31391 Spanish Mission Rd · San Antonio, FL 33576

$277,970

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,674 sqft · Townhouse · 29 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 2,042 sqft lot $347/mo HOA · 14% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Cash flow +4.0/30.0
• Appreciation +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under Construction. Welcome to Mirada, Located in San Antonio, FL, this neighborhood is home to the nation’s largest man-made lagoon—an impressive fifteen acres of crystal-clear blue water. Residents enjoy a resort-style experience right outside their door, with access to kayaks, paddle boards, splash zones, sandy beaches, and even a floating obstacle course. Whether you’re looking for relaxation or adventure, this one-of-a-kind amenity that delivers it all. Step into modern comfort with this beautifully designed 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath townhome, complete with a 1-car garage and a layout crafted for both style and convenience. The first-floor features 9'4" ceilings that c

Key facts

• Designer cabinets
• Concrete patio
• Paver driveway

Tags

• HARD-SURFACE FLOORING
• SOLID-SURFACE COUNTERTOPS
• DESIGNER CABINETS
• STAINLESS-STEEL APPLIANCES
• PAVER DRIVEWAY
• CONCRETE PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Home warranty included; Builder license CBC1257565
• Financial info: Other annual assessment: $1,735; Total monthly HOA fees: $347 (total annual $4,164); Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA: Ryan Homes — monthly fee $347 (includes grounds maintenance); Association amenities include gated access; Community features: park, playground, street lights; Pets allowed with number limit

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage (approx. 10x21) with garage door opener; Driveway
• Security: Smoke detector(s); Gated community
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable connected; Electricity available; Fiber optics; Sprinkler meter
• Home design: Residential townhouse; Attached property; Two levels; South-facing; Under construction (projected completion 2026-10-31)
• Construction: New construction; Block, stucco, frame and other construction materials; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Builder: Ryan Homes (Model: Mayshore)
• Exterior features: Patio; Sliding doors; Conservation area; Sidewalk; Paved lot; Fl. friendly/native landscaping; Irrigation equipment; Gunite in-ground pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in oven; Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Exhaust fan; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen/family room combo; Living room/dining room combo; Open floorplan; Stone counters; Thermostat; Walk-in closet(s); ENERGY STAR qualified windows; Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside on upper level; Inside utility room

🏗️ New construction. The $277,970 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $400,086.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $278k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $238k (14.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $253k (9.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $238k (14.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#454 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: San Antonio Elementary School (math 49% / reading 52%, grade D+, #1,055 of 2,144 statewide, top 50%, 573 students, 50% FRL); Pasco Middle School (math 38% / reading 38%, grade F, #388 of 571 statewide, top 69%, 903 students, 73% FRL); Pasco High School (math 40% / reading 40%, grade F, #296 of 667 statewide, top 45%, 1,639 students, 66% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 366 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.3%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($274k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $238,464 (14.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.96%
• DSCR: 0.47
• GRM: 13.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $400,086
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
31530 Azure Beach Dr	0.16mi	3/2.5	1,788 (+7%)	1mo	$426,602	$239	80
31536 Azure Beach Dr	0.16mi	3/2.5	1,788 (+7%)	1mo	$427,693	$239	80
11122 Tidepool Ct	0.15mi	3/2.5	1,788 (+7%)	5mo	$419,990	$235	78
11132 Tidepool Ct	0.14mi	3/2.5	1,788 (+7%)	6mo	$429,000	$240	77
31825 Kestrel Calling Dr	0.34mi	3/2.5	1,602 (-4%)	3mo	$279,990	$175	75
11126 Tidepool Ct	0.14mi	3/2.5	1,788 (+7%)	9mo	$430,385	$241	75
11208 Cay Spruce Way	0.47mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,615 (-4%)	21mo	$260,000	$161	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.32% appreciation · 0.37% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -33.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.17×
• Total profit: $-130,726
• Equity at exit: $71,892

10-year hold

• IRR: -41.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.96×
• Total profit: $-219,671
• Equity at exit: $55,985

Cash invested: $112,024 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33576

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 366
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,525 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,098
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$500 /mo · $6,001/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$347
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$530
• Net cashflow: $-1,117

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,939

Max offer price $238,464

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-840	-5% $-979	+0% $-1,117	+5% $-1,255	+10% $-1,393
Rent	-10% $-1,316	-5% $-1,217	+0% $-1,117	+5% $-1,017	+10% $-917
Rate	-1.0pp $-915	-0.5pp $-1,015	base $-1,117	+0.5pp $-1,221	+1.0pp $-1,326

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $100,022
• Closing costs: $12,003
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11126 Tidepool Ct Unit Na San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1788	$3,200	$1.79	22d	1	0.15mi
11126 Tidepool Ct San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1788	$3,200	$1.79	24d	1	0.15mi
31825 Kestrel Calling Dr San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1602	$2,300	$1.44	26d	1	0.32mi
10797 Penny Gale Loop San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1961	$2,300	$1.17	26d	1	0.45mi
11322 Cay Spruce Way Unit n/a Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	2003	$2,420	$1.21	26d	1	0.46mi
11357 Cay Spruce Way San Antonio, FL	2.0	2.5	1615	$2,100	$1.30	20d	1	0.48mi
11608 Ascend Mirada Blvd San Antonio, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1178	$2,530	$2.15	1d	21	0.49mi
31478 Ocean Ave San Antonio, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1119	$2,499	$2.23	1d	46	0.64mi
32094 Hawthorne Cottage Pl San Antonio, FL	4.0	2.0	1936	$2,795	$1.44	26d	1	0.69mi
31493 Cannon Rush Dr San Antonio, FL	2.0	2.0	1968	$2,795	$1.42	5d	1	0.70mi
11672 Radiant Shore Loop San Antonio, FL	4.0	2.5	1870	$2,495	$1.33	17d	1	0.75mi
11210 Linden Depot Rd San Antonio, FL	4.0	2.0	1936	$2,550	$1.32	7d	1	0.76mi
10817 Ironwood Tree Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1694	$2,250	$1.33	26d	1	0.78mi
10817 Ironwood Tree Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1694	$2,250	$1.33	4d	1	0.78mi
32067 Eastern Redbud Br San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1639	$2,250	$1.37	26d	1	0.82mi
10462 Weldon Cork Way San Antonio, FL	2.0	2.5	1747	$2,200	$1.26	17d	1	0.82mi
11545 Radiant Shore Loop San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.0	1451	$2,250	$1.55	26d	1	0.83mi
10715 Ironwood Tree Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1681	$2,050	$1.22	17d	1	0.87mi
10708 Ironwood Tree Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1600	$2,100	$1.31	20d	1	0.89mi
32112 Pond Apple Bnd Unit 1 San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1700	$2,000	$1.18	26d	1	0.90mi
32118 Pond Apple Bnd San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1732	$2,400	$1.39	26d	1	0.91mi
10647 Ironwood Tree Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1712	$2,400	$1.40	26d	1	0.91mi
10583 Tupper Cay Dr San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.0	1770	$2,950	$1.67	6d	1	0.96mi
10443 Lavender Aster Trl San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1666	$1,950	$1.17	26d	1	1.02mi
32077 Powderpuff Mimosa Dr San Antonio, FL	2.0	2.5	1541	$2,100	$1.36	26d	1	1.05mi
32127 Powderpuff Mimosa Dr San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$2,100	$1.29	26d	1	1.10mi
10225 Fieldstone Myrtle Way San Antonio, FL	4.0	3.0	1985	$2,800	$1.41	12d	1	1.11mi
32146 Powderpuff Mimosa Dr San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1801	$2,050	$1.14	22d	1	1.13mi
32201 Powderpuff Mimosa Dr San Antonio, FL	3.0	3.0	1634	$2,050	$1.25	26d	1	1.15mi
10375 Trumpet Honeysuckle Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1666	$2,000	$1.20	20d	1	1.19mi
10356 Honey Hammock Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1666	$1,890	$1.13	0d	1	1.19mi
10959 Cotton Vale Pl San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.0	1844	$2,100	$1.14	22d	1	1.20mi
10959 Cotton Vale Pl San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.0	1844	$2,100	$1.14	5d	1	1.20mi
10321 Trumpet Honeysuckle Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1666	$2,000	$1.20	24d	1	1.22mi
10334 Trumpet Honeysuckle Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	3.0	1634	$2,000	$1.22	26d	1	1.24mi
31856 Cardinal Yard Dr San Antonio, FL	2.0	2.0	1783	$2,500	$1.40	26d	1	1.25mi
32009 Spiceberry St San Antonio, FL	2.0	2.5	1513	$1,900	$1.26	20d	1	1.26mi
10250 Honey Hammock Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1676	$1,979	$1.18	26d	1	1.26mi
32650 Osprey Peak Way San Antonio, FL	4.0	2.0	1846	$2,600	$1.41	14d	1	1.27mi
32909 Osprey Peak Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.0	1560	$2,350	$1.51	26d	1	1.28mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $347 · $4,164/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-29
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-31
   listed $277,970 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,303
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,411
• − Property taxes: −$6,001
• − Insurance: −$2,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,424
• − Management: −$2,424
• − HOA: −$4,164
• − Depreciation: −$11,639
• Taxable loss: −$20,761
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,983
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,421/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This townhouse is under construction and is in excellent condition. It is move-in ready with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. The addition of landscaping, furniture, and smart home integration would significantly enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both Furniture — Improves the home's livability and appeal
• Both Smart home integration — Enhances convenience and adds modern appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Furniture — Improves the home's livability and appeal ↑
• Both Smart home integration — Enhances convenience and adds modern appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #454
• US rank: #8221

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 6,273
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 6,273
• Household income: $76,388
• Rent vs Own: 4.5% rent · 95.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 31.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 5% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.32%
• Current HPI: 281.7138
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.37%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-31 Listed $277,970 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid