2936 Elmwood Ave · Lake Isabella, CA 93240

$99,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 600 sqft · Manufactured public records · 545 Days on market

Built 1968 8,276 sqft lot $165/sqft · 17% above area Est $141k · 30% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.8/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Now offered at $99,000! Charming Lake Isabella retreat on a corner lot just 1 mile from the lake. Updated 1968 mobile home with a 2021 remodel and new roof. Spacious, fully fenced yard with beautiful shade trees. Detached 2-car garage with plumbing-ready bathroom-ideal for storage, a workshop, or future expansion. Located in a quiet, established neighborhood close to fishing, boating, and year-round recreation. Perfect as a rental, vacation home, or peaceful getaway. Incredible value at this price!

Key facts

• Breathtaking views
• Corner lot
• New roof

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• EASY ACCESS TO FISHING
• BREATHTAKING VIEWS
• NEW ROOF
• DETACHED GARAGE
• PLUMBING-READY BATHROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $566 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.1% vs local median 7.4% in Lake Isabella — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#999 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A, cost of living B+; Watch: crime C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Kernville Union Elementary (rural): math 20% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #1,128 of 1,400 in CA (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 135 active listings in the ZIP; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($684 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (5.5% local appreciation)).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (5.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 545 days — a 12% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $41k (29%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $28k; list at $99k implies a 254% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 545 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.49%
• DSCR: 2.09
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $141,000
• List price: $99,000
• Delta: -29.79%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4020 Helen St	0.21mi	2/1.0 (-1)	672 (+12%)	8mo	$44,500	$66	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.55% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 35.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.24×
• Total profit: $61,967
• Equity at exit: $59,443

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.58×
• Total profit: $154,784
• Equity at exit: $105,466

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93240

• Home prices YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,491 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$52 /mo · $623/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$313
• Net cashflow: $566

Break-even live

Break-even rent $775

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 57%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $622	-5% $594	+0% $566	+5% $538	+10% $510
Rent	-10% $448	-5% $507	+0% $566	+5% $625	+10% $684
Rate	-1.0pp $616	-0.5pp $591	base $566	+0.5pp $540	+1.0pp $514

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 545 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,000 Active 544 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,000 Active 543 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 542 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,000 Active 540 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,000 Active 539 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,000 Active 537 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,000 Active 536 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,000 Active 535 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,000 Active 534 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $99,000 Active 531 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,000 Active 530 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,000 Active 529 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,000 Active 528 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,000 Active 527 DOM
16. 2025-12-12
    price $99,000 503-char remark

    Show marketing remark (503 chars)

    Now offered at $99,000! Charming Lake Isabella retreat on a corner lot just 1 mile from the lake. Updated 1968 mobile home with a 2021 remodel and new roof. Spacious, fully fenced yard with beautiful shade trees. Detached 2-car garage with plumbing-ready bathroom-ideal for storage, a workshop, or future expansion. Located in a quiet, established neighborhood close to fishing, boating, and year-round recreation. Perfect as a rental, vacation home, or peaceful getaway. Incredible value at this price!

17. 2024-12-20
    listed $139,900 Active 503-char remark

    Show marketing remark (503 chars)

    Now offered at $99,000! Charming Lake Isabella retreat on a corner lot just 1 mile from the lake. Updated 1968 mobile home with a 2021 remodel and new roof. Spacious, fully fenced yard with beautiful shade trees. Detached 2-car garage with plumbing-ready bathroom-ideal for storage, a workshop, or future expansion. Located in a quiet, established neighborhood close to fishing, boating, and year-round recreation. Perfect as a rental, vacation home, or peaceful getaway. Incredible value at this price!

18. 2024-07-17
    price $139,900
19. 2024-06-15
    price $149,000
20. 2024-05-10
    price $159,900
21. 2024-03-22
    price $249,000
22. 2024-01-18
    price $229,000
23. 2023-11-10
    status Active
24. 2023-07-21
    listed $200,000 Active
25. 2023-06-10
    price $186,500
26. 2023-05-24
    listed $189,000 Active
27. 2014-05-30
    soldstatus $28,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $623 · $52/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $752 · $63/mo
• Expected delta: +$130/yr (+$11/mo · 20.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥94°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 24 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,894
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$623
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,432
• − Management: −$1,432
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $5,488
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,317
• After-tax cash flow: $5,471/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kernville Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0619590
• Math proficiency: 20% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $29,896
• Composite: 25.91/100
• National rank: #12766
• State rank: #1128 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Lake Isabella

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #999
• US rank: #24814

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Isabella, CA
• City population: 5,622
• Population (ZIP): 5,622

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 5% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Portuguese 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Korean 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.55%
• Current HPI: 341.2481
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+253.6% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-12 Price Changed $99,000 SSMLS
• 2024-12-20 Listed $139,900 SSMLS
• 2024-07-17 Price Changed $139,900 SSMLS
• 2024-06-15 Price Changed $149,000 SSMLS
• 2024-05-10 Price Changed $159,900 SSMLS
• 2024-03-22 Price Changed $249,000 SSMLS
• 2024-01-18 Price Changed $229,000 SSMLS
• 2023-11-10 Relisted — SSMLS
• 2023-07-21 Listed $200,000 SSMLS
• 2023-06-10 Price Changed $186,500 SSMLS
• 2023-05-24 Listed $189,000 SSMLS
• 2014-05-30 Sold (Public Records) $28,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $623 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.