4161 Giorgio Dr · Winter Haven, FL 33884

$320,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,305 sqft · Land · 29 Days on market

Built 2026 4,356 sqft lot $17/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under Construction. Find all the space you need in our two-story Elston II floorplan in Villamar, one of our communities in Winter Haven, Florida. Inside this 4 bedroom, 2 and half bathroom home, you’ll find 2305 square feet of comfortable living. The living area is an open concept, where your kitchen blends seamlessly into a spacious great room perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features a center island with seating, plentiful cabinetry, quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances and a walk-in pantry which are sure to both turn heads and make meal prep easy. As we head upstairs, you are greeted with a loft area. The primary bedroom is located just off the l

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Plentiful cabinetry
• Two story floorplan

Tags

• TWO STORY FLOORPLAN
• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• CENTER ISLAND WITH SEATING
• PLENTIFUL CABINETRY
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $321k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-225 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $281k (12.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $236k (26.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $236k (26.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#291 in FL, #4,898 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Chain of Lakes Elementary School (math 63% / reading 60%, grade B, #634 of 2,144 statewide, top 30%, 1,130 students, 37% FRL); Lake Region High School (math 14% / reading 22%, grade F, #570 of 667 statewide, top 86%, 1,545 students, 61% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 680 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($316k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $235,678 (26.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.45%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.01%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-68,981
• Equity at exit: $47,861

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-89,074
• Equity at exit: $27,753

Cash invested: $89,877 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33884

• Home prices YoY: -34.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 680
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,357 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,683
• Tax from tax record: −$253 /mo · $3,036/yr
• Insurance: −$134
• HOA: −$17
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$495
• Net cashflow: $-225

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,642

Max offer price $281,212

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-43	-5% $-134	+0% $-225	+5% $-316	+10% $-407
Rent	-10% $-411	-5% $-318	+0% $-225	+5% $-132	+10% $-39
Rate	-1.0pp $-64	-0.5pp $-144	base $-225	+0.5pp $-308	+1.0pp $-393

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $80,248
• Closing costs: $9,630
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3905 Giorgio Dr Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1707	$2,050	$1.20	4d	1	0.25mi
3412 Costello Cir Winter Haven, FL	5.0	3.0	2540	$2,500	$0.98	24d	1	0.27mi
3511 Costello Cir Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	2234	$2,100	$0.94	24d	1	0.38mi
6472 Domizio Dr Winter Haven, FL	5.0	2.5	2112	$2,300	$1.09	24d	1	0.40mi
6428 Domizio Dr Winter Haven, FL	5.0	2.5	2112	$2,200	$1.04	24d	1	0.43mi
2772 San Marco Way Winter Haven, FL	4.0	3.0	1988	$2,200	$1.11	24d	1	0.45mi
2116 Cartgate Ln Winter Haven, FL	4.0	3.0	2217	$2,500	$1.13	24d	1	0.48mi
2107 Cartgate Ln Winter Haven, FL	4.0	3.0	2217	$2,600	$1.17	24d	1	0.49mi
4442 Rapallo Ave Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1607	$1,895	$1.18	24d	1	0.49mi
6204 Botticella Blvd Winter Haven, FL	5.0	2.5	2280	$2,350	$1.03	4d	1	0.50mi
4506 Rapallo Ave Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1754	$1,899	$1.08	24d	1	0.51mi
1310 Benevento Dr Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1964	$2,500	$1.27	24d	1	0.68mi
1343 Benevento Dr Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1849	$2,000	$1.08	15d	1	0.68mi
632 Vittorio Dr Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1597	$1,895	$1.19	24d	1	0.74mi
397 Corso Loop Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1851	$2,395	$1.29	4d	1	0.92mi
850 Terranova Rd Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1770	$2,176	$1.23	4d	1	1.16mi
810 Terranova Rd Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	2056	$1,900	$0.92	24d	1	1.20mi
554 Reddicks Cir Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	2000	$2,000	$1.00	11d	1	1.29mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $17 · $204/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-03-17
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-16
   listed $320,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,036 · $253/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,036 · $253/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,281
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,980
• − Property taxes: −$3,036
• − Insurance: −$1,605
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,263
• − Management: −$2,263
• − HOA: −$204
• − Depreciation: −$9,338
• Taxable loss: −$8,407
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,018
• After-tax cash flow: $-685/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Winter Haven

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #291
• US rank: #4898

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winter Haven, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 121,740
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 37,561
• Household income: $70,443
• Rent vs Own: 25.7% rent · 74.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 949.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 14% Two or more races 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Hispanic 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 12% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -134.69%
• Current HPI: 260.1421
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.90%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-17 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-16 Listed $320,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid