1512 Joy Ave · Jackson, MI 49203

$70,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,508 sqft · SingleFamily · 1 Days on market

Built 1930 7,405 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 7,405 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1930

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (1 car)
• Home design: Traditional single-family residence; Built in 1930; Approximately 2,508 living area
• Construction: Wood siding construction
• Exterior features: Public water; Lot of about 0.17 acres

Interior

• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating
• Interior features: Eight total rooms; Full basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $851 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• Cap rate 20.9% vs local median 5.4% in Jackson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#197 in MI, #4,970 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, crime F, employment F.
• Jackson Public Schools (urban): math 15% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #458 of 540 in MI (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.5%/yr); 164 active listings in the ZIP; 317 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (103 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jackson County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.5% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $70,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.47% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 52.13%
• DSCR: 3.32
• GRM: 3.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $195,624
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1512 Joy Ave	0.00mi	4/1.5	2,508 (0%)	0mo	$70,000	$28	100
301 Ellery Ave	0.54mi	4/1.5	2,548 (+2%)	12mo	$221,000	$87	62
509 N East Ave	0.69mi	4/2.0	2,448 (-2%)	11mo	$174,000	$71	53
1117 Burr St	0.64mi	4/1.5	2,152 (-14%)	8mo	$129,900	$60	40
1811 E Ganson	0.64mi	4/2.0	2,806 (+12%)	15mo	$234,900	$84	36
1308 S Elm Ave	0.55mi	4/1.5	2,211 (-12%)	24mo	$172,000	$78	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 55.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.61×
• Total profit: $51,190
• Equity at exit: $10,437

10-year hold

• IRR: 62.1%
• Equity multiple: 8.75×
• Total profit: $151,819
• Equity at exit: $6,052

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49203

• Home prices YoY: -31.7%
• Rents YoY: 7.5%
• Active inventory: 164
• Price-to-rent: 3.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,729 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$118 /mo · $1,421/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$363
• Net cashflow: $851

Break-even live

Break-even rent $652

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 46%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-26
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-26
   listed $70,000 Active
3. 2026-05-26
   listed $70,000
4. 2026-05-26
   historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,421 · $118/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,421 · $118/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,751
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$1,421
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,660
• − Management: −$1,660
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $9,702
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,329
• After-tax cash flow: $7,889/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jackson Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2619620
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $38,344
• Composite: 17.99/100
• National rank: #8986
• State rank: #458 of 540 in MI

Livability — Jackson

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #197
• US rank: #4970

Category grades

Amenities C Commute A- Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jackson, MI
• County: Jackson County · 85,581 people
• City population: 85,581
• Metro: Jackson, MI
• Population (ZIP): 36,474
• Household income: $56,201
• Rent vs Own: 33.1% rent · 66.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1383.0

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 156,365 people
• By 2030: 153,123 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 144,981 · -7.3%
• By 2050: 135,671 · -13.2%
• By 2075: 113,833 · -27.2%
• By 2100: 86,592 · -44.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 15% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.3) · D 38.6% · R 59.9% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.7pp toward R · 2008: 2.4pp · 2024: -21.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.3 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+20.1 2012: R+5.8 2008: D+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -98.09%
• Current HPI: 211.5474
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.54%
• Metro: Jackson, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Pending — SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-05-26 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-26 Listed $70,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-26 Listed $70,000 SW Michigan MLS

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,421 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.