488 County Road 1600 · Laguna Park, TX 76634

$175,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,399 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 133 Days on market

Built 1965 0.84 ac lot $73/sqft · 48% below area Est $338k · 48% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lake Whitney access • 0.83-acre lot • 4 bedrooms + workshop Set on approximately 0.836 acres just minutes from Lake Whitney, this 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home offers space, flexibility, and a quiet country setting. The 2,399 sq ft layout includes multiple living areas suitable for everyday living or gatherings. Vinyl plank flooring runs through much of the home, providing durability and easy maintenance. The property includes a detached, insulated workshop with HVAC—ideal for hobbies, storage, or workspace needs. Community access to a boat dock offers convenient entry to Lake Whitney for boating and outdoor recreation. Spacious lot provides room to spread out, garden, or enjoy the outdoors. Replacement flooring for stairs has already been purchased and will convey with the home. Located within Meridian ISD and with access to nearby highways, this property combines rural setting with proximity to lake amenities and surrounding towns.

Key facts

• Vinyl plank flooring
• 0.84 acre lot
• 2 parking spots

Tags

• COUNTRY HOME NEAR LAKE WHITNEY
• VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• LARGE YARD WITH MATURE TREES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $133 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $172k (1.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $154k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 2.0% in Laguna Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#531 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Meridian ISD (rural): math 29% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #584 of 826 in TX (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 102 active listings in the ZIP; 15 units permitted in Bosque County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bosque County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 133 days — a 12% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $55k (24%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 133 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.26%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $338,329
• List price: $175,000
• Delta: -48.28%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
142 County Road 1603	0.05mi	3/1.5 (-1)	2,312 (-4%)	12mo	$115,000	$50	72
269 County Road 1605	0.34mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,242 (-6%)	21mo	$420,000	$187	50
246 Private Road 1610	0.69mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,365 (-1%)	11mo	$849,900	$359	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-19,847
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-6,220
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76634

• Home prices YoY: -15.6%
• Active inventory: 102
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,723 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$238 /mo · $2,851/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$362
• Net cashflow: $133

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,555

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 133 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 132 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 131 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 130 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 129 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 128 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   pricedays on market $175,000 Active 127 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $195,000 Active 124 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $195,000 Active 123 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $195,000 Active 122 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $195,000 Active 121 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $195,000 Active 118 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $195,000 Active 117 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $195,000 Active 116 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $195,000 Active 115 DOM
16. 2026-04-03
    price $215,000 970-char remark

    Show marketing remark (970 chars)

    Lake Whitney access • 0.83-acre lot • 4 bedrooms + workshop Set on approximately 0.836 acres just minutes from Lake Whitney, this 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home offers space, flexibility, and a quiet country setting. The 2,399 sq ft layout includes multiple living areas suitable for everyday living or gatherings. Vinyl plank flooring runs through much of the home, providing durability and easy maintenance. The property includes a detached, insulated workshop with HVAC—ideal for hobbies, storage, or workspace needs. Community access to a boat dock offers convenient entry to Lake Whitney for boating and outdoor recreation. Spacious lot provides room to spread out, garden, or enjoy the outdoors. Replacement flooring for stairs has already been purchased and will convey with the home. Located within Meridian ISD and with access to nearby highways, this property combines rural setting with proximity to lake amenities and surrounding towns.

17. 2026-02-04
    historical
18. 2026-02-03
    listed $230,000 Active 970-char remark

    Show marketing remark (970 chars)

    Lake Whitney access • 0.83-acre lot • 4 bedrooms + workshop Set on approximately 0.836 acres just minutes from Lake Whitney, this 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home offers space, flexibility, and a quiet country setting. The 2,399 sq ft layout includes multiple living areas suitable for everyday living or gatherings. Vinyl plank flooring runs through much of the home, providing durability and easy maintenance. The property includes a detached, insulated workshop with HVAC—ideal for hobbies, storage, or workspace needs. Community access to a boat dock offers convenient entry to Lake Whitney for boating and outdoor recreation. Spacious lot provides room to spread out, garden, or enjoy the outdoors. Replacement flooring for stairs has already been purchased and will convey with the home. Located within Meridian ISD and with access to nearby highways, this property combines rural setting with proximity to lake amenities and surrounding towns.

19. 2025-12-31
    price $230,000
20. 2025-10-30
    listed $240,000 Active
21. 2023-08-03
    soldstatus
22. 2023-08-02
    soldstatus Closed
23. 2023-06-26
    status Pending
24. 2023-06-19
    historical Active Option Contract
25. 2023-06-19
    status Active
26. 2023-06-14
    price $175,000
27. 2023-06-13
    listed $1,750,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,851 · $238/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,202 · $267/mo
• Expected delta: +$351/yr (+$29/mo · 12.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,677
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$2,851
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,654
• − Management: −$1,654
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$1,251
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$300
• After-tax cash flow: $1,897/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Meridian ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830300
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $42,820
• Composite: 27.16/100
• National rank: #7028
• State rank: #584 of 826 in TX

Livability — Laguna Park

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #531
• US rank: #10384

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,483

Population outlook (Bosque County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,405 people
• By 2030: 16,953 · -2.6%
• By 2040: 16,014 · -8.0%
• By 2050: 15,116 · -13.2%
• By 2075: 13,468 · -22.6%
• By 2100: 11,147 · -36.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 15% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Serbian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bosque

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+67.3) · D 15.9% · R 83.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.5pp toward R · 2008: -51.9pp · 2024: -67.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+67.3 2020: R+64.7 2016: R+64.7 2012: R+61.4 2008: R+51.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -39.63%
• Current HPI: 214.2664
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-87.7% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $215,000 NTREIS
• 2026-02-04 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-02-03 Listed $230,000 NTREIS
• 2025-12-31 Price Changed $230,000 NTREIS
• 2025-10-30 Listed $240,000 NTREIS
• 2023-08-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-08-02 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2023-06-26 Pending — NTREIS
• 2023-06-19 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2023-06-19 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2023-06-14 Price Changed $175,000 NTREIS
• 2023-06-13 Listed $1,750,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,851 · +28.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.