952 Francis Ave · Toledo, OH 43609

$82,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 725 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 42 Days on market

Built 1951 3,500 sqft lot $114/sqft · 10% above area Est $75k · 10% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.2/30.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• Appreciation +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Rent growth +4.5/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• ARV discount +2.9/15.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 952 Francis Avenue—where charm, simplicity, and smart living come together in a beautifully maintained home that's truly move-in ready. From the moment you arrive, you'll appreciate the inviting front porch—perfect for morning coffee or unwinding at the end of the day. Inside, warm hardwood floors flow through the main living spaces, creating a cozy yet timeless feel filled with natural light. The layout offers a comfortable living area that seamlessly connects to a functional eat-in kitchen with new flooring, complete with ample cabinetry and space for everyday dining. Two well-sized bedrooms provide flexibility for a variety of lifestyles, while the full bath featur

Key facts

• Inviting front porch
• Ample cabinetry
• New flooring

Tags

• INVITING FRONT PORCH
• WARM HARDWOOD FLOORS
• FUNCTIONAL EAT-IN KITCHEN
• NEW FLOORING
• AMPLE CABINETRY
• FULL BASEMENT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area reported as 725 (public records); Below-grade finished area reported as 325

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces; Street parking
• Utilities: Cable available; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family house; One story; No attached units; No common walls; Located on a 0.08-acre lot
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Block foundation; Built (year from public records)
• Exterior features: Partial fencing; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator; Water heater
• Bedrooms: Bedroom 2 on the main level; Additional bedroom(s) on the main level
• Flooring: Tile; Vinyl; Wood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); 4 total rooms; Has basement (block foundation); Covered porch
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $82k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $104 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($838 rent vs $82k).
• Recommended offer: $80k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#645 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, crime F, commute F.
• Toledo City (urban): math 15% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #634 of 656 in OH (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Arlington Elementary School (math 12% / reading 14%, grade F, #1,429 of 1,584 statewide, top 90%, 327 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 72% district-wide (72 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.8%/yr); 99 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 415 units permitted in Lucas County in 2024 (122 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($570 loan paydown + $618 appreciation (0.8% local appreciation)).
• Lucas County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (0.8% appreciation + 7.8% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($80k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $82k implies a 84% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $80,025 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.40%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $74,862
• List price: $82,500
• Delta: 10.20%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
939 Francis Ave	0.03mi	2/1.0	725 (0%)	6mo	$61,800	$85	94
1011 Atlantic Ave	0.14mi	2/1.0	721 (-1%)	9mo	$94,000	$130	85
940 Francis Ave	0.02mi	2/1.0	659 (-9%)	7mo	$76,000	$115	78
1043 Atlantic Ave	0.17mi	2/1.0	812 (+12%)	8mo	$103,500	$127	65
1011 National Ave	0.09mi	2/1.0	833 (+15%)	8mo	$81,000	$97	65
2144 Aberdeen Ave	0.47mi	2/1.0	788 (+9%)	2mo	$116,000	$147	62
513 Federman St	0.66mi	2/1.0	726 (+0%)	13mo	$84,900	$117	58
634 Woodsdale Ave	0.49mi	2/1.0	682 (-6%)	12mo	$53,000	$78	58
837 Woodsdale Ave	0.33mi	2/1.0	638 (-12%)	10mo	$55,000	$86	56
769 Colima Dr	0.69mi	2/1.0	768 (+6%)	2mo	$107,500	$140	56
1333 Abbott Ave	0.63mi	1/1.0 (-1)	694 (-4%)	10mo	$91,245	$131	50
732 Colima Dr	0.74mi	2/1.0	829 (+14%)	2mo	$126,000	$152	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.75% appreciation · 7.8% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.49×
• Total profit: $11,406
• Equity at exit: $27,093

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.25×
• Total profit: $51,984
• Equity at exit: $35,191

Cash invested: $23,100 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 43609

• Home prices YoY: 0.3%
• Rents YoY: 7.8%
• Active inventory: 99
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $838 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$433
• Tax from tax record: −$91 /mo · $1,097/yr
• Insurance: −$34
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$176
• Net cashflow: $104

Break-even live

Break-even rent $707

Max offer price $82,500

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,625
• Closing costs: $2,475
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1734 Arlington Ave Toledo, OH	2.0	1.0	700	$800	$1.14	13d	1	0.37mi
707 Toronto Ave Toledo, OH	1.0	1.0	750	$775	$1.03	23d	1	0.48mi
538 Nicholas St Unit B Toledo, OH	1.0	1.0	600	$600	$1.00	43d	1	0.83mi
2820 Airport Hwy Toledo, OH	1.0	1.0	580	$679	$1.17	13d	1	1.04mi
2820 Airport Hwy Toledo, OH	1.0	1.0	580	$704	$1.21	23d	1	1.04mi
2820 Airport Hwy Toledo, OH	1.0	1.0	580	$679	$1.17	43d	1	1.04mi
1532 Pennelwood Dr Unit 1521P-2 Toledo, OH	1.0	1.0	484	$720	$1.49	43d	1	1.21mi
1223 Oak Hill Ct Toledo, OH	1.0–2.0	1.0	800	$989	$1.24	13d	1	1.35mi
1037 Orchard St Toledo, OH	2.0	1.0	696	$820	$1.18	21d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $82,500 Pending 42 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $82,500 Contingent 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $82,500 Contingent 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $82,500 Contingent 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $82,500 Contingent 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $82,500 Contingent 35 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $82,500 Contingent 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $82,500 Contingent 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $82,500 Contingent 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $82,500 Contingent 29 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $82,500 Contingent 28 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $82,500 Contingent 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $82,500 Contingent 26 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $82,500 Contingent 25 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $82,500 Contingent 24 DOM
16. 2026-05-18
    status Active 1225-char remark
17. 2026-05-11
    historical Contingent 1225-char remark
18. 2026-05-06
    listed $82,500 Active 1225-char remark
19. 1998-10-06
    soldstatus $44,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,097 · $91/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,192 · $99/mo
• Expected delta: +$95/yr (+$8/mo · 8.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,062
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,621
• − Property taxes: −$1,097
• − Insurance: −$412
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$805
• − Management: −$805
• − Depreciation: −$2,400
• Taxable loss: −$80
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$19
• After-tax cash flow: $1,266/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Toledo City
• NCES district ID: 3904490
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $32,137
• Composite: 15.76/100
• National rank: #9276
• State rank: #634 of 656 in OH

Livability — Toledo

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #645
• US rank: #11442

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Toledo, OH
• County: Lucas County · 380,724 people
• City population: 280,811
• Metro: Toledo, OH
• Population (ZIP): 21,404
• Household income: $42,313
• Rent vs Own: 55.7% rent · 44.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1603.0

Population outlook (Lucas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,751 people
• By 2030: 410,187 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 384,019 · -8.7%
• By 2050: 355,125 · -15.6%
• By 2075: 291,683 · -30.7%
• By 2100: 233,670 · -44.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Black 29% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% Arabic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lucas

• 2024 margin: D (+12.6) · D 55.8% · R 43.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.9pp toward R · 2008: 31.4pp · 2024: 12.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.6 2020: D+16.8 2016: D+17.4 2012: D+30.4 2008: D+31.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.75%
• Current HPI: 235.2515
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.80%
• Metro: Toledo, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+83.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Pending — NORIS
• 2026-05-22 Contingent — NORIS
• 2026-05-18 Relisted — NORIS
• 2026-05-11 Contingent — NORIS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $82,500 NORIS
• 1998-10-06 Sold (Public Records) $44,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,097 · -7.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.