221 Rafferty Rd · Gang Mills, NY 14870

$189,900

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,482 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1961 1.20 ac lot Est $209k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.5/30.0
• ARV discount +11.6/15.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover the perfect blend of rural serenity and modern convenience in this beautifully maintained 4 bedroom ranch, situated on just over a very private acre. Offering a delightful "touch of country" while remaining only minutes from the amenities of town, this home provides a rare sense of seclusion. You can rest easy knowing the major components are already taken care of, with a new roof, furnace, and hot water heater all installed just four years ago. Inside, you'll find stunning hardwood floors throughout, leading to a sprawling primary bedroom and three additional sizeable bedrooms, ensuring plenty of space for everyone. The potential of this home extends to the full basement

Key facts

• New furnace
• Private acre
• New hot water heater

Tags

• PRIVATE ACRE
• NEW ROOF
• NEW FURNACE
• NEW HOT WATER HEATER
• FULL BASEMENT
• FULL EGRESS WINDOWS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; One garage space
• Utilities: Electricity connected with circuit breakers; Well water; Septic sewer
• Home design: Single-story residence; Resale property; Aluminum siding
• Construction: Built (existing); Block foundation; Aluminum siding
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Gravel driveway; Leased propane tank; Irregular, rural lot (approx. 1.2 acres, 300 x 240)

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing range; Oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Four main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Hardwood; Vinyl; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom; One main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Forced air; Stove heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Bedroom on main level; Full, walk-out basement with egress windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer in basement; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $182 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#532 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: cost of living C-, schools D, health & safety D.
• Corning City School District (town): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #406 of 590 in NY (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.4%/yr); 44 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 196 units permitted in Steuben County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Steuben County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $189,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.12%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $208,962
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
221 Rafferty Rd	0.00mi	4/1.5	1,482 (0%)	1mo	$209,000	$141	99

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-25,100
• Equity at exit: $28,315

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-29,859
• Equity at exit: $16,419

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14870

• Home prices YoY: -28.8%
• Rents YoY: -1.4%
• Active inventory: 44
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,070 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$378 /mo · $4,532/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$435
• Net cashflow: $182

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,839

Max offer price $189,900

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $290	-5% $236	+0% $182	+5% $129	+10% $75
Rent	-10% $19	-5% $101	+0% $182	+5% $264	+10% $346
Rate	-1.0pp $278	-0.5pp $231	base $182	+0.5pp $133	+1.0pp $83

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-14
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-08
   listed $189,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,532 · $378/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,532 · $378/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,837
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$4,532
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,987
• − Management: −$1,987
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable loss: −$780
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$187
• After-tax cash flow: $2,377/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Corning City School District
• NCES district ID: 3608400
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $53,042
• Composite: 41.8/100
• National rank: #3392
• State rank: #406 of 590 in NY

Livability — Gang Mills

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #532
• US rank: #9596

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Steuben County · 41,193 people
• City population: 10,086
• Metro: Corning, NY
• Population (ZIP): 9,795
• Household income: $84,476
• Rent vs Own: 29.5% rent · 70.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 289.0

Population outlook (Steuben County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 93,062 people
• By 2030: 89,793 · -3.5%
• By 2040: 82,353 · -11.5%
• By 2050: 74,286 · -20.2%
• By 2075: 55,589 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 37,587 · -59.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Asian 8% Two or more races 5% Black 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · China, South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Chinese 4% Other Indo-European 2% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Steuben

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.8) · D 34.1% · R 65.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.0pp toward R · 2008: -16.8pp · 2024: -31.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.8 2020: R+29.6 2016: R+36.2 2012: R+16.4 2008: R+16.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.45%
• Current HPI: 174.2287
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.35%
• Metro: Corning, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-04-08 Listed $189,900 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,532 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.