5830 Lady Bug Ln · Keystone Heights, FL 32666

$188,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1984 5.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful Location! This spacious, 1500 sq ft home sits on 5 acres of land full of trees. Comfortable. This 3/2 also has a fireplace, new appliances, and a new AC compressor. Come and see!

Key facts

• Room for gardens
• Private retreat
• Room for workshops

Tags

• 5 BEAUTIFUL ACRES
• PRIVATE RETREAT
• ROOM FOR GARDENS
• ROOM FOR ANIMALS
• ROOM FOR WORKSHOPS
• ROOM FOR RECREATIONAL VEHICLES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Other parking
• Utilities: Septic tank; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level
• Construction: Wood siding; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Shed(s); Dead-end street; Many trees / Wooded

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Primary bathroom with shower (no tub); Wood-burning fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $188k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $236 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $176k (6.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $176k (6.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 3.6% in Keystone Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#109 in FL, #1,684 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Clay (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 73 in FL (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 111 active listings in the ZIP; 1,876 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($186k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $88k; list at $188k implies a 114% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,354 (6.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.37%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-15,561
• Equity at exit: $28,106

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $5,570
• Equity at exit: $16,298

Cash invested: $52,780 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32666

• Home prices YoY: -5.4%
• Active inventory: 111
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,764 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$989
• Tax from tax record: −$90 /mo · $1,079/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$370
• Net cashflow: $236

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,464

Max offer price $188,500

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,125
• Closing costs: $5,655
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $188,500 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $188,500 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $188,500 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $188,500 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $188,500 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $188,500 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $188,500 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $188,500 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 699-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    listed $188,500 Active 4 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,079 · $90/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,565 · $130/mo
• Expected delta: +$486/yr (+$40/mo · 45.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,162
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,559
• − Property taxes: −$1,079
• − Insurance: −$942
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,693
• − Management: −$1,693
• − Depreciation: −$5,484
• Taxable loss: −$287
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$69
• After-tax cash flow: $2,904/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clay
• NCES district ID: 1200300
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $59,379
• Composite: 50.73/100
• National rank: #1815
• State rank: #14 of 73 in FL

Livability — Keystone Heights

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #1684

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,542

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 230,495 people
• By 2030: 242,427 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 262,244 · +13.8%
• By 2050: 275,148 · +19.4%
• By 2075: 295,397 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 287,592 · +24.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Black 5% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 7% Italian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.3) · D 29.9% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.6pp toward D · 2008: -42.8pp · 2024: -39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.3 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+45.8 2008: R+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -17.77%
• Current HPI: 314.0055
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+284.7% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $188,500 realMLS
• 2025-07-07 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-15 Price Changed $127,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-11 Price Changed $137,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-10 Price Changed $147,700 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-02 Listed $165,777 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-11-16 Sold (Public Records) $88,000 Public Records
• 2012-11-16 Sold (MLS) $88,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-11-16 Sold (MLS) $88,000 realMLS
• 2012-08-16 Listed $88,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-08-16 Listed $88,000 realMLS
• 1993-11-29 Sold (Public Records) $49,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,079 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.