29021 Bouquet Cyn #290 · Santa Clarita, CA 91390

$245,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · Manufactured public records · 66 Days on market

Built 1997 21 ac lot Est $247k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.9/15.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Lily of the Valley. This home is spacious and well-maintained, offering comfort, charm, and easy living. This clean and inviting residence features an open layout with plenty of room to relax and entertain. Step outside to enjoy the cute outdoor space, perfect for morning coffee, gardening, or simply unwinding. Whether you're looking for a peaceful retreat or a low-maintenance lifestyle, this home is a wonderful opportunity in a welcoming community. Don’t miss your chance to make it yours!

Key facts

• Open layout
• Outdoor space
• 20.85 acre lot

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• OUTDOOR SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size per assessor's data; Living area source: Assessor's data; Elevation units: Feet; Parcel number available
• Financial info: Land lease amount: $1,180.31
• HOA & community: Land lease community

Exterior

• Parking: Located in Lily of the Valley park
• Utilities: Public sewer; District/public water
• Home design: Single-story; Entry level: 1
• Construction: Mobile home remains on site; Mobile dimensions approximately 64 by 24; Year built source: Other
• Exterior features: Community pool; Yard; Close to clubhouse; Street lighting (community)

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Entry on Bouquet Canyon Road
• Laundry & utility: Washer included; Dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($19k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $245k).
• Recommended offer: $230k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.0% vs local median 2.8% in Santa Clarita — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#229 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A, crime A-; Watch: amenities D+, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• William S. Hart Union High (suburban): math 52% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #155 of 1,400 in CA (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 97 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $69k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($230k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $230,300 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.38%
• DSCR: 2.22
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $247,296
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
29021 Bouquet Canyon Rd #274	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,560 (+2%)	10mo	$250,000	$160	84
29021 Bouquet Canyon Rd	0.01mi	4/2.0	1,620 (+6%)	7mo	$310,000	$191	84
29021 Bouquet Canyon Rd #249	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,620 (+6%)	10mo	$260,000	$160	78
29021 Bouquet Canyon Rd #373	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-12%)	11mo	$217,000	$161	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.87×
• Total profit: $59,902
• Equity at exit: $36,530

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.63×
• Total profit: $180,147
• Equity at exit: $21,183

Cash invested: $68,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 91390

• Home prices YoY: -33.8%
• Active inventory: 97
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,807 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax from tax record: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$800
• Net cashflow: $1,565

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,826

Max offer price $245,000

Occupancy floor 54%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,250
• Closing costs: $7,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20535 Alaminos Dr Santa Clarita, CA	3.0	2.0	1562	$3,849	$2.46	1d	1	0.82mi
28189 Oaklar Dr Unit MEA2 Santa Clarita, CA	4.0	2.0	1668	$4,095	$2.46	1d	1	1.31mi
28189 Oaklar Dr Santa Clarita, CA	4.0	2.0	1668	$4,095	$2.46	3d	1	1.31mi
20000 Plum Canyon Rd Santa Clarita, CA	3.0	3.0	1370	$3,700	$2.70	1d	1	1.33mi
20000 Plum Canyon Rd Santa Clarita, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1051	$3,700	$3.52	24d	2	1.34mi
28371 Mirabelle Ln Santa Clarita, CA	3.0	2.5	1710	$3,400	$1.99	6d	1	1.43mi
19341 Opal Ln Santa Clarita, CA	3.0	3.0	1850	$3,850	$2.08	18d	1	1.45mi
28366 Casselman Ln Santa Clarita, CA	3.0	2.5	1710	$3,650	$2.13	1d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $245,000 Active 66 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $245,000 Active 65 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $245,000 Active 64 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $245,000 Active 63 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $245,000 Active 61 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $245,000 Active 60 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $245,000 Active 57 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $245,000 Active 56 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $245,000 Active 55 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $245,000 Active 52 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $245,000 Active 51 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $245,000 Active 50 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $245,000 Active 49 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $245,000 Active 48 DOM
15. 2026-04-13
    listed $245,000 Active
16. 2019-04-25
    historical
17. 2019-03-13
    listed $99,000 Active
18. 2010-02-19
    historical
19. 2009-12-02
    price $79,900
20. 2009-02-26
    listed $89,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $666 · $56/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,862 · $155/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,196/yr (+$100/mo · 179.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 14 unhealthy d/yr today · 17 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $45,688
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,724
• − Property taxes: −$666
• − Insurance: −$1,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,655
• − Management: −$3,655
• − Depreciation: −$7,127
• Taxable income: $15,635
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,752
• After-tax cash flow: $15,032/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: William S. Hart Union High
• NCES district ID: 0642510
• Math proficiency: 52% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $95,844
• Composite: 58.6/100
• National rank: #2030
• State rank: #155 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Santa Clarita

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #229
• US rank: #7378

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute C+ Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 219,066
• Population (ZIP): 18,722

Population outlook (Los Angeles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,940,515 people
• By 2030: 11,256,481 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 11,729,929 · +7.2%
• By 2050: 11,948,407 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 11,818,114 · +8.0%
• By 2100: 10,842,928 · -0.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 12% Asian 6% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Scottish 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Los Angeles

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+32.9) · D 64.8% · R 31.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.4pp toward R · 2008: 40.4pp · 2024: 32.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+32.9 2020: D+44.2 2016: D+48.0 2012: D+40.0 2008: D+40.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -165.65%
• Current HPI: 325.09
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+172.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Listed $245,000 CRMLS
• 2019-04-25 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2019-03-13 Listed $99,000 CRMLS
• 2010-02-19 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2009-12-02 Price Changed $79,900 CRMLS
• 2009-02-26 Listed $89,900 CRMLS

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $666 · +5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.