1251 Guelbreth Ln #211 · Creve Coeur, MO 63146

$149,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 945 sqft · Condo public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1973

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.6/30.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great price for this bright, move-in ready ground level condo. All updated bathrooms with newer vanity and newer shower doors, newer kitchen appliances with granite top, newer flooring, newer paint and newer light fixtures. Access your patio from living room. Two carport spaces. The lower level boasts a card room, a private storage locker and a community laundry room. Minutes from restaurants, movies, schools, shopping and highways.

Key facts

• Creve coeur area
• Main-floor condo
• No-step entry

Tags

• MAIN-FLOOR CONDO
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• PRIVATE PATIO SPACE
• ASSIGNED PARKING SPACE
• NO-STEP ENTRY
• CREVE COEUR AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Doral Manor Condo association

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned covered parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected (Ameren)
• Home design: Residential condominium; Two levels
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding construction
• Exterior features: Patio; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Stainless steel appliances; Dishwasher; Microwave; Electric oven; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on the main level)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Pantry; Storage
• Laundry & utility: Common area laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-316 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $140k (6.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $140k (6.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.8% vs local median 2.7% in Creve Coeur — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#16 in MO, #1,519 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, commute A-; Watch: amenities C-, cost of living F.
• Pattonville R-III (suburban): math 32% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #147 of 324 in MO (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Willow Brook Elem. (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #413 of 1,115 statewide, top 42%, 470 students, 40% FRL); Pattonville Sr. High (math 33% / reading 64%, grade D, #147 of 521 statewide, top 29%, 1,893 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools at 40% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 173 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 58% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $61k; list at $150k implies a 146% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 34% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $139,924 (6.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.03%
• DSCR: 0.60
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.37×
• Total profit: $57,675
• Equity at exit: $135,042

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.26×
• Total profit: $178,838
• Equity at exit: $291,223

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63146

• Home prices YoY: 4.9%
• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 173
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,399 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$94 /mo · $1,125/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA est. from 4 same-building comps: −$479
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$294
• Net cashflow: $-316

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,799

Max offer price $94,089

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-231	-5% $-274	+0% $-316	+5% $-358	+10% $-401
Rent	-10% $-426	-5% $-371	+0% $-316	+5% $-261	+10% $-205
Rate	-1.0pp $-240	-0.5pp $-278	base $-316	+0.5pp $-355	+1.0pp $-394

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10304 Oxford Hill Dr St. Louis, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	925	$1,489	$1.61	3d	47	0.23mi
10368 Forest Brook Ln Unit F Saint Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	1053	$1,350	$1.28	44d	1	0.25mi
10364 Forest Brook Ln Saint Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	1053	$1,400	$1.33	44d	1	0.26mi
10352 Forest Brook Ln Unit G Saint Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	600	$1,400	$2.33	44d	1	0.29mi
1434 Willow Brook Cove Ct St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.5	910	$1,395	$1.53	44d	1	0.32mi
1380 Willow Brook Cove Ct St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.5	910	$1,550	$1.70	15d	1	0.33mi
10427 Briarbend Dr #8 Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.5	858	$1,350	$1.57	24d	1	0.42mi
10900 Oak Forest Pkwy Dr St. Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	800	$1,600	$2.00	4d	6	0.53mi
9814 Greenery Ln Unit D Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	875	$1,250	$1.43	24d	1	0.89mi
9814 Greenery Ln Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	900	$1,475	$1.64	44d	1	0.89mi
9882 Greenery Ln Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	900	$1,400	$1.56	44d	1	0.89mi
9826 Greenery Ln Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	900	$1,275	$1.42	44d	1	0.89mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $149,900 Active 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,900 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,900 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,900 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,900 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,900 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,900 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   remarks 693-char remark
9. 2026-06-10
   listed $149,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,125 · $94/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,454 · $121/mo
• Expected delta: +$329/yr (+$27/mo · 29.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,791
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$1,125
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,343
• − Management: −$1,343
• − HOA: −$5,748
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable loss: −$6,276
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,506
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,285/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pattonville R-III
• NCES district ID: 2923700
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $50,786
• Composite: 33.69/100
• National rank: #5383
• State rank: #147 of 324 in MO

Livability — Creve Coeur

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #1519

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A- Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 20,932
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 30,678
• Household income: $84,756
• Rent vs Own: 42.5% rent · 57.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1156.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Asian 17% Black 13% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 3% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 19% · China, South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 7% Other Indo-European 4% Chinese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 33.10%
• Current HPI: 711.49
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.96%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+134.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $149,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-23 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-29 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-12-01 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-11-10 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-23 Price Changed $150,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-18 Listed $160,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-06-17 Sold (Public Records) $61,000 Public Records
• 2003-01-14 Sold (Public Records) $63,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2022): $1,125 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.