	2d	1	0.82mi
33856 N Cherry Creek Rd San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1928	$1,850	$0.96	43d	1	0.83mi
3439 W Oil Well Rd San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1595	$2,500	$1.57	43d	1	0.86mi
2899 W White Canyon Rd San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1981	$1,950	$0.98	2d	1	0.89mi
34973 N Augite Way San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.5	2614	$4,350	$1.66	1d	1	0.93mi
2699 W Camp River Rd San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1766	$1,975	$1.12	43d	1	0.93mi
35032 N Barrel Rd San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.5	2213	$3,900	$1.76	1d	1	0.94mi
2828 Patagonia Ct Queen Creek, AZ	3.0	2.5	2230	$2,500	$1.12	43d	1	0.99mi
4165 W Monika Ln San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	3.0	2049	$2,450	$1.20	43d	1	1.08mi
2460 W Tanner Ranch Rd San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1520	$1,980	$1.30	1d	1	1.11mi
2683 W Kristina Ave San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,850	$1.31	43d	1	1.15mi
2574 W Sawtooth Way San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1326	$1,995	$1.50	43d	1	1.16mi
4001 W Brass Ln San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.5	2432	$2,750	$1.13	43d	1	1.17mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $62 · $744/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingpool

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $385,000 Active 49 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $385,000 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $385,000 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $385,000 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $385,000 Active 44 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $385,000 Active 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   pricedays on market $385,000 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $390,000 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $390,000 Active 38 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $390,000 Active 35 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $390,000 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $390,000 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $390,000 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $390,000 Active 31 DOM
15. 2026-05-18
    price $395,000 816-char remark
16. 2026-04-30
    listed $400,000 Active 816-char remark
17. 2026-04-23
    historical $400,000 816-char remark
18. 2020-05-20
    soldstatus $269,990 Closed 468-char remark

    Show marketing remark (468 chars)

    New Construction: New construction! Over-sized lot!! Mountain Views!! Ready for end of April move in. Home includes many upgraded and Included features like Granite slab countertops in Kitchen. Stainless Steel appliances including the Fridge. 30' Espresso colored cabinets with upgraded crown molding. Also includes Whirlpool Washer & Dryer, 2' Blinds included on front windows, Front yard landscaping and more. Includes tot lot and close to many other amenities.

19. 2020-02-17
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups 468-char remark

    Show marketing remark (468 chars)

    New Construction: New construction! Over-sized lot!! Mountain Views!! Ready for end of April move in. Home includes many upgraded and Included features like Granite slab countertops in Kitchen. Stainless Steel appliances including the Fridge. 30' Espresso colored cabinets with upgraded crown molding. Also includes Whirlpool Washer & Dryer, 2' Blinds included on front windows, Front yard landscaping and more. Includes tot lot and close to many other amenities.

20. 2020-02-05
    price $269,990 468-char remark

    Show marketing remark (468 chars)

    New Construction: New construction! Over-sized lot!! Mountain Views!! Ready for end of April move in. Home includes many upgraded and Included features like Granite slab countertops in Kitchen. Stainless Steel appliances including the Fridge. 30' Espresso colored cabinets with upgraded crown molding. Also includes Whirlpool Washer & Dryer, 2' Blinds included on front windows, Front yard landscaping and more. Includes tot lot and close to many other amenities.

21. 2020-01-22
    listed $259,990 Active 468-char remark

    Show marketing remark (468 chars)

    New Construction: New construction! Over-sized lot!! Mountain Views!! Ready for end of April move in. Home includes many upgraded and Included features like Granite slab countertops in Kitchen. Stainless Steel appliances including the Fridge. 30' Espresso colored cabinets with upgraded crown molding. Also includes Whirlpool Washer & Dryer, 2' Blinds included on front windows, Front yard landscaping and more. Includes tot lot and close to many other amenities.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,847 · $154/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,541 · $212/mo
• Expected delta: +$694/yr (+$58/mo · 37.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,055
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,566
• − Property taxes: −$1,847
• − Insurance: −$1,925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,004
• − Management: −$2,004
• − HOA: −$744
• − Depreciation: −$11,200
• Taxable loss: −$16,236
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,897
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,054/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Florence Unified School District (4437)
• NCES district ID: 0402920
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $54,426
• Composite: 18.31/100
• National rank: #8950
• State rank: #178 of 249 in AZ

Livability — San Tan Valley

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #282
• US rank: #24192

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime D+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Tan Valley, AZ

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Not yet ingested

• Political lean: —
• Race & ethnicity: —
• Common origin: —
• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 24.94%
• Current HPI: 372.52
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+48.1% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Price Changed $385,000 ARMLS
• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $390,000 ARMLS
• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $395,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $400,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-23 Coming Soon $400,000 ARMLS
• 2020-05-20 Sold (MLS) $269,990 ARMLS
• 2020-02-17 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2020-02-05 Price Changed $269,990 ARMLS
• 2020-01-22 Listed $259,990 ARMLS

Property tax history

+51.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,847 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.