317 E Lake Ave · Fort Sumner, NM 88119

$90,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · SingleFamily · 6 Days on market

Built 1945

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.9/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Appreciation +6.2/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Cozy 3-bedroom, 2-bath home situated on an expansive 7-lot property in Fort Sumner. This residence features a cozy wood-burning insert stove, a dedicated laundry room, and a fully fenced yard—perfect for privacy, pets, or outdoor entertaining. Car enthusiasts or those needing ample covered parking will appreciate the impressive 7-car carport. With plenty of space both inside and out, this property offers comfort, functionality, and room to grow.

Key facts

• Fully fenced yard
• 7-car carport
• 7 garage spots

Tags

• WOOD-BURNING INSERT STOVE
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM
• FULLY FENCED YARD
• 7-CAR CARPORT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $304 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#86 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Fort Sumner Municipal Schools (rural): math 25% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #18 of 95 in NM (top 19%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 30 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($622 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (2.4% local appreciation)).
• De Baca County population projected at -29% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $90,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.48%
• DSCR: 1.64
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.37% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.08×
• Total profit: $27,211
• Equity at exit: $37,320

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.92×
• Total profit: $73,481
• Equity at exit: $55,178

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88119

• Home prices YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 30
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,071 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax from tax record: −$32 /mo · $388/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$225
• Net cashflow: $304

Break-even live

Break-even rent $686

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $355	-5% $329	+0% $304	+5% $279	+10% $253
Rent	-10% $219	-5% $262	+0% $304	+5% $346	+10% $389
Rate	-1.0pp $349	-0.5pp $327	base $304	+0.5pp $281	+1.0pp $257

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-20
   status Active
3. 2026-04-17
   status Pending
4. 2026-04-14
   listed $90,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $388 · $32/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $720 · $60/mo
• Expected delta: +$332/yr (+$28/mo · 85.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,847
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$388
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,028
• − Management: −$1,028
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $2,294
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$551
• After-tax cash flow: $3,097/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Sumner Municipal Schools
• NCES district ID: 3501050
• Math proficiency: 25% —
• Reading proficiency: 50% —
• Median HH income: $33,537
• Composite: 33.33/100
• National rank: #10572
• State rank: #18 of 95 in NM

Livability — Fort Sumner

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #86
• US rank: #16779

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fort Sumner, NM
• Population (ZIP): 1,467

Population outlook (De Baca County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,568 people
• By 2030: 1,458 · -7.0%
• By 2040: 1,272 · -18.9%
• By 2050: 1,120 · -28.6%
• By 2075: 815 · -48.0%
• By 2100: 511 · -67.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 67% White 31% Two or more races 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0% · Canada
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 37% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · De Baca

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.7) · D 23.6% · R 74.3% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.3pp toward R · 2008: -30.4pp · 2024: -50.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.7 2020: R+47.2 2016: R+47.1 2012: R+33.2 2008: R+30.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.37%
• Current HPI: 75.3427
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Pending — NMMLS
• 2026-04-20 Relisted — NMMLS
• 2026-04-17 Pending — NMMLS
• 2026-04-14 Listed $90,000 NMMLS

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $388 · -25.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.