Rio Grande Plan · Todd Mission, TX 77316

$285,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,507 sqft · SingleFamily · 446 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The wonderful, two-story Rio Grande home features an open-concept layout that is ideal for most any lifestyle. Upon entry, you are met with a private study room, a walk-in utility room, a closet, and access to your two-car garage. If you need extra storage space to store holiday decorations, tools, or even another car, opt to tack on an additional five feet for a two-and a half car garage or a full three-car garage! You are soon met with the soul of the home - the massive family room with two-story ceilings serving as the perfect place for entertaining, as well as the conjoined kitchen and breakfast area providing optimal convenience. The kitchen is fully equipped with sleek granite countertops, flat-panel birch cabinets, and industry-leading appliances. If you desire more counterspace, you have the option of including a kitchen island or extra cabinets! The high bar in the kitchen is ideal for the kids to eat breakfast in the mornings, and opens up to the family room, full embracing the open-concept feel. For the outdoor enthusiast, this home has the option of a spacious extended covered patio in the backyard. Head across the kitchen where you will discover the convenient downstairs powder room, and the secluded master suite. Your master bathroom is complete with cultured marble countertops, the option for dual vanities, and a large walk-in closet. Upgrade the master bathroom by opting for a luxury bathtub with stand alone shower or a master super shower instead! Follow. ..

Key facts

• Conjoined kitchen
• Massive family room
• Private study room

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• PRIVATE STUDY ROOM
• WALK-IN UTILITY ROOM
• MASSIVE FAMILY ROOM
• CONJOINED KITCHEN
• BREAKFAST AREA

🏗️ New construction. The $285,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $305,984.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $286k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-263 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $268k (6.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $234k (18.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $234k (18.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 2.9% in Todd Mission — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#549 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 2300 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 446 days — a 12% lower offer ($252k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $234,348 (18.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 446 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.69%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $305,984
• List price: $285,990
• Delta: -6.53%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
25424 Blossom Ct	0.09mi	4/2.5	2,472 (-1%)	4mo	$299,900	$121	90
25435 Blossom Ct	0.13mi	4/2.5	2,641 (+5%)	4mo	$289,900	$110	82
25420 Blossom Ct	0.09mi	4/2.5	2,641 (+5%)	6mo	$315,900	$120	82
25011 Pomegranate Pl	0.13mi	4/2.5	2,641 (+5%)	7mo	$309,900	$117	79
25323 Carnation Ct	0.19mi	4/2.5	2,641 (+5%)	7mo	$304,900	$115	76
25136 Gold Dust Dr	0.09mi	4/2.0	2,280 (-9%)	7mo	$327,096	$143	73
25530 Blossom Ct	0.27mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,416 (-4%)	6mo	$339,603	$141	71
25227 Leather Leaf Ct	0.27mi	4/2.5	2,203 (-12%)	1mo	$272,000	$123	66
25291 Leather Leaf Ct	0.36mi	4/2.5	2,197 (-12%)	3mo	$274,990	$125	60
25308 Leather Leaf Ct	0.37mi	4/2.5	2,197 (-12%)	3mo	$274,990	$125	60
25433 Carnation Ct	0.36mi	4/2.5	2,197 (-12%)	4mo	$274,990	$125	59
25396 Carnation Ct	0.31mi	4/2.5	2,197 (-12%)	7mo	$274,990	$125	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-72,289
• Equity at exit: $45,623

10-year hold

• IRR: -32.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.26×
• Total profit: $-107,669
• Equity at exit: $26,456

Cash invested: $85,676 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77316

• Home prices YoY: -10.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 2300
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,343 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,605
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$382 /mo · $4,590/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$492
• Net cashflow: $-263

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,677

Max offer price $267,893

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-52	-5% $-158	+0% $-263	+5% $-369	+10% $-475
Rent	-10% $-448	-5% $-356	+0% $-263	+5% $-171	+10% $-78
Rate	-1.0pp $-109	-0.5pp $-185	base $-263	+0.5pp $-343	+1.0pp $-423

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,496
• Closing costs: $9,180
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $285,990 Active 446 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $285,990 Active 443 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $285,990 Active 442 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $285,990 Active 441 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $285,990 Active 440 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $285,990 Active 438 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $285,990 Active 434 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $285,990 Active 433 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $285,990 Active 432 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $285,990 Active 429 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $285,990 Active 428 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $285,990 Active 427 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $285,990 Active 426 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $285,990 Active 425 DOM
15. 2025-04-01
    listed $285,990 Active 1499-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1499 chars)

    The wonderful, two-story Rio Grande home features an open-concept layout that is ideal for most any lifestyle. Upon entry, you are met with a private study room, a walk-in utility room, a closet, and access to your two-car garage. If you need extra storage space to store holiday decorations, tools, or even another car, opt to tack on an additional five feet for a two-and a half car garage or a full three-car garage! You are soon met with the soul of the home - the massive family room with two-story ceilings serving as the perfect place for entertaining, as well as the conjoined kitchen and breakfast area providing optimal convenience. The kitchen is fully equipped with sleek granite countertops, flat-panel birch cabinets, and industry-leading appliances. If you desire more counterspace, you have the option of including a kitchen island or extra cabinets! The high bar in the kitchen is ideal for the kids to eat breakfast in the mornings, and opens up to the family room, full embracing the open-concept feel. For the outdoor enthusiast, this home has the option of a spacious extended covered patio in the backyard. Head across the kitchen where you will discover the convenient downstairs powder room, and the secluded master suite. Your master bathroom is complete with cultured marble countertops, the option for dual vanities, and a large walk-in closet. Upgrade the master bathroom by opting for a luxury bathtub with stand alone shower or a master super shower instead! Follow. ..

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 98% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,122
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,140
• − Property taxes: −$4,590
• − Insurance: −$1,530
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,250
• − Management: −$2,250
• − Depreciation: −$8,901
• Taxable loss: −$8,539
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,049
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,110/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Todd Mission

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #549
• US rank: #10627

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,694
• Household income: $124,055
• Rent vs Own: 10.9% rent · 89.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 273.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.44%
• Current HPI: 262.6973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.40%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-04-01 Listed $285,990 Zillow