CAPROCK Plan · Denton, TX 76249

$283,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,434 sqft · SingleFamily · 377 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Caprock is a charming one-story home, approx 1,434 sq. ft. , 3-bedroom, 2 bathrooms with a 2-car garage. The inviting front porch and entry leads to a coat closet and laundry room. Additionally, the living area is located adjacent to the open kitchen and dining area. Enjoy preparing meals and spending time together gathered around the large kitchen island. The kitchen features quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances with gas cooking range, and corner walk-in pantry. The kitchen leads to the backyard & relaxing covered patio. The bedroom 1 suite is located at the rear of the home. The secondary bedrooms are located on the opposite side of the home and share the spacious secondary bathroom between them. Additional features include covered patio off the kitchen, and Luxury vinyl flooring at Entry, Hallways (per plan), Kitchen/Breakfast, Family Room, Utility and Bathrooms. You'll enjoy added security in your new home with our Home is Connected features. Using one central hub that talks to all the devices in your home, you can control the lights, thermostat and locks, all from your cellular device. Photos shown here may not depict the specified home and features and are included for illustration purposes only. Elevations, exterior/ interior colors, options, available upgrades, and standard features will vary in each community and may change without notice.

Key facts

• Large kitchen island
• Quartz countertops
• Laundry room

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• COAT CLOSET
• LAUNDRY ROOM
• LARGE KITCHEN ISLAND
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

🏗️ New construction. The $283,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $320,715.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $284k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-520 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $245k (13.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (24.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $215k (24.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 3.4% in Denton — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 88/100 on livability (#2 in TX, #210 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Krum ISD (rural): math 44% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #218 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Krum Early Education Center (430 students, 49% FRL); Krum Middle (math 48% / reading 47%, grade C-, #408 of 1,662 statewide, top 25%, 541 students, 37% FRL); Krum H S (math 37% / reading 52%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 686 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: 427 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 66d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 63% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 377 days — a 12% lower offer ($250k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $214,719 (24.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 377 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.35%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.95%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $320,715
• List price: $283,990
• Delta: -11.45%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5413 Rollins Dr	0.07mi	3/2.5	1,470 (+2%)	0mo	$280,680	$191	90
5409 Flannel Ln	0.17mi	3/2.5	1,470 (+2%)	1mo	$274,990	$187	86
5528 Flannel Ln	0.20mi	3/2.5	1,470 (+2%)	2mo	$274,990	$187	83
1313 Tin Roof Rd	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,411 (-2%)	1mo	$309,990	$220	79
5521 Rollins Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,280 (-11%)	0mo	$249,990	$195	74
5508 Flannel Ln	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,280 (-11%)	1mo	$250,730	$196	73
1617 Tin Roof Rd	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,544 (+8%)	1mo	$304,990	$198	72
5540 Flannel Ln	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,280 (-11%)	2mo	$242,990	$190	71
5553 Rollins Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,280 (-11%)	2mo	$249,990	$195	70
1417 Tin Roof Rd	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,302 (-9%)	0mo	$299,990	$230	69
5536 Corduroy Rd	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,280 (-11%)	2mo	$254,990	$199	68
1421 Tin Roof Rd	0.32mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,544 (+8%)	1mo	$309,990	$201	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-85,063
• Equity at exit: $47,820

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.30×
• Total profit: $-116,595
• Equity at exit: $27,730

Cash invested: $89,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 41 active · 37 under contract
• Months of supply: 6.6 mo (15%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $293,990 ($199/sqft)
• Median days on market: 134 d
• This list price: 27% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +12.3% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76249

• Home prices YoY: -11.1%
• Active inventory: 427
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,147 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,682
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$401 /mo · $4,811/yr
• Insurance: −$134
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$451
• Net cashflow: $-520

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,806

Max offer price $245,454

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-298	-5% $-409	+0% $-520	+5% $-631	+10% $-742
Rent	-10% $-690	-5% $-605	+0% $-520	+5% $-435	+10% $-350
Rate	-1.0pp $-359	-0.5pp $-439	base $-520	+0.5pp $-603	+1.0pp $-688

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $80,179
• Closing costs: $9,621
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 30 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5413 Flannel Ln Krum, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$2,100	$1.64	77d	1	0.08mi
5413 Flannel Ln Krum, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$2,050	$1.60	65d	1	0.08mi
5413 Flannel Ln Krum, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,950	$1.52	10d	1	0.08mi
5412 Flannel Ln Krum, TX	4.0	2.0	1586	$2,000	$1.26	73d	1	0.13mi
5412 Flannel Ln Krum, TX	4.0	2.0	1566	$1,995	$1.27	10d	1	0.13mi
5509 Rollins Dr Krum, TX	3.0	2.0	1434	$1,875	$1.31	51d	1	0.13mi
5509 Flannel Ln Krum, TX	4.0	2.0	1570	$2,100	$1.34	53d	1	0.16mi
5529 Rollins Dr Krum, TX	3.0	2.0	1434	$1,875	$1.31	51d	1	0.16mi
5504 Corduroy Rd Krum, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$2,150	$1.68	10d	1	0.19mi
5533 Flannel Ln Krum, TX	4.0	2.0	1572	$2,100	$1.34	130d	1	0.20mi
5549 Rollins Dr Krum, TX	3.0	2.0	1434	$2,150	$1.50	10d	1	0.20mi
5544 Flannel Ln Krum, TX	3.0	2.0	1434	$2,100	$1.46	131d	1	0.20mi
5557 Rollins Dr Krum, TX	4.0	2.0	1566	$1,995	$1.27	10d	1	0.21mi
5552 Rollins Dr Krum, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,200	$1.52	163d	1	0.22mi
1628 Alberque Dr Krum, TX	4.0	2.0	1875	$2,500	$1.33	12d	1	0.22mi
1628 Alberque Dr Krum, TX	4.0	2.0	1875	$2,500	$1.33	0d	1	0.22mi
1612 Tin Roof Rd Krum, TX	3.0	2.0	1399	$1,900	$1.36	10d	1	0.25mi
1612 Tin Roof Rd Krum, TX	3.0	2.0	1399	$2,100	$1.50	104d	1	0.25mi
1613 Tin Roof Rd Krum, TX	4.0	2.0	1681	$2,100	$1.25	82d	1	0.28mi
5568 Corduroy Rd Krum, TX	4.0	2.5	1568	$2,100	$1.34	131d	1	0.29mi
8540 W University Dr Denton, TX	2.0	2.0	1302	$1,365	$1.05	10d	1	0.42mi
987 Radecke Rd Krum, TX	3.0	2.0	1716	$1,850	$1.08	95d	1	0.78mi
414 Spurlock Dr Krum, TX	3.0	2.0	1637	$1,900	$1.16	112d	1	1.29mi
410 Spurlock Dr Krum, TX	3.0	2.0	1631	$1,775	$1.09	3d	1	1.31mi
1114 Spring Flower Dr Krum, TX	3.0	2.0	1736	$2,000	$1.15	110d	1	1.34mi
1106 Spring Flower Dr Krum, TX	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,800	$1.15	184d	1	1.36mi
1633 Kawati Way Krum, TX	3.0	2.0	1874	$2,000	$1.07	165d	1	1.38mi
309 Spurlock Dr Krum, TX	3.0	2.0	1637	$2,000	$1.22	6d	1	1.43mi
1415 Aztec Trl Krum, TX	3.0	2.0	1585	$2,050	$1.29	144d	1	1.47mi
1308 Wenatchee Dr Krum, TX	3.0	2.0	1618	$1,995	$1.23	65d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $283,990 Active 377 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $283,990 Active 376 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $283,990 Active 375 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $283,990 Active 374 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $283,990 Active 373 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $283,990 Active 371 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $283,990 Active 370 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $283,990 Active 369 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $283,990 Active 368 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $283,990 Active 367 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $283,990 Active 366 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $283,990 Active 365 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $283,990 Active 364 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $283,990 Active 363 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $283,990 Active 362 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $283,990 Active 361 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $283,990 Active 360 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $283,990 Active 359 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $283,990 Active 358 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $283,990 Active 357 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $283,990 Active 356 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $283,990 Active 355 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $283,990 Active 354 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $283,990 Active 353 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $283,990 Active 352 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $283,990 Active 351 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $283,990 Active 350 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $283,990 Active 349 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $283,990 Active 348 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $283,990 Active 347 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $283,990 Active 346 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $283,990 Active 345 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $283,990 Active 344 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $283,990 Active 343 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $283,990 Active 342 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $283,990 Active 341 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $283,990 Active 340 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $283,990 Active 339 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $283,990 Active 338 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $283,990 Active 337 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $283,990 Active 336 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $283,990 Active 335 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $283,990 Active 334 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $283,990 Active 333 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $283,990 Active 332 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $283,990 Active 331 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $283,990 Active 330 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $283,990 Active 329 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $283,990 Active 328 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $283,990 Active 327 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,766
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,965
• − Property taxes: −$4,811
• − Insurance: −$1,604
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,061
• − Management: −$2,061
• − Depreciation: −$9,330
• Taxable loss: −$12,066
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,896
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,346/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 11 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This one-story home is in good condition with a modern kitchen and well-maintained exterior. It has potential for further value increases through minor updates and improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained yard can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both New flooring in the bedrooms — Replacing carpet with hardwood or tile can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizing the kitchen can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Adding a smart home system — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more energy-efficient and convenient. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 46/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Krum Early Education Center Middle Krum Middle C- TX #408/1,662 Nat'l #4,042/14,009 High Krum H S F TX #652/1,632 Nat'l #6,890/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Krum ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825980
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $71,808
• Composite: 40.72/100
• National rank: #3664
• State rank: #218 of 826 in TX

A Composite livability gradescore 88/100

Livability — Denton

• Score: 88/100
• State rank: #2
• US rank: #210

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime B Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Denton County · 1,053,010 people
• City population: 127,990
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,637
• Household income: $120,169
• Rent vs Own: 18.4% rent · 81.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 2% of renters

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Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 12% Arabic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -34.45%
• Current HPI: 276.067
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-10-28 Listed $283,990 Zillow