211 Kentucky Trl · Presidential Lakes Estates, NJ 08015

$240,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1956 0.44 ac lot $250/sqft · 21% below area Est $304k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.0/30.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Opportunity knocks! This 3-bedroom, 1-bath rancher in Browns Mills offers great potential for a buyer willing to put in some sweat equity. Nestled on a wooded lot, you’ll enjoy a peaceful setting with frequent visits from deer and birds. Key updates include a newer septic system (About 2013), along with gas heat and central air approximately 10 years old. The home features an eat-in kitchen, a full basement for storage or future finishing, a 3-season room overlooking the backyard, and a driveway that accommodates up to 4 cars. This property is being sold strictly AS-IS. The seller may leave some remaining contents in the home. Buyer is responsible for all inspections, certifications, and municipal requirements. Bring your vision and make this home your own!

Key facts

• 0.44 acre lot
• Built 1956
• Listed 18 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-102 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $222k (7.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (12.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $210k (12.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#380 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: cost of living D, amenities F, commute F.
• Pemberton Township School District (rural): math 12% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #382 of 472 in NJ (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Pemberton Township High School (math 13% / reading 45%, grade F, #298 of 399 statewide, top 75%, 1,057 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools average 56% FRL vs 37% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 117 active listings in the ZIP; 2,161 units permitted in Burlington County in 2024 (988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Burlington County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($236k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask is 46% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $153k; list at $240k implies a 57% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 75% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $209,914 (12.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.82%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $304,181
• List price: $240,000
• Delta: -21.10%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
315 W Virginia Rd	0.22mi	3/1.0	1,004 (+5%)	2mo	$305,000	$304	80
515 N Carolina Trl	0.45mi	3/1.0	960 (0%)	10mo	$305,000	$318	71
515 New Jersey Rd	0.39mi	3/1.0	1,002 (+4%)	6mo	$320,000	$319	70
1203 Connecticut Rd	0.36mi	3/1.0	1,004 (+5%)	8mo	$296,000	$295	69
323 North Carolina Trl	0.28mi	3/1.0	1,004 (+5%)	18mo	$235,000	$234	64
510 W Virginia Rd	0.41mi	3/1.0	1,004 (+5%)	12mo	$260,000	$259	63
123 New Jersey Rd	0.34mi	3/1.0	1,032 (+8%)	21mo	$300,000	$291	54
135 New Jersey Rd	0.29mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,050 (+9%)	16mo	$300,000	$286	51
6 Maine Ter	0.47mi	3/1.0	1,056 (+10%)	23mo	$300,000	$284	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-45,276
• Equity at exit: $35,785

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-47,387
• Equity at exit: $20,751

Cash invested: $67,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08015

• Home prices YoY: -23.1%
• Active inventory: 117
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,099 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax from tax record: −$401 /mo · $4,818/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$441
• Net cashflow: $-102

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,228

Max offer price $222,027

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $34	-5% $-34	+0% $-102	+5% $-170	+10% $-238
Rent	-10% $-268	-5% $-185	+0% $-102	+5% $-19	+10% $64
Rate	-1.0pp $19	-0.5pp $-41	base $-102	+0.5pp $-164	+1.0pp $-227

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,000
• Closing costs: $7,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   status $240,000 Pending 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $240,000 Active Under Contract 18 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $240,000 Active 17 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $240,000 Active 16 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $240,000 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-04
   days on market $240,000 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $240,000 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $240,000 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $240,000 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $240,000 Active 8 DOM
11. 2026-04-08
    historical $240,000 774-char remark

    Show marketing remark (774 chars)

    Opportunity knocks! This 3-bedroom, 1-bath rancher in Browns Mills offers great potential for a buyer willing to put in some sweat equity. Nestled on a wooded lot, you’ll enjoy a peaceful setting with frequent visits from deer and birds. Key updates include a newer septic system (About 2013), along with gas heat and central air approximately 10 years old. The home features an eat-in kitchen, a full basement for storage or future finishing, a 3-season room overlooking the backyard, and a driveway that accommodates up to 4 cars. This property is being sold strictly AS-IS. The seller may leave some remaining contents in the home. Buyer is responsible for all inspections, certifications, and municipal requirements. Bring your vision and make this home your own!

12. 2013-06-10
    soldstatus $153,000
13. 2013-05-17
    soldstatus $153,000 Sold 1049-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1049 chars)

    "Home Sweet Home!" is what you'll say when you see this lovely rancher nestled between two wooded lots in this lake community. Wood laminate floors in Living Room & all walls are freshly painted in neutral colors. The charming Kitchen has a contemporary country feel featuring new ceramic counters, lighting, oven (2012) & range. Off the kitchen is an enclosed porch, perfect for listening to the birds sing with your morning coffee. Patio & extra large lot provide a friendly fenced-in back yard to run, play, & entertain with those summer BBQ's. Bedrooms have newer, neutral carpeting (2009). The bright & sunny Bath was fully updated in 2005 (including plumbing); bathtub was replaced with a shower stall for previous owner but can easily be converted back. Large, partially finished basement provides loads of space for an added Family Room, Laundry, work bench, & storage. Wood Stove, washer as-is. One-year Home Warranty included. Half a block to the Ball Field & a quick bike ride to the beach!

14. 2013-05-17
    soldstatus $153,000

    Show marketing remark (1049 chars)

    "Home Sweet Home!" is what you'll say when you see this lovely rancher nestled between two wooded lots in this lake community. Wood laminate floors in Living Room & all walls are freshly painted in neutral colors. The charming Kitchen has a contemporary country feel featuring new ceramic counters, lighting, oven (2012) & range. Off the kitchen is an enclosed porch, perfect for listening to the birds sing with your morning coffee. Patio & extra large lot provide a friendly fenced-in back yard to run, play, & entertain with those summer BBQ's. Bedrooms have newer, neutral carpeting (2009). The bright & sunny Bath was fully updated in 2005 (including plumbing); bathtub was replaced with a shower stall for previous owner but can easily be converted back. Large, partially finished basement provides loads of space for an added Family Room, Laundry, work bench, & storage. Wood Stove, washer as-is. One-year Home Warranty included. Half a block to the Ball Field & a quick bike ride to the beach!

15. 2013-05-14
    status Under Contract 1049-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1049 chars)

    "Home Sweet Home!" is what you'll say when you see this lovely rancher nestled between two wooded lots in this lake community. Wood laminate floors in Living Room & all walls are freshly painted in neutral colors. The charming Kitchen has a contemporary country feel featuring new ceramic counters, lighting, oven (2012) & range. Off the kitchen is an enclosed porch, perfect for listening to the birds sing with your morning coffee. Patio & extra large lot provide a friendly fenced-in back yard to run, play, & entertain with those summer BBQ's. Bedrooms have newer, neutral carpeting (2009). The bright & sunny Bath was fully updated in 2005 (including plumbing); bathtub was replaced with a shower stall for previous owner but can easily be converted back. Large, partially finished basement provides loads of space for an added Family Room, Laundry, work bench, & storage. Wood Stove, washer as-is. One-year Home Warranty included. Half a block to the Ball Field & a quick bike ride to the beach!

16. 2013-03-25
    historical
17. 2013-03-18
    price $155,000 1049-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1049 chars)

    "Home Sweet Home!" is what you'll say when you see this lovely rancher nestled between two wooded lots in this lake community. Wood laminate floors in Living Room & all walls are freshly painted in neutral colors. The charming Kitchen has a contemporary country feel featuring new ceramic counters, lighting, oven (2012) & range. Off the kitchen is an enclosed porch, perfect for listening to the birds sing with your morning coffee. Patio & extra large lot provide a friendly fenced-in back yard to run, play, & entertain with those summer BBQ's. Bedrooms have newer, neutral carpeting (2009). The bright & sunny Bath was fully updated in 2005 (including plumbing); bathtub was replaced with a shower stall for previous owner but can easily be converted back. Large, partially finished basement provides loads of space for an added Family Room, Laundry, work bench, & storage. Wood Stove, washer as-is. One-year Home Warranty included. Half a block to the Ball Field & a quick bike ride to the beach!

18. 2013-02-25
    listed $164,000 Active 1049-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1049 chars)

    "Home Sweet Home!" is what you'll say when you see this lovely rancher nestled between two wooded lots in this lake community. Wood laminate floors in Living Room & all walls are freshly painted in neutral colors. The charming Kitchen has a contemporary country feel featuring new ceramic counters, lighting, oven (2012) & range. Off the kitchen is an enclosed porch, perfect for listening to the birds sing with your morning coffee. Patio & extra large lot provide a friendly fenced-in back yard to run, play, & entertain with those summer BBQ's. Bedrooms have newer, neutral carpeting (2009). The bright & sunny Bath was fully updated in 2005 (including plumbing); bathtub was replaced with a shower stall for previous owner but can easily be converted back. Large, partially finished basement provides loads of space for an added Family Room, Laundry, work bench, & storage. Wood Stove, washer as-is. One-year Home Warranty included. Half a block to the Ball Field & a quick bike ride to the beach!

19. 2013-02-25
    listed $155,000

    Show marketing remark (1049 chars)

    "Home Sweet Home!" is what you'll say when you see this lovely rancher nestled between two wooded lots in this lake community. Wood laminate floors in Living Room & all walls are freshly painted in neutral colors. The charming Kitchen has a contemporary country feel featuring new ceramic counters, lighting, oven (2012) & range. Off the kitchen is an enclosed porch, perfect for listening to the birds sing with your morning coffee. Patio & extra large lot provide a friendly fenced-in back yard to run, play, & entertain with those summer BBQ's. Bedrooms have newer, neutral carpeting (2009). The bright & sunny Bath was fully updated in 2005 (including plumbing); bathtub was replaced with a shower stall for previous owner but can easily be converted back. Large, partially finished basement provides loads of space for an added Family Room, Laundry, work bench, & storage. Wood Stove, washer as-is. One-year Home Warranty included. Half a block to the Ball Field & a quick bike ride to the beach!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,818 · $401/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,397 · $450/mo
• Expected delta: +$579/yr (+$48/mo · 12.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 75% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,190
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,444
• − Property taxes: −$4,818
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,015
• − Management: −$2,015
• − Depreciation: −$6,982
• Taxable loss: −$5,284
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,268
• After-tax cash flow: $47/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pemberton Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3412810
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $60,951
• Composite: 23.0/100
• National rank: #7979
• State rank: #382 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Presidential Lakes Estates

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #380
• US rank: #12969

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Presidential Lakes Estates, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 19,143

Population outlook (Burlington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 453,425 people
• By 2030: 452,359 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 445,033 · -1.9%
• By 2050: 431,760 · -4.8%
• By 2075: 406,277 · -10.4%
• By 2100: 364,732 · -19.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 14% Black 13% Two or more races 10% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Burlington

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.6% · R 41.0% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.0pp toward R · 2008: 18.6pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+19.5 2016: D+14.8 2012: D+18.7 2008: D+18.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -98.84%
• Current HPI: 329.1731
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+54.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Coming Soon $240,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2013-06-10 Sold (Public Records) $153,000 Public Records
• 2013-05-17 Sold (MLS) $153,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2013-05-17 Sold (MLS) $153,000 TREND
• 2013-05-14 Pending — TREND
• 2013-03-25 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2013-03-18 Price Changed $155,000 TREND
• 2013-02-25 Listed $164,000 TREND
• 2013-02-25 Listed $155,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,818 · +6.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.