1406 Ash St · Keokuk, IA 52632

$30,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 25 Days on market

Built 2001 0.42 ac lot Est $27k · 12% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +2.3/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Built in 2001, this unique 1 bed, 1 bath shell home is a blank canvas full of potential! The hard work has already been started with the home framed out and ready for the next owner to bring their vision to life. Sitting on almost half an acre, this property offers a peaceful setting with very few nearby neighbors, giving it that country living feel while still being conveniently located in town. Whether you're dreaming of a cozy personal residence, weekend getaway, investment property, or custom finish project, the possibilities are endless. A rare opportunity to create exactly what you want from the ground up!

Key facts

• 0.42 acre lot
• Built 2001
• Listed 25 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel parking area
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: One and one-half story single-family home; Wood siding
• Construction: Wood siding exterior
• Exterior features: 0.42-acre lot (approximately 18,089 sq ft); Gravel parking

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Wood stove heating; No cooling system
• Interior features: Wood stove heating

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $30k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $472 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($942 rent vs $30k).
• Recommended offer: $30k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 27.8% vs local median 8.2% in Keokuk — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#166 in IA, #3,002 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F, employment F.
• Keokuk Community School District (town): math 48% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #282 of 289 in IA (top 98%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 74 active listings in the ZIP; 15 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $207 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $900 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($30k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $29,550 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 27.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 76.98%
• DSCR: 4.43
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $26,880
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
116 S 9th St	0.69mi	2/2.5 (+1)	1,332 (-1%)	3mo	$20,000	$15	53
1701 S 7th St	0.35mi	2/1.0 (+1)	1,176 (-12%)	8mo	$15,000	$13	51
1423 Des Moines St	0.45mi	2/1.0 (+1)	1,241 (-8%)	16mo	$25,000	$20	48
1310 Bank St	0.54mi	2/1.0 (+1)	1,448 (+8%)	13mo	$57,500	$40	46
126 S 9th St	0.68mi	2/1.5 (+1)	1,232 (-8%)	22mo	$32,500	$26	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 66.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.01×
• Total profit: $25,281
• Equity at exit: $4,473

10-year hold

• IRR: 71.1%
• Equity multiple: 8.26×
• Total profit: $60,977
• Equity at exit: $2,594

Cash invested: $8,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Iowa: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; mostly landlord-friendly statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 52632

• Home prices YoY: -25.5%
• Active inventory: 74
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $942 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax from tax record: −$35 /mo · $424/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$198
• Net cashflow: $472

Break-even live

Break-even rent $344

Max offer price $30,000

Occupancy floor 45%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $489	-5% $481	+0% $472	+5% $464	+10% $455
Rent	-10% $398	-5% $435	+0% $472	+5% $510	+10% $547
Rate	-1.0pp $488	-0.5pp $480	base $472	+0.5pp $465	+1.0pp $457

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,500
• Closing costs: $900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $30,000 Active 25 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $30,000 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $30,000 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $30,000 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $30,000 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $30,000 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $30,000 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $30,000 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $30,000 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $30,000 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $30,000 Active 11 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $30,000 Active 8 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $30,000 Active 7 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $30,000 Active 6 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $30,000 Active 5 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $30,000 Active 4 DOM
17. 2026-05-26
    listed $30,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $424 · $35/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $448 · $37/mo
• Expected delta: +$24/yr (+$2/mo · 5.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,302
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,680
• − Property taxes: −$424
• − Insurance: −$948
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$904
• − Management: −$904
• − Depreciation: −$873
• Taxable income: $5,569
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,337
• After-tax cash flow: $4,333/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Keokuk Community School District
• NCES district ID: 1915630
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $36,973
• Composite: 42.35/100
• National rank: #3249
• State rank: #282 of 289 in IA

Livability — Keokuk

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #166
• US rank: #3002

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Keokuk, IA
• Population (ZIP): 11,904

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 33,813 people
• By 2030: 32,835 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 30,690 · -9.2%
• By 2050: 28,777 · -14.9%
• By 2075: 25,568 · -24.4%
• By 2100: 21,983 · -35.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.8) · D 35.0% · R 62.9% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -43.8pp toward R · 2008: 16.0pp · 2024: -27.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.8 2020: R+19.3 2016: R+16.1 2012: D+16.0 2008: D+16.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -41.80%
• Current HPI: 122.2866
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$16B
▸Retail / Convenience	1	$15B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $30,000 IAR

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $424 · +6.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.