1004 Avon Ave · Llano, TX 78643

$95,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,447 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 147 Days on market

Built 1946 7,000 sqft lot $66/sqft · 64% below area ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located right in the heart of Llano, TX, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home sits on a generous corner lot with mature trees, offering shade and space in a highly convenient location just off Highway 29. While the home could use some TLC, it presents a fantastic opportunity for investors, flippers, or anyone looking to create value in a sought-after area. Short-term rentals are allowed, making it an ideal setup for Airbnb or weekend getaways. With its close proximity to downtown Llano's shops, restaurants, and events, this property is perfectly positioned to take advantage of the town's charm and tourism. Don't miss your chance to turn this diamond in the rough into a true Llano gem!

Key facts

• Corner lot
• Mature trees
• 7,000 sq ft lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• MATURE TREES
• SHORT TERM RENTALS ALLOWED
• CLOSE PROXIMITY TO DOWNTOWN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $930 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#407 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Llano ISD (town): math 40% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #359 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 241 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 121 units permitted in Llano County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Llano County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 147 days — a 12% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 41% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 147 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 41.96%
• DSCR: 2.87
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $266,085
• List price: $95,000
• Delta: -64.30%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 38.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.65×
• Total profit: $43,872
• Equity at exit: $14,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 45.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.31×
• Total profit: $114,589
• Equity at exit: $8,214

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78643

• Home prices YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 241
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$112 /mo · $1,345/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $930

Break-even live

Break-even rent $823

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 48%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $984	-5% $957	+0% $930	+5% $903	+10% $876
Rent	-10% $772	-5% $851	+0% $930	+5% $1,009	+10% $1,088
Rate	-1.0pp $978	-0.5pp $954	base $930	+0.5pp $906	+1.0pp $880

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1001 W Haynie St Llano, TX	3.0	2.0	1422	$2,000	$1.41	45d	1	0.67mi
102 E Wallace St Llano, TX	3.0	2.0	1520	$2,000	$1.32	45d	1	1.09mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,000 Active 147 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,000 Active 146 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,000 Active 145 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,000 Active 144 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $95,000 Active 142 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $95,000 Active 141 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $95,000 Active 139 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $95,000 Active 138 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $95,000 Active 137 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $95,000 Active 136 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $95,000 Active 133 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $95,000 Active 132 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $95,000 Active 131 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $95,000 Active 130 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,000 Active 129 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,000 Active 128 DOM
17. 2026-01-22
    listed $95,000 Active 684-char remark

    Show marketing remark (684 chars)

    Located right in the heart of Llano, TX, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home sits on a generous corner lot with mature trees, offering shade and space in a highly convenient location just off Highway 29. While the home could use some TLC, it presents a fantastic opportunity for investors, flippers, or anyone looking to create value in a sought-after area. Short-term rentals are allowed, making it an ideal setup for Airbnb or weekend getaways. With its close proximity to downtown Llano's shops, restaurants, and events, this property is perfectly positioned to take advantage of the town's charm and tourism. Don't miss your chance to turn this diamond in the rough into a true Llano gem!

18. 2026-01-22
    listed $95,000 Active 684-char remark

    Show marketing remark (684 chars)

    Located right in the heart of Llano, TX, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home sits on a generous corner lot with mature trees, offering shade and space in a highly convenient location just off Highway 29. While the home could use some TLC, it presents a fantastic opportunity for investors, flippers, or anyone looking to create value in a sought-after area. Short-term rentals are allowed, making it an ideal setup for Airbnb or weekend getaways. With its close proximity to downtown Llano's shops, restaurants, and events, this property is perfectly positioned to take advantage of the town's charm and tourism. Don't miss your chance to turn this diamond in the rough into a true Llano gem!

19. 2025-10-10
    price $115,000
20. 2025-10-10
    price
21. 2025-06-24
    listed Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,345 · $112/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,738 · $145/mo
• Expected delta: +$393/yr (+$33/mo · 29.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 41% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$1,345
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,920
• − Management: −$1,920
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $10,255
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,461
• After-tax cash flow: $8,700/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Llano ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827810
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $46,746
• Composite: 35.42/100
• National rank: #4940
• State rank: #359 of 826 in TX

Livability — Llano

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #407
• US rank: #8433

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Llano, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,837

Population outlook (Llano County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,847 people
• By 2030: 21,350 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 22,281 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 23,173 · +11.2%
• By 2075: 25,526 · +22.4%
• By 2100: 25,866 · +24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 4% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Llano

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.9) · D 19.2% · R 80.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.6pp toward R · 2008: -52.2pp · 2024: -60.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.9 2020: R+60.1 2016: R+62.2 2012: R+60.4 2008: R+52.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -23.16%
• Current HPI: 760.73
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-17.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-22 Listed $95,000 HLMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-01-22 Listed $95,000 Unlock MLS
• 2025-10-10 Price Changed $115,000 HLMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2025-10-10 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-06-24 Listed — Unlock MLS

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,345 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.