4 Pebble Ct · Lake, PA 18436

$299,731

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,808 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 2003 0.45 ac lot $107/sqft · 26% below area Est $403k · 26% under $194/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.2/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

5-bedroom, 3-bath ranch home in The Hideout, a four-season, amenity-filled community in the Northern Poconos! This spacious home offers comfortable Pocono living within 2 hours of NYC, located on an amazing level corner property on a cul-de-sac in the desirable North Section of The Hideout. Enjoy a peaceful, private setting from both the front and rear decks, with plenty of natural surroundings and room to relax. The main level features a split floor plan with a primary bedroom and full bath, spacious rooms, large windows for great natural light, and a living room that opens to the dining area and kitchen. The kitchen offers a nice breakfast nook and center island, creating a great layout f

Key facts

• Front and rear decks
• Split floor plan
• Huge family room

Tags

• CUL-DE-SAC
• FRONT AND REAR DECKS
• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• HUGE FAMILY ROOM
• FOUR-SEASON AMENITIES
• CLUBHOUSE DINING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee; Association amenities include clubhouse, fitness center, tennis courts, pool, playground, park, lake access, golf, marina, jogging paths, picnic areas, recreation rooms, party/meeting rooms, game room, dog park, RV/boat storage, RV parking, beach rights/access, barbecue areas, maintenance structure, trash service, security and gated access

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway with on-site gravel parking
• Security: Gated community with security gate
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; 200+ amp electric service; Cable available; Water, sewer and electricity connected
• Home design: Single-family house; Two levels; Entry facing community lake (Roamingwood Lake area)
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt roof; Built with full finished basement
• Exterior features: Front porch; Rear porch; Deck; Community pool; Has view; Corner lot, level, on a cul-de-sac; Private road frontage with private road maintenance and road maintenance agreement; Paved road

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Electric oven; Microwave
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Propane heating; Fireplace heating; Ceiling fan(s) for cooling
• Interior features: Finished full basement; Two propane fireplaces; Has cooling with ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-227 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $260k (13.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $255k (15.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $255k (15.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Western Wayne SD (rural): math 39% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #165 of 539 in PA (top 31%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 337 active listings in the ZIP; 177 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$52k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $126k; list at $300k implies a 137% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $254,526 (15.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.38%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.25%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $403,080
• List price: $299,731
• Delta: -25.64%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2628 Boulder Rd	0.47mi	5/2.5	2,800 (-0%)	20mo	$400,000	$143	59
257 N Gate Rd	0.54mi	5/3.0	2,673 (-5%)	12mo	$360,000	$135	57
3262 Northgate Rd	0.50mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,836 (+1%)	18mo	$499,900	$176	55
7 Eagle Ct	0.64mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,880 (+3%)	7mo	$290,000	$101	55
66 Boulder Rd	0.56mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,640 (-6%)	8mo	$390,000	$148	51
25 Boulder Ct	0.67mi	5/3.0	2,936 (+5%)	13mo	$485,000	$165	50
149 South Fairway Dr	0.50mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,100 (+10%)	5mo	$425,000	$137	48
3295 Northgate Rd	0.61mi	4/4.0 (-1)	2,812 (+0%)	19mo	$419,900	$149	46
3067 Northgate Rd	0.70mi	5/3.0	2,922 (+4%)	18mo	$475,000	$163	45
6 Wedge Rd	0.58mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,454 (-13%)	3mo	$373,150	$152	44
78 Northwood Terrace Ter	0.49mi	4/4.0 (-1)	2,575 (-8%)	21mo	$395,000	$153	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.77×
• Total profit: $148,902
• Equity at exit: $270,021

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.36×
• Total profit: $450,159
• Equity at exit: $582,311

Cash invested: $83,925 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18436

• Home prices YoY: 16.9%
• Active inventory: 337
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,545 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,572
• Tax from tax record: −$347 /mo · $4,169/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$194
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$535
• Net cashflow: $-227

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,833

Max offer price $259,567

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,933
• Closing costs: $8,992
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $194 · $2,328/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,731 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,731 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,731 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,731 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $299,731 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,731 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $299,731 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,731 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,731 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $299,731 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,731 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,731 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,731 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,731 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $299,731 Active 18 DOM
16. 2026-05-12
    listed $299,731 Active 1269-char remark
17. 2019-11-18
    soldstatus $126,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,169 · $347/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,452 · $371/mo
• Expected delta: +$283/yr (+$24/mo · 6.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,543
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,790
• − Property taxes: −$4,169
• − Insurance: −$1,499
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,443
• − Management: −$2,443
• − HOA: −$2,328
• − Depreciation: −$8,719
• Taxable loss: −$7,848
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,884
• After-tax cash flow: $-845/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Western Wayne SD
• NCES district ID: 4226070
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,358
• Composite: 43.65/100
• National rank: #2964
• State rank: #165 of 539 in PA

Livability — Lake

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: The Hideout, PA
• Population (ZIP): 13,225

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 47,924 people
• By 2030: 46,191 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 42,815 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 39,873 · -16.8%
• By 2075: 34,556 · -27.9%
• By 2100: 28,358 · -40.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Scotch-Irish 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4%
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.1) · D 31.1% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.8pp toward R · 2008: -12.3pp · 2024: -37.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.1 2020: R+33.6 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+12.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 47.95%
• Current HPI: 331.9645
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+136.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $299,731 PWMLS
• 2019-11-18 Sold (Public Records) $126,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $4,169 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.