4721 Skyline Dr · Sunrise Shores, TX 75758

$139,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,848 sqft · Manufactured public records · 182 Days on market

Built 1996 0.30 ac lot Est $131k · 6% over $17/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.7/30.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• ARV discount +4.8/15.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Well maintained and manicured property in Sunrise Shores. 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths with huge rooms, fireplace, composite roof (replaced August of 2024), waterheater (replaced Nov. 2023), 5 ton heat-pump air conditioning system (new compressor 4 yrs ago). Fenced back yard with small storage shed. On 3 lots with lots of beautiful trees. Priced for a quick sale.

Key facts

• Fenced back yard
• Waterheater
• Manicured property

Tags

• MANICURED PROPERTY
• COMPOSITE ROOF
• WATERHEATER
• HEAT-PUMP AIR CONDITIONING
• FENCED BACK YARD
• STORAGE SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $289 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $139k).
• Recommended offer: $122k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 4.1% in Sunrise Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Brownsboro ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #290 of 826 in TX (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Chandler El (math 42% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,545 of 4,322 statewide, top 38%, 450 students, 74% FRL); Chandler Int (math 39% / reading 35%, grade F, #756 of 1,662 statewide, top 47%, 253 students, 70% FRL); Brownsboro H S (math 31% / reading 63%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 757 students, 50% FRL).
• Market conditions: 225 active listings in the ZIP; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $961 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 182 days — a 12% lower offer ($122k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 66% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $122,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 182 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.90%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $131,208
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20625 Pine Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,624 (-12%)	7mo	$115,000	$71	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-4,129
• Equity at exit: $20,725

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.52×
• Total profit: $20,101
• Equity at exit: $12,018

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75758

• Home prices YoY: -27.6%
• Active inventory: 225
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,542 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax from tax record: −$125 /mo · $1,506/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$17
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$324
• Net cashflow: $289

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,176

Max offer price $139,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $17 · $204/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-17
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-09
   status Active
3. 2026-04-06
   status Pending
4. 2025-10-14
   listed $139,000 Active
5. 2022-05-27
   soldstatus
6. 2000-05-22
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,506 · $125/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,544 · $212/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,038/yr (+$86/mo · 68.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 66% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,502
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$1,506
• − Insurance: −$695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,480
• − Management: −$1,480
• − HOA: −$204
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable income: $1,307
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$314
• After-tax cash flow: $3,151/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brownsboro ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811640
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $45,624
• Composite: 37.38/100
• National rank: #4429
• State rank: #290 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sunrise Shores

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sunrise Shores, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,357

Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,471 people
• By 2030: 80,608 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 80,087 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 78,208 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 72,423 · -10.0%
• By 2100: 61,012 · -24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 9% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 18.0% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -63.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+60.2 2016: R+60.0 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -73.16%
• Current HPI: 192.0837
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Pending — GTAR
• 2026-04-09 Relisted — GTAR
• 2026-04-06 Pending — GTAR
• 2025-10-14 Listed $139,000 GTAR
• 2022-05-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2000-05-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,506 · +8.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.