14620 Garrett Ave #104 · Apple Valley, MN 55124

$149,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 890 sqft · Condo public records · 130 Days on market

Built 1980 $425/mo HOA · 21% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.3/30.0
• 1% rule +8.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Newly updated ground-level 2-bedroom, 2-bath condo in a fantastic Apple Valley location! Enjoy a freshly renovated interior featuring a brand-new refrigerator and range, spacious living areas, and a lovely screened porch perfect for relaxing. The primary bedroom offers a walk-in closet and a full private bathroom. The community provides great amenities, including a shared pool and laundry facilities. Move-in ready and conveniently located near shopping, dining, and parks—this is easy living at its best!

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• New range
• Updated interior

Tags

• UPDATED INTERIOR
• NEW REFRIGERATOR
• NEW RANGE
• SCREENED PORCH
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• PRIVATE BATHROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA managed by Network Management; Monthly association fee of $425; Association covers gas, heating, lawn care, grounds maintenance, professional management, sewer, shared amenities, snow removal and water

Exterior

• Parking: Guest parking and parking lot; 1 garage space
• Utilities: City water (connected); City sewer (connected); Natural gas
• Home design: Attached residential unit; One level; No internal stairs; Flat roof
• Construction: 890 sq ft above-grade finished area; 890 sq ft foundation area
• Exterior features: Screened porch; Stone and wood exterior; Medium tree coverage; Shared below-ground pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator; Kitchen/Dining room
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on the main level)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms including a private primary and a main floor full bath
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Wall-mounted cooling unit(s)
• Interior features: All living facilities on one level; Main floor primary bedroom; Primary bedroom walk-in closet; Porch
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in a common area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $245 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $149k).
• Recommended offer: $131k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 4.0% in Apple Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#10 in MN, #379 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F.
• Rosemount-Apple Valley-Eagan (suburban): math 50% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #58 of 301 in MN (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 277 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,134 units permitted in Dakota County in 2024 (898 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dakota County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 130 days — a 12% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $107k; 39% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 21% of rent.

Recommended offer $131,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 130 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.05%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.27% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-7,729
• Equity at exit: $22,216

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.40×
• Total profit: $16,696
• Equity at exit: $12,883

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55124

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 277
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,064 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax from tax record: −$117 /mo · $1,406/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$425
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$433
• Net cashflow: $245

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,754

Max offer price $149,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $329	-5% $287	+0% $245	+5% $203	+10% $161
Rent	-10% $82	-5% $163	+0% $245	+5% $327	+10% $408
Rate	-1.0pp $320	-0.5pp $283	base $245	+0.5pp $206	+1.0pp $167

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6859 152nd St W Apple Valley, MN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1062	$2,022	$1.90	0d	13	0.64mi
15283 Galante Ln Saint Paul, MN	2.0	1.0–2.0	880	$2,250	$2.56	0d	17	0.65mi
15380 Garrett Ave Saint Paul, MN	1.0–2.0	1.0–3.0	1676	$3,296	$1.97	3d	10	0.67mi
14191 Pennock Ave Saint Paul, MN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	865	$1,725	$1.99	25d	5	0.74mi
7802 Whitney Dr Apple Valley, MN	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	25d	2	0.76mi
6780 Fortino St Saint Paul, MN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1117	$4,085	$3.66	0d	12	0.80mi
14650 Foliage Ave Saint Paul, MN	3.0	1.0–2.0	978	$2,263	$2.31	0d	24	0.81mi
15600 Galaxie Ave Saint Paul, MN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1244	$1,642	$1.32	0d	7	0.90mi
7624 157th St W Apple Valley, MN	1.0	1.0	720	$1,395	$1.94	25d	1	1.01mi
15533 Flight Way Apple Valley, MN	2.0	1.5	976	$1,995	$2.04	25d	1	1.02mi
15531 Flyboat Ln Apple Valley, MN	2.0	1.5	1010	$1,865	$1.85	25d	1	1.08mi
15539 Float Ln Apple Valley, MN	2.0	1.5	927	$1,795	$1.94	25d	1	1.12mi
7472 157th St W Apple Valley, MN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1031	$1,468	$1.42	0d	2	1.12mi
15734 Foliage Ave Saint Paul, MN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1130	$1,810	$1.60	0d	15	1.19mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $425 · $5,100/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-25
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-28
   historical Contingent - Subject to Statutory Rescission
3. 2026-04-02
   price $149,000
4. 2026-01-15
   listed $150,000 Active
5. 2025-11-24
   soldstatus $107,394
6. 2025-11-06
   listed $150,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,406 · $117/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,537 · $128/mo
• Expected delta: +$131/yr (+$11/mo · 9.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,769
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$1,406
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,981
• − Management: −$1,981
• − HOA: −$5,100
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable income: $874
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$210
• After-tax cash flow: $2,730/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rosemount-Apple Valley-Eagan
• NCES district ID: 2732390
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $85,559
• Composite: 49.48/100
• National rank: #2000
• State rank: #58 of 301 in MN

Livability — Apple Valley

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #10
• US rank: #379

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living C Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Apple Valley, MN
• County: Dakota County · 417,704 people
• City population: 55,658
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 55,658
• Household income: $97,727
• Rent vs Own: 26.5% rent · 73.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1406.0

Population outlook (Dakota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 450,671 people
• By 2030: 465,068 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 486,770 · +8.0%
• By 2050: 498,743 · +10.7%
• By 2075: 533,865 · +18.5%
• By 2100: 550,133 · +22.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 10% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 10% Romanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dakota

• 2024 margin: D (+12.9) · D 55.4% · R 42.5% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.5pp · 2024: 12.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+4.7 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+5.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -275.56%
• Current HPI: 227.4734
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.27%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

-0.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-25 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-28 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $149,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-15 Listed $150,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-24 Sold (Public Records) $107,394 Public Records
• 2025-11-06 Listed $150,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+7.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,406 · -6.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.