LEWIS Plan · Varnamtown, NC 28422

$233,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,256 sqft · SingleFamily · 617 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Smart home package
• Walk-in shower

Tags

• COVERED PORCH
• WALK-IN SHOWER
• SMART HOME PACKAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $233,990

Exterior

• Home design: LEWIS plan (new construction plan)
• Construction: Living area approximately 1,256; Listed as new construction (Plan)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Virtual tour available

🏗️ New construction. The $233,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $234,872.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $234k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-23 ($-274/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $232k (1.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $211k (9.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $206k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.8% in Varnamtown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#521 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, employment B; Watch: crime D, health & safety D, schools F.
• Brunswick County Schools (rural): math 45% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #82 of 178 in NC (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 569 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,112 units permitted in Brunswick County in 2024 (990 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brunswick County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 617 days — a 12% lower offer ($206k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $205,911 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 617 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.80%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $234,872
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4024 Cypress Forest Way	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,256 (0%)	3mo	$235,100	$187	88
4012 Cypress Forest Way SE Lot 25	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,256 (0%)	11mo	$225,000	$179	82
2218 Brookstone Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,300 (+4%)	8mo	$242,000	$186	80
4020 Cypress Forest Way SE Lot 23	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,256 (0%)	13mo	$229,999	$183	80
4024 Cypress Forest Way SE Lot 22	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,256 (0%)	15mo	$230,000	$183	78
4009 Cypress Forest Way SE Lot 12	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,256 (0%)	13mo	$235,490	$187	78
4032 Cypress Forest Way SE Lot 20	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,256 (0%)	15mo	$235,990	$188	77
4052 Cypress Forest Way SE Lot 15	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,256 (0%)	15mo	$224,999	$179	76
2165 Grande Palms Trl Lot 83	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,182 (-6%)	15mo	$229,999	$195	76
4048 Cypress Forest Way SE Lot 16	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,256 (0%)	15mo	$229,999	$183	76
2129 Grande Palms Trl Lot 92	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,182 (-6%)	11mo	$230,000	$195	71
4028 Cypress Forest Way SE Lot 21	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,182 (-6%)	15mo	$229,999	$195	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-39,439
• Equity at exit: $35,020

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-35,918
• Equity at exit: $20,307

Cash invested: $65,764 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28422

• Home prices YoY: -23.8%
• Active inventory: 569
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,110 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$294 /mo · $3,523/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$443
• Net cashflow: $-23

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,139

Max offer price $231,572

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $140	-5% $58	+0% $-23	+5% $-104	+10% $-185
Rent	-10% $-189	-5% $-106	+0% $-23	+5% $61	+10% $144
Rate	-1.0pp $95	-0.5pp $37	base $-23	+0.5pp $-84	+1.0pp $-146

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,718
• Closing costs: $7,046
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2157 Grande Palms Trl SE Bolivia, NC	3.0	2.0	1256	$1,850	$1.47	24d	1	0.14mi
4024 Cypress Forest Way Bolivia, NC	3.0	2.0	1256	$1,700	$1.35	24d	1	0.19mi
2537 Provence Dr SE Bolivia, NC	4.0	2.0	1607	$1,895	$1.18	24d	1	0.27mi
2617 Provence Dr SE Bolivia, NC	4.0	2.0	1776	$1,920	$1.08	24d	1	0.43mi
756 Pantego Blvd SE Bolivia, NC	3.0	2.0	1506	$2,100	$1.39	24d	1	0.47mi
2502 Kenton Ct SE Bolivia, NC	4.0	2.0	1601	$1,895	$1.18	24d	1	0.50mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $233,990 Active 617 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $233,990 Active 616 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $233,990 Active 615 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $233,990 Active 614 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $233,990 Active 612 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $233,990 Active 611 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $233,990 Active 609 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $233,990 Active 608 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $233,990 Active 607 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $233,990 Active 606 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $233,990 Active 603 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $233,990 Active 601 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $233,990 Active 600 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $233,990 Active 599 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $233,990 Active 598 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,318
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,156
• − Property taxes: −$3,523
• − Insurance: −$1,972
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,025
• − Management: −$2,025
• − Depreciation: −$6,833
• Taxable loss: −$4,217
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,012
• After-tax cash flow: $738/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brunswick County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700420
• Math proficiency: 45% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,494
• Composite: 39.23/100
• National rank: #4011
• State rank: #82 of 178 in NC

Livability — Varnamtown

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #521
• US rank: #19194

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment B Housing A Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Brunswick County · 131,536 people
• City population: 11,219
• Metro: Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC
• Population (ZIP): 10,059
• Household income: $69,412
• Rent vs Own: 13.7% rent · 86.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 243.0

Population outlook (Brunswick County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 152,111 people
• By 2030: 165,705 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 188,494 · +23.9%
• By 2050: 206,228 · +35.6%
• By 2075: 237,876 · +56.4%
• By 2100: 251,451 · +65.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Black 9% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 3% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Brunswick

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.9) · D 37.2% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.9pp toward R · 2008: -17.9pp · 2024: -24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.9 2020: R+25.0 2016: R+28.7 2012: R+22.2 2008: R+17.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.19%
• Current HPI: 141.1956
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B