4862 Spruce Crk · Alexandria, PA 16683

$159,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 993 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 173 Days on market

Built 1906 6,098 sqft lot $160/sqft · 26% below area Est $259k · 39% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• Appreciation +7.0/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks

* * * * * * * * * * * * MASSIVE $34K PRICE REDUCTION * * * * * * * * * * Motivated Seller — Open to All Offers! Whether you are looking for the ultimate fly-fishing lodge, a Penn State game-day hub, or a high-equity renovation project, 4862 Spruce Creek Rd is your "blank canvas" with the heavy lifting already done. The Highlights: Mechanical Peace of Mind: Major updates include a newer roof (5–7 years), plus a newer furnace, water heater, and well pump. The Location: Just minutes from the legendary fly-fishing waters of Spruce Creek, 20 minutes to Penn State/Beaver Stadium, and 30 minutes to Lake Raystown. Investor Bonus: 4-bedroom layout with an

Key facts

• 6,098 sq ft lot
• Built 1906
• Listed 172 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-163 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $130k (18.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $107k (32.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $107k (32.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#1,316 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Juniata Valley SD (rural): math 25% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #393 of 539 in PA (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 3 active listings in the ZIP; 70 units permitted in Huntingdon County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (4.0% local appreciation)).
• Huntingdon County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 173 days — a 12% lower offer ($140k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $34k; list at $159k implies a 368% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1906 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $107,096 (32.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 173 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1906 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.39%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $259,083
• List price: $159,000
• Delta: -38.63%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4282 Hillside Dr	0.40mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,116 (+12%)	23mo	$249,800	$224	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.98% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.38×
• Total profit: $17,131
• Equity at exit: $80,426

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.47×
• Total profit: $65,553
• Equity at exit: $131,392

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16683

• Home prices YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 3
• Price-to-rent: 12.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,071 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax from tax record: −$109 /mo · $1,308/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$225
• Net cashflow: $-163

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,277

Max offer price $130,209

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $159,000 Active 173 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,000 Active 172 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,000 Active 171 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,000 Active 170 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,000 Active 169 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $159,000 Active 167 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,000 Active 166 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $159,000 Active 164 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,000 Active 163 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $159,000 Active 162 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $159,000 Active 161 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,000 Active 157 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,000 Active 156 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,000 Active 155 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,000 Active 154 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $159,000 Active 153 DOM
17. 2026-04-24
    price $159,000
18. 2026-04-19
    price $165,000
19. 2026-03-16
    price $169,000
20. 2026-03-10
    price $173,000
21. 2026-02-10
    price $178,000
22. 2026-01-25
    price $183,000
23. 2025-12-29
    listed $193,000 Active
24. 2025-12-28
    historical $193,000
25. 1982-12-22
    soldstatus $34,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,308 · $109/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,910 · $159/mo
• Expected delta: +$602/yr (+$50/mo · 46.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥94°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,852
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$1,308
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,028
• − Management: −$1,028
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable loss: −$4,839
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,161
• After-tax cash flow: $-794/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Juniata Valley SD
• NCES district ID: 4212630
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $49,467
• Composite: 31.45/100
• National rank: #5981
• State rank: #393 of 539 in PA

Livability — Alexandria

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #1316
• US rank: #16251

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 346

Population outlook (Huntingdon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 44,212 people
• By 2030: 43,057 · -2.6%
• By 2040: 40,537 · -8.3%
• By 2050: 37,844 · -14.4%
• By 2075: 31,411 · -29.0%
• By 2100: 23,907 · -45.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (99%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 99%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Italian 3% Polish 2%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Huntingdon

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.9) · D 23.2% · R 76.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.4pp toward R · 2008: -27.5pp · 2024: -52.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.9 2020: R+51.0 2016: R+50.7 2012: R+37.4 2008: R+27.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.98%
• Current HPI: 104.0309
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+367.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $159,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-19 Price Changed $165,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $169,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $173,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $178,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-25 Price Changed $183,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-29 Listed $193,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-28 Coming Soon $193,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1982-12-22 Sold (Public Records) $34,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,308 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.