3919 Avondale Dr · Bismarck, ND 58503

$187,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,176 sqft · Manufactured · 81 Days on market

Built 2003 Est $144k · 30% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.6/30.0
• DSCR +9.1/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This home offers a open floor plan and features 3 large bedrooms and 2 Full Bathrooms, The large master Bath has a large tub and a separate shower, with double sinks. Their are 2 Master closets. The foyer leads into the living room which has large windows and allows tons of natural lighting. The Kitchen has a sit up center Island, updated back splash with stainless steel appliances. The family room has a gas fireplace. the patio doors lead out to a deck with a gazebo with a fully fenced backyard for privacy. There is a seperate laundry room with extra storage. The home is updated with modern paint colors and newer flooring. The large 2 car garage has some shelving, and is heated. Call today, this home won't last long.

Key facts

• Large center island
• Move in ready
• Modern kitchen

Tags

• MOVE IN READY
• MASSIVE DOUBLE WIDE
• OPEN INVITING FLOOR PLAN
• MODERN KITCHEN
• LARGE CENTER ISLAND
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $187k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $498 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $187k).
• Recommended offer: $176k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 3.1% in Bismarck — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#5 in ND, #2,213 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime C-, amenities D+, commute F.
• Bismarck 1 (urban): math 41% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #25 of 53 in ND (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.8%/yr); 481 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 259 units permitted in Burleigh County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Burleigh County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $175,780 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.40%
• DSCR: 1.51
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $143,616
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1701 Chandler Ln	0.19mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,128 (-2%)	12mo	$140,000	$66	72

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.24×
• Total profit: $12,309
• Equity at exit: $27,882

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.93×
• Total profit: $101,250
• Equity at exit: $16,168

Cash invested: $52,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Dakota: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 58503

• Home prices YoY: -25.6%
• Rents YoY: 11.8%
• Active inventory: 481
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,077 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$981
• Tax from tax record: −$85 /mo · $1,019/yr
• Insurance: −$78
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$436
• Net cashflow: $498

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,447

Max offer price $187,000

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,750
• Closing costs: $5,610
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1600 Mapleton Ave Unit 104 Bismarck, ND	3.0	2.0	1456	$1,600	$1.10	21d	1	0.63mi
3009 43rd Ave NE Bismarck, ND	3.0	1.0–2.0	1051	$2,024	$1.93	21d	22	0.90mi
4126A Normandy St Bismarck, ND	2.0	1.5	1468	$1,750	$1.19	21d	1	1.09mi
4129 Oklahoma Ln Bismarck, ND	2.0	2.5–3.0	2285	$3,419	$1.50	21d	6	1.28mi
1834 E Capitol Ave Bismarck, ND	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1116	$1,770	$1.59	21d	13	1.28mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-03
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-01-29
   listed $187,000 Active
4. 2021-10-29
   soldstatus 727-char remark

   Show marketing remark (727 chars)

   This home offers a open floor plan and features 3 large bedrooms and 2 Full Bathrooms, The large master Bath has a large tub and a separate shower, with double sinks. Their are 2 Master closets. The foyer leads into the living room which has large windows and allows tons of natural lighting. The Kitchen has a sit up center Island, updated back splash with stainless steel appliances. The family room has a gas fireplace. the patio doors lead out to a deck with a gazebo with a fully fenced backyard for privacy. There is a seperate laundry room with extra storage. The home is updated with modern paint colors and newer flooring. The large 2 car garage has some shelving, and is heated. Call today, this home won't last long.

5. 2021-09-04
   listed $143,000 727-char remark

   Show marketing remark (727 chars)

   This home offers a open floor plan and features 3 large bedrooms and 2 Full Bathrooms, The large master Bath has a large tub and a separate shower, with double sinks. Their are 2 Master closets. The foyer leads into the living room which has large windows and allows tons of natural lighting. The Kitchen has a sit up center Island, updated back splash with stainless steel appliances. The family room has a gas fireplace. the patio doors lead out to a deck with a gazebo with a fully fenced backyard for privacy. There is a seperate laundry room with extra storage. The home is updated with modern paint colors and newer flooring. The large 2 car garage has some shelving, and is heated. Call today, this home won't last long.

6. 2020-04-30
   soldstatus 828-char remark

   Show marketing remark (828 chars)

   Impressive and Move-in Ready Home offering an open floor plan and featuring 3 bedrooms 2 bathrooms and an oversized heated double garage. The nice sized foyer leads into the living room w/ large windows that offers tons of great natural lighting. Just adjacent to the living room is the dining room and kitchen w/ sit up center island, upgraded appliances, tiled backsplash, newer countertops and beautiful cabinets. The inviting family rooms offers a gas fireplace and is large enough for a sectional. Walk out to the exterior patio where is designed for entertaining w/ gazebo, pond and privacy. The master bedroom suite is generously sized w/ garden tub, 2 closets and dual vanities. There is a separate laundry room w/ shelving and nice storage. Modern paint colors and newer flooring. Fully fenced yard! See this one today!

7. 2019-11-02
   listed $159,900 828-char remark

   Show marketing remark (828 chars)

   Impressive and Move-in Ready Home offering an open floor plan and featuring 3 bedrooms 2 bathrooms and an oversized heated double garage. The nice sized foyer leads into the living room w/ large windows that offers tons of great natural lighting. Just adjacent to the living room is the dining room and kitchen w/ sit up center island, upgraded appliances, tiled backsplash, newer countertops and beautiful cabinets. The inviting family rooms offers a gas fireplace and is large enough for a sectional. Walk out to the exterior patio where is designed for entertaining w/ gazebo, pond and privacy. The master bedroom suite is generously sized w/ garden tub, 2 closets and dual vanities. There is a separate laundry room w/ shelving and nice storage. Modern paint colors and newer flooring. Fully fenced yard! See this one today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast ND · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,019 · $85/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,833 · $153/mo
• Expected delta: +$814/yr (+$68/mo · 79.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,928
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,475
• − Property taxes: −$1,019
• − Insurance: −$935
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,994
• − Management: −$1,994
• − Depreciation: −$5,440
• Taxable income: $3,071
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$737
• After-tax cash flow: $5,234/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bismarck 1
• NCES district ID: 3800014
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $60,649
• Composite: 36.76/100
• National rank: #4577
• State rank: #25 of 53 in ND

Livability — Bismarck

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #5
• US rank: #2213

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bismarck, ND
• County: Burleigh County · 97,300 people
• City population: 97,300
• Metro: Bismarck, ND
• Population (ZIP): 37,683
• Household income: $102,333
• Rent vs Own: 25.7% rent · 74.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 814.0

Population outlook (Burleigh County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 119,359 people
• By 2030: 133,047 · +11.5%
• By 2040: 161,545 · +35.3%
• By 2050: 191,960 · +60.8%
• By 2075: 274,569 · +130.0%
• By 2100: 350,910 · +194.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 17% Scotch-Irish 4% Scottish 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Burleigh

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.2) · D 27.5% · R 70.7% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.7pp toward R · 2008: -23.6pp · 2024: -43.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.2 2020: R+40.2 2016: R+46.1 2012: R+32.1 2008: R+23.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.96%
• Current HPI: 223.9683
• Rent YoY: ▲ 11.79%
• Metro: Bismarck, ND
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.09%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ND)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Utilities / Construction	1	$6B

Price history

+16.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Pending — GNMLS
• 2026-03-03 Contingent — GNMLS
• 2026-01-29 Listed $187,000 GNMLS
• 2021-10-29 Sold (MLS) — GNMLS
• 2021-09-04 Listed $143,000 GNMLS
• 2020-04-30 Sold (MLS) — GNMLS
• 2019-11-02 Listed $159,900 GNMLS