17457 SE 81st Newberry Ct · The Villages, FL 32162

$219,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,163 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 2002 3,485 sqft lot $188/sqft · 25% below area Est $292k · 25% under $205/mo HOA · 6% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Very Nice Colony Patio Villa. NO BOND! Turnkey. Beautiful wood flooring. No carpet. New roof 2021.Water Heater in 2020. Granite counters in Kitchen and Baths. Pull outs in Kitchen. Lighting above cabinets. Very nice stainless appliances. Enjoy your morning coffee on the enclosed Lanai. Totally ready to move right in! More photos coming!

Key facts

• Gas stove
• Granite countertops
• New roof

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• NEW GAS HOT WATER HEATER
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• PULL-OUT SHELVING
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GAS STOVE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Community features: gated, fitness center, pool, trails, dog park; Directions available
• Financial info: Other annual assessment approx. $436; Lease restrictions: none indicated
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fees (approx. $205); Annual association fees (approx. $2,460); Association amenities include fitness center, pool, pickleball courts, recreation facilities, trails, dog park; Deed restrictions and special community restrictions; Golf and golf cart friendly; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Security: Gated community; Security (community)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Underground utilities; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Builder model: Colony Villa; Faces west; PUD zoning; CDD community
• Construction: Vinyl siding and frame construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built with frame
• Exterior features: Enclosed patio/porch; Front porch; Rain gutters; Sidewalk; Sliding doors; Landscaped lot with mature landscaping and trees; Near golf course; Paved surfaces

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Range hood; Refrigerator; Stone countertops; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile flooring; Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Living room/dining room combo; Open floorplan; Stone countertops; Thermostat; Walk-in closets; Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in garage; Washer; Dryer; Gas water heater; Irrigation equipment

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $219k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $889 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $219k).
• Recommended offer: $212k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.2% vs local median 5.0% in The Villages — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#431 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 551 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,413/mo this rent would consume 55% of the median local household income ($74k/yr) (locally 987% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.9% rent growth), your $61k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($212k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $212,430 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.56% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.40%
• DSCR: 1.77
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $291,942
• List price: $219,000
• Delta: -24.99%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17395 SE 82nd Pecan Ter	0.15mi	2/2.0	1,202 (+3%)	0mo	$229,900	$191	87
8385 SE 173rd Hendricks Ln	0.25mi	2/2.0	1,177 (+1%)	10mo	$295,000	$251	78
17400 SE 77th Sycamore Ave	0.45mi	2/2.0	1,198 (+3%)	8mo	$239,000	$199	68
17415 SE 82nd Pecan Ter	0.14mi	2/1.0	1,071 (-8%)	10mo	$229,900	$215	67
16952 SE 81st Charlesfort Ave	0.49mi	2/2.0	1,163 (0%)	20mo	$245,000	$211	60
17126 SE 78th Larchmont Ct	0.43mi	2/2.0	1,229 (+6%)	14mo	$352,000	$286	59
17385 SE 76th Champion Ave	0.55mi	2/2.0	1,125 (-3%)	13mo	$305,000	$271	58
1842 Captiva Ct	0.62mi	2/2.0	1,148 (-1%)	16mo	$280,000	$244	56
1812 Sanibel Ct	0.69mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,229 (+6%)	5mo	$301,000	$245	50
1843 Captiva Ct	0.63mi	2/2.0	1,333 (+15%)	21mo	$289,000	$217	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.40×
• Total profit: $24,578
• Equity at exit: $32,654

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.77×
• Total profit: $108,614
• Equity at exit: $18,935

Cash invested: $61,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32162

• Home prices YoY: -6.9%
• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 551
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,413 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,148
• Tax from tax record: −$362 /mo · $4,348/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$205
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$717
• Net cashflow: $889

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,287

Max offer price $219,000

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,013	-5% $951	+0% $889	+5% $827	+10% $765
Rent	-10% $620	-5% $755	+0% $889	+5% $1,024	+10% $1,159
Rate	-1.0pp $1,000	-0.5pp $945	base $889	+0.5pp $833	+1.0pp $775

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,750
• Closing costs: $6,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17400 SE 82nd Roslyn Ct The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1138	$4,700	$4.13	22d	1	0.10mi
17324 SE 82nd Pecan Ter The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1358	$2,500	$1.84	22d	1	0.16mi
17442 SE 79th Lovewood Ave The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1148	$4,500	$3.92	22d	1	0.24mi
8544 SE 177th Bartram Loop The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1265	$1,900	$1.50	22d	1	0.46mi
7630 SE 174th Gaillard Pl The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1265	$4,500	$3.56	22d	1	0.54mi
1808 Peachtree Ave The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1182	$2,500	$2.12	22d	1	1.14mi
16962 SE 94th Sunnybrook Cir The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1160	$2,000	$1.72	22d	1	1.35mi
17713 SE 95th Cir Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,000	$1.38	22d	1	1.43mi
2909 Meadow Lawn Ln The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1132	$4,300	$3.80	22d	1	1.45mi
1648 Belle Grove Dr The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1132	$4,250	$3.75	22d	1	1.46mi
9523 SE 168th Maplesong Ln The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1265	$1,975	$1.56	22d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $205 · $2,460/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 35 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $219,000 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $219,000 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $219,000 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $219,000 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   price $219,000 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $229,000 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $229,000 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,000 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $229,000 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $229,000 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $229,000 Active 24 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $229,000 Active 23 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $229,000 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $229,000 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $229,000 Active 17 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $229,000 Active 16 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $229,000 Active 15 DOM
18. 2026-05-15
    listed $229,000 Active 867-char remark
19. 2022-04-12
    soldstatus $314,900 Closed 339-char remark

    Show marketing remark (339 chars)

    Very Nice Colony Patio Villa. NO BOND! Turnkey. Beautiful wood flooring. No carpet. New roof 2021.Water Heater in 2020. Granite counters in Kitchen and Baths. Pull outs in Kitchen. Lighting above cabinets. Very nice stainless appliances. Enjoy your morning coffee on the enclosed Lanai. Totally ready to move right in! More photos coming!

20. 2022-03-14
    status Pending 339-char remark

    Show marketing remark (339 chars)

    Very Nice Colony Patio Villa. NO BOND! Turnkey. Beautiful wood flooring. No carpet. New roof 2021.Water Heater in 2020. Granite counters in Kitchen and Baths. Pull outs in Kitchen. Lighting above cabinets. Very nice stainless appliances. Enjoy your morning coffee on the enclosed Lanai. Totally ready to move right in! More photos coming!

21. 2022-03-03
    listed $314,900 Active 339-char remark

    Show marketing remark (339 chars)

    Very Nice Colony Patio Villa. NO BOND! Turnkey. Beautiful wood flooring. No carpet. New roof 2021.Water Heater in 2020. Granite counters in Kitchen and Baths. Pull outs in Kitchen. Lighting above cabinets. Very nice stainless appliances. Enjoy your morning coffee on the enclosed Lanai. Totally ready to move right in! More photos coming!

22. 2022-02-22
    soldstatus $266,800
23. 2015-12-16
    soldstatus $151,000
24. 2015-12-15
    soldstatus $151,000

    Show marketing remark (343 chars)

    BOND PAID, TURN-KEY FURNISHED Colony villa with granite countertops, stainless steel appliances and very nice hardwood floors throughout. The lanai is enclosed with heat/air to create a den / Florida room, and the garage is complete with a screen door. Lots of value here. Property is leased for Feb and Mar 2016, new owner must honor leases -

25. 2015-12-15
    soldstatus $151,000

    Show marketing remark (343 chars)

    BOND PAID, TURN-KEY FURNISHED Colony villa with granite countertops, stainless steel appliances and very nice hardwood floors throughout. The lanai is enclosed with heat/air to create a den / Florida room, and the garage is complete with a screen door. Lots of value here. Property is leased for Feb and Mar 2016, new owner must honor leases -

26. 2015-10-21
    listed $154,900

    Show marketing remark (343 chars)

    BOND PAID, TURN-KEY FURNISHED Colony villa with granite countertops, stainless steel appliances and very nice hardwood floors throughout. The lanai is enclosed with heat/air to create a den / Florida room, and the garage is complete with a screen door. Lots of value here. Property is leased for Feb and Mar 2016, new owner must honor leases -

27. 2015-10-13
    listed $154,900
28. 2012-11-14
    historical
29. 2012-11-12
    historical
30. 2012-10-15
    listed $144,900
31. 2012-10-15
    listed $144,900
32. 2006-10-20
    soldstatus $160,000
33. 2006-10-17
    soldstatus $160,000
34. 2006-04-04
    listed $179,900
35. 2006-04-04
    listed $179,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,348 · $362/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,348 · $362/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,958
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,267
• − Property taxes: −$4,348
• − Insurance: −$1,095
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,277
• − Management: −$3,277
• − HOA: −$2,460
• − Depreciation: −$6,371
• Taxable income: $7,864
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,887
• After-tax cash flow: $8,785/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — The Villages

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #431
• US rank: #7363

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: The Villages, FL
• County: Sumter County · 110,591 people
• City population: 83,973
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• Population (ZIP): 55,424
• Household income: $74,119
• Rent vs Own: 7.1% rent · 92.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 987.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -16.16%
• Current HPI: 218.1956
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.92%
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+21.7% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Price Changed $219,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-15 Listed $229,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-12 Sold (MLS) $314,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-03-14 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-03-03 Listed $314,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-02-22 Sold (Public Records) $266,800 Public Records
• 2015-12-16 Sold (Public Records) $151,000 Public Records
• 2015-12-15 Sold (MLS) $151,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-12-15 Sold (MLS) $151,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-10-21 Listed $154,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-10-13 Listed $154,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-11-14 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-11-12 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-10-15 Listed $144,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-10-15 Listed $144,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-10-20 Sold (Public Records) $160,000 Public Records
• 2006-10-17 Sold (MLS) $160,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-04-04 Listed $179,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-04-04 Listed $179,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+9.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,348 · +5.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.