30 Mellor Ln · Bella Vista, AR 72715

$250,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1977 1,306 sqft lot Est $319k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Three bedroom, two bath townhome is an end unit. Two living areas for family or guests. Full bath on each level. Fresh paint in and out. Wooded view from large deck. New kitchen appliances. Enjoy all of the nearby Bella Vista recreational amenities. Townhome living allows you to come and go without the worry of yard work. Great for first time homebuyers, downsizers, or as an investment property.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Tiled backsplash
• Walk-in shower

Tags

• RENOVATED END-UNIT TOWNHOUSE
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• TILED BACKSPLASH
• WALK-IN SHOWER
• TUB SHOWER COMBO
• FULL WALKOUT BASEMENT

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association (Bella Vista POA and BV Townhouse Association) with monthly fees; Association covers structure maintenance and security; Community amenities include biking, clubhouse, fitness center, golf, playground, park, pool, and trails/paths

Exterior

• Parking: Concrete driveway
• Security: Smoke detector(s); Association-provided security
• Utilities: Electricity available; Public water
• Home design: Single-story home; Faces southeast; Residential property
• Construction: Cedar exterior; Asphalt shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built 25+ years ago
• Exterior features: Concrete driveway; Deck; Community pool; Smoke detector(s); City lot near park in a subdivision; Public paved road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Electric range; Disposal; Plumbed for ice maker
• Bedrooms: Includes a living room; Finished basement with crawl space
• Flooring: Luxury vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Heat pump; Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Programmable thermostat; Quartz counters; Walk-in closet(s); Multiple living areas; Double pane vinyl windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $99 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $214k (14.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $214k (14.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.6% in Bella Vista — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#111 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, schools A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Bentonville School District (urban): math 59% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #3 of 238 in AR (top 1%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 827 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,359 units permitted in Benton County in 2024 (402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($82k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Benton County population projected at +56% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $71k; list at $250k implies a 250% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $213,882 (14.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.70%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $319,488
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11 Sheneman Dr	0.25mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,511 (-2%)	9mo	$315,000	$208	73
76 Overton Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,550 (+1%)	3mo	$275,000	$177	62
68 Hope Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,416 (-8%)	6mo	$288,000	$203	57
11 Penwith Ln	0.63mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,607 (+5%)	2mo	$350,000	$218	56
6 Penwith Ln	0.62mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,452 (-6%)	5mo	$350,200	$241	53
4 Billingsley Ln	0.71mi	3/3.0	1,416 (-8%)	1mo	$290,000	$205	49
29 Penzance Dr	0.60mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,436 (-6%)	9mo	$305,000	$212	49
12 Arnold Ln	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,416 (-8%)	8mo	$327,000	$231	49
2 Arnold Ln	0.59mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-12%)	0mo	$249,900	$186	47
5 Mawnan Cir	0.60mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,673 (+9%)	6mo	$379,950	$227	45
52 Chaucer Dr	0.72mi	2/3.0 (-1)	1,650 (+7%)	0mo	$320,000	$194	45
24 Billingsley Dr	0.64mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-12%)	0mo	$270,000	$201	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-34,251
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-21,910
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72715

• Home prices YoY: -6.6%
• Active inventory: 827
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,139 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$175 /mo · $2,105/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$449
• Net cashflow: $99

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,013

Max offer price $250,000

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20 Annette Ln Bella Vista, AR	3.0	2.0	1520	$1,650	$1.09	14d	1	0.12mi
27 Shropshire Dr Bella Vista, AR	3.0	3.0	1822	$2,250	$1.23	14d	1	0.82mi
1 Dent Ln Bella Vista, AR	4.0	2.0	2215	$2,850	$1.29	14d	1	1.17mi
26 Purfleet Dr Bella Vista, AR	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,575	$1.23	14d	1	1.23mi
4 Tilbury Ln Bella Vista, AR	3.0	2.5	1742	$1,850	$1.06	14d	1	1.23mi
6 Erith Ln Unit 1512836P Bella Vista, AR	4.0	2.0	2077	$5,027	$2.42	14d	1	1.30mi
9 Purfleet Dr Unit 1366492P Bella Vista, AR	3.0	2.0	1625	$3,392	$2.09	14d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-19
   remarks 693-char remark
2. 2026-06-19
   listed $250,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,105 · $175/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,105 · $175/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,666
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$2,105
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,053
• − Management: −$2,053
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$3,072
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$737
• After-tax cash flow: $1,926/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bentonville School District
• NCES district ID: 0503060
• Math proficiency: 59% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $66,721
• Composite: 51.85/100
• National rank: #1661
• State rank: #3 of 238 in AR

Livability — Bella Vista

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #111
• US rank: #11129

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bella Vista, AR
• County: Benton County · 259,241 people
• City population: 31,638
• Metro: Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR
• Population (ZIP): 17,288
• Household income: $82,447
• Rent vs Own: 11.5% rent · 88.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 107.0

Population outlook (Benton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 318,683 people
• By 2030: 353,481 · +10.9%
• By 2040: 425,280 · +33.4%
• By 2050: 497,239 · +56.0%
• By 2075: 662,114 · +107.8%
• By 2100: 776,431 · +143.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 4% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Benton

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.0) · D 35.2% · R 62.1% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.6pp toward D · 2008: -36.5pp · 2024: -27.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.0 2020: R+26.4 2016: R+34.9 2012: R+40.4 2008: R+36.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -21.53%
• Current HPI: 304.946
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+316.7% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Listed $250,000 NWARMLS
• 2025-11-08 Rental Removed $1,295 APPFOLIO
• 2025-10-18 Price Changed $1,295 APPFOLIO
• 2025-10-08 Price Changed $1,475 APPFOLIO
• 2025-09-30 Price Changed $1,495 APPFOLIO
• 2025-09-23 Price Changed $1,525 APPFOLIO
• 2025-09-18 Price Changed $1,550 APPFOLIO
• 2025-09-10 Price Changed $1,575 APPFOLIO
• 2025-07-10 Listed for Rent $1,600 APPFOLIO
• 2024-09-05 Rental Removed $1,495 APPFOLIO
• 2024-08-21 Price Changed $1,495 APPFOLIO
• 2024-08-10 Listed for Rent $1,575 APPFOLIO
• 2024-03-14 Sold (Public Records) $71,376 Public Records
• 2017-10-04 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 2017-10-02 Sold (MLS) $75,000 NWARMLS
• 2017-08-09 Listed $75,000 NWARMLS
• 2015-09-17 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2015-09-14 Sold (MLS) $65,000 NWARMLS
• 2015-03-12 Listed $69,000 NWARMLS
• 1990-08-24 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,105 · +345.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.