RC Somerville Plan · Todd Mission, TX 77316

$226,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,402 sqft · SingleFamily · 330 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Explore Magnolia Springs, an exceptional Rausch Coleman Homes community in the heart of Montgomery, TX. Surrounded by the scenic beauty of Montgomery, residents enjoy a blend of nature and community. Explore the charm of the area, from the historic downtown district to outdoor adventures on Lake Conroe. Our new homes for sale in Montgomery, TX, reflect a commitment to quality and craftsmanship, ensuring modern living amidst timeless allure. Rausch Coleman Homes invites you to embrace a lifestyle where vibrant local culture meets comfortable living.

Key facts

• Lake conroe
• 2 garage spots
• Listed 330 days

Tags

• MAGNOLIA SPRINGS COMMUNITY
• HISTORIC DOWNTOWN DISTRICT
• LAKE CONROE

🏗️ New construction. The $226,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $239,778.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $227k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-86 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (12.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $199k (12.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 2.9% in Todd Mission — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#549 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Magnolia El (math 22% / reading 28%, grade F, #3,013 of 4,322 statewide, top 70%, 649 students, 64% FRL); Magnolia J H (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #805 of 1,662 statewide, top 50%, 1,103 students, 57% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 2300 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 330 days — a 12% lower offer ($200k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $198,865 (12.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 330 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.54%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $239,778
• List price: $226,990
• Delta: -5.33%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
25296 Leather Leaf Ct	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,409 (+0%)	2mo	$239,990	$170	93
25284 Leather Leaf Ct	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,409 (+0%)	2mo	$241,990	$172	92
25288 Leather Leaf Ct	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,418 (+1%)	3mo	$245,990	$173	91
25259 Leather Leaf Ct	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,388 (-1%)	2mo	$225,000	$162	89
25247 Leather Leaf Ct	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,367 (-2%)	2mo	$225,000	$165	86
25292 Leather Leaf Ct	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,273 (-9%)	1mo	$232,990	$183	79
25316 Leather Leaf Ct	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,273 (-9%)	2mo	$232,990	$183	79
25235 Leather Leaf Ct	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,488 (+6%)	2mo	$228,000	$153	79
25248 Leather Leaf Ct	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,238 (-12%)	2mo	$220,000	$178	71
25561 Blossom Ct	0.00mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,607 (+15%)	1mo	$254,990	$159	70
25272 Leather Leaf Ct	0.13mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,607 (+15%)	1mo	$254,990	$159	64
25295 Leather Leaf Ct	0.13mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,607 (+15%)	3mo	$254,990	$159	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-49,374
• Equity at exit: $35,752

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-69,679
• Equity at exit: $20,732

Cash invested: $67,138 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77316

• Home prices YoY: -10.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 2300
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,989 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,257
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$300 /mo · $3,597/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$418
• Net cashflow: $-86

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,098

Max offer price $227,331

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $80	-5% $-3	+0% $-86	+5% $-169	+10% $-252
Rent	-10% $-243	-5% $-165	+0% $-86	+5% $-7	+10% $71
Rate	-1.0pp $35	-0.5pp $-25	base $-86	+0.5pp $-148	+1.0pp $-211

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,945
• Closing costs: $7,193
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
25553 Blossom Ct Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1249	$1,690	$1.35	4d	1	0.02mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $226,990 Active 330 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $226,990 Active 327 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $226,990 Active 326 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $226,990 Active 325 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $226,990 Active 324 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $226,990 Active 322 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $226,990 Active 318 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $226,990 Active 317 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $226,990 Active 316 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $226,990 Active 313 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $226,990 Active 312 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $226,990 Active 311 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $226,990 Active 310 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $226,990 Active 309 DOM
15. 2025-07-26
    listed $226,990 Active 554-char remark

    Show marketing remark (554 chars)

    Explore Magnolia Springs, an exceptional Rausch Coleman Homes community in the heart of Montgomery, TX. Surrounded by the scenic beauty of Montgomery, residents enjoy a blend of nature and community. Explore the charm of the area, from the historic downtown district to outdoor adventures on Lake Conroe. Our new homes for sale in Montgomery, TX, reflect a commitment to quality and craftsmanship, ensuring modern living amidst timeless allure. Rausch Coleman Homes invites you to embrace a lifestyle where vibrant local culture meets comfortable living.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,864
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,431
• − Property taxes: −$3,597
• − Insurance: −$1,199
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,909
• − Management: −$1,909
• − Depreciation: −$6,975
• Taxable loss: −$5,157
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,238
• After-tax cash flow: $205/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It is move-in ready and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint and some landscaping to further enhance its curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers
• Both Interior cleaning — A clean interior can make the home more appealing to potential buyers and renters

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers ↑
• Both Interior cleaning — A clean interior can make the home more appealing to potential buyers and renters ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Todd Mission

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #549
• US rank: #10627

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,694
• Household income: $124,055
• Rent vs Own: 10.9% rent · 89.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 273.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.44%
• Current HPI: 262.6973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.40%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-07-26 Listed $226,990 Zillow