281 Mill Pond Ln SE · Ludowici, GA 31316

$239,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,620 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 79 Days on market

Built 2009 0.49 ac lot $148/sqft · 6% below area Est $256k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.1/30.0
• ARV discount +10.3/15.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath solid brick home located Mill Pond Estate subdivision in Long County. Situated on a spacious 0.59-acre lot, this home features a large living room that flows into the kitchen and dining area. Enjoy the privacy-fenced backyard, perfect for outdoor living, plus the convenience of a 2-car garage. Move-in ready and located just a short drive from Fort Stewart. This property may qualify for Seller Financing (Vendee). If property was built prior to 1978, lead based paint potentially exists. Property is being "SOLD AS IS".

Key facts

• Spacious lot
• Solid brick home
• 0.49 acre lot

Tags

• SOLID BRICK HOME
• SPACIOUS LOT
• PRIVACY-FENCED BACKYARD
• SHORT DRIVE FROM FORT STEWART

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $256 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $240k).
• Recommended offer: $226k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 5.4% in Ludowici — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#74 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: schools D, employment D, amenities F.
• Long County (rural): math 26% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #115 of 174 in GA (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 409 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 298 units permitted in Long County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.2% local appreciation)).
• Long County population projected at +72% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (1.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $67k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $225,506 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.58%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $255,598
• List price: $239,900
• Delta: -6.14%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
70 Millpond Plantation Ln SE	0.10mi	4/2.0	1,702 (+5%)	2mo	$354,900	$209	85
143 Millpond Plantation Ln SE	0.11mi	4/2.0	1,807 (+12%)	2mo	$335,000	$185	74
152 Mill Pond Ln SE	0.07mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,507 (-7%)	14mo	$254,900	$169	68
238 Mill Pond Ln SE	0.07mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,689 (+4%)	21mo	$255,000	$151	67
355 Mill Pond Ln SE	0.08mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,810 (+12%)	8mo	$295,000	$163	63
170 Mill Pond Ln SE	0.06mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,508 (-7%)	23mo	$250,000	$166	61
308 Mill Pond Ln SE	0.04mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,410 (-13%)	19mo	$255,000	$181	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.16% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.34×
• Total profit: $22,717
• Equity at exit: $83,883

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.31×
• Total profit: $88,323
• Equity at exit: $113,024

Cash invested: $67,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31316

• Home prices YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 409
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,426 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,258
• Tax from tax record: −$302 /mo · $3,628/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$510
• Net cashflow: $256

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,102

Max offer price $239,900

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,975
• Closing costs: $7,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
171 Baker Field Ln SE Ludowici, GA	4.0	2.0	1807	$2,350	$1.30	44d	1	0.88mi
147 Rimes Ave SE Ludowici, GA	4.0	2.0	1782	$2,100	$1.18	44d	1	1.21mi
149 W Franklin St Ludowici, GA	3.0	2.5	1704	$2,250	$1.32	44d	1	1.37mi
15 Clark St Ludowici, GA	3.0	2.0	1497	$1,995	$1.33	44d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-05
   statusdays on market $239,900 Under Contract 79 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $239,900 Active 78 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $239,900 Active 77 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $239,900 Active 76 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $239,900 Active 75 DOM
6. 2026-05-30
   days on market $239,900 Active 74 DOM
7. 2026-04-29
   price $239,900 559-char remark

   Show marketing remark (559 chars)

   Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath solid brick home located Mill Pond Estate subdivision in Long County. Situated on a spacious 0.59-acre lot, this home features a large living room that flows into the kitchen and dining area. Enjoy the privacy-fenced backyard, perfect for outdoor living, plus the convenience of a 2-car garage. Move-in ready and located just a short drive from Fort Stewart. This property may qualify for Seller Financing (Vendee). If property was built prior to 1978, lead based paint potentially exists. Property is being "SOLD AS IS".

8. 2026-04-28
   price $239,900 558-char remark

   Show marketing remark (558 chars)

   Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath solid brick home located Mill Pond Estate subdivision in Long County. Situated on a spacious 0.59-acre lot, this home features a large living room that flows into the kitchen and dining area. Enjoy the privacy-fenced backyard, perfect for outdoor living, plus the convenience of a 2-car garage. Move-in ready and located just a short drive from Fort Stewart. This property may qualify for Seller Financing (Vendee). If property was built prior to 1978, lead based paint potentially exists. Property is being "SOLD AS IS".

9. 2026-03-26
   historical
10. 2026-03-17
    listed $250,500 Active 558-char remark

    Show marketing remark (558 chars)

    Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath solid brick home located Mill Pond Estate subdivision in Long County. Situated on a spacious 0.59-acre lot, this home features a large living room that flows into the kitchen and dining area. Enjoy the privacy-fenced backyard, perfect for outdoor living, plus the convenience of a 2-car garage. Move-in ready and located just a short drive from Fort Stewart. This property may qualify for Seller Financing (Vendee). If property was built prior to 1978, lead based paint potentially exists. Property is being "SOLD AS IS".

11. 2026-03-16
    listed $250,500 New 559-char remark

    Show marketing remark (559 chars)

    Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath solid brick home located Mill Pond Estate subdivision in Long County. Situated on a spacious 0.59-acre lot, this home features a large living room that flows into the kitchen and dining area. Enjoy the privacy-fenced backyard, perfect for outdoor living, plus the convenience of a 2-car garage. Move-in ready and located just a short drive from Fort Stewart. This property may qualify for Seller Financing (Vendee). If property was built prior to 1978, lead based paint potentially exists. Property is being "SOLD AS IS".

12. 2026-03-16
    listed $250,500 New

    Show marketing remark (559 chars)

    Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath solid brick home located Mill Pond Estate subdivision in Long County. Situated on a spacious 0.59-acre lot, this home features a large living room that flows into the kitchen and dining area. Enjoy the privacy-fenced backyard, perfect for outdoor living, plus the convenience of a 2-car garage. Move-in ready and located just a short drive from Fort Stewart. This property may qualify for Seller Financing (Vendee). If property was built prior to 1978, lead based paint potentially exists. Property is being "SOLD AS IS".

13. 2026-01-20
    soldstatus $214,328
14. 2022-09-15
    soldstatus $265,000
15. 2022-09-13
    listed $265,000
16. 2022-08-05
    soldstatus $255,000
17. 2022-07-26
    soldstatus $255,000
18. 2022-07-25
    soldstatus $250,000
19. 2022-07-01
    listed $255,000
20. 2022-05-24
    listed $260,000
21. 2021-11-04
    soldstatus $135,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,628 · $302/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,628 · $302/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,115
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,438
• − Property taxes: −$3,628
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,329
• − Management: −$2,329
• − Depreciation: −$6,979
• Taxable loss: −$788
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$189
• After-tax cash flow: $3,265/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Long County
• NCES district ID: 1303360
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $45,958
• Composite: 22.51/100
• National rank: #8090
• State rank: #115 of 174 in GA

Livability — Ludowici

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #74
• US rank: #6449

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Long County · 13,812 people
• City population: 13,812
• Metro: Hinesville, GA
• Population (ZIP): 13,812
• Household income: $74,766
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 109.0

Population outlook (Long County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,669 people
• By 2030: 28,223 · +14.4%
• By 2040: 35,430 · +43.6%
• By 2050: 42,403 · +71.9%
• By 2075: 56,996 · +131.0%
• By 2100: 64,185 · +160.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Black 23% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Asian/Pacific 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Long

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 35.1% · R 64.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.4pp toward R · 2008: -24.1pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+26.4 2016: R+30.8 2012: R+22.9 2008: R+24.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.16%
• Current HPI: 195.2978
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Hinesville, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+77.7% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $239,900 GAMLS
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $239,900 HABR
• 2026-03-26 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2026-03-17 Listed $250,500 HABR
• 2026-03-16 Listed $250,500 GAMLS
• 2026-03-16 Listed $250,500 GAMLS
• 2026-01-20 Sold (Public Records) $214,328 Public Records
• 2022-09-15 Sold (MLS) $265,000 Hive MLS
• 2022-09-13 Listed $265,000 Hive MLS
• 2022-08-05 Sold (MLS) $255,000 HABR
• 2022-07-26 Sold (Public Records) $255,000 Public Records
• 2022-07-25 Sold (MLS) $250,000 HABR
• 2022-07-01 Listed $255,000 HABR
• 2022-05-24 Listed $260,000 HABR
• 2021-11-04 Sold (Public Records) $135,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,628 · +32.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.