14511 Hickory Hill Ct #523 · Fort Myers, FL 33912

$170,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,243 sqft · Condo public records · 101 Days on market

Built 1992 $1410/mo HOA · 43% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.1/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Escape the cold and step into the vibrant, low-density lifestyle of Olde Hickory Golf & Country Club, Fort Myers' premier private bundled golf community. This impeccable 2nd-floor, turnkey furnished veranda unit is the perfect space to start your 2026 Florida life. Property Highlights: Move-In Ready: Turnkey furnished for a seamless transition. Panoramic Views: Enjoy breathtaking, two-sided screened lanai views of the lush, championship Ron Garl-designed golf course. Ideal Layout: Two comfortable bedrooms and two full bathrooms, separated by open living and dining areas, offer privacy and ample space. Active Lifestyle: Olde Hickory is an incredibly active community with no waitlist f

Key facts

• Fitness center
• Golf membership
• Turnkey furnished

Tags

• TURNKEY FURNISHED
• PANORAMIC VIEWS
• SCREENED LANAI
• GOLF MEMBERSHIP
• VIBRANT CLUBHOUSE
• FITNESS CENTER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $119 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $155k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 3.0% in Fort Myers — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#14 in FL, #383 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 305 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($103k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 101 days — a 9% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $79k (32%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $134k; 27% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 43% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,700 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 101 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.91% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.00%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.94% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-25,739
• Equity at exit: $25,348

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-35,250
• Equity at exit: $14,698

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33912

• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 305
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,246 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$73 /mo · $878/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$1,410
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$682
• Net cashflow: $119

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,096

Max offer price $170,000

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14290 Hickory Links Ct #1915 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1243	$4,000	$3.22	23d	1	0.19mi
14320 Bristol Bay Pl Unit 1546395P Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1097	$4,032	$3.68	16d	1	0.53mi
8500 Legends Blvd #305 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1096	$3,500	$3.19	23d	1	0.65mi
14571 Legends Blvd N Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1132	$2,175	$1.92	23d	2	0.73mi
14571 Legends Blvd N #106 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1095	$2,500	$2.28	3d	1	0.81mi
14122 Danpark Loop Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1209	$1,800	$1.49	1d	1	0.91mi
15091 Bagpipe Way #101 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1120	$7,000	$6.25	23d	1	1.37mi
15121 Bagpipe Way #202 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1110	$7,400	$6.67	10d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $1,410 · $16,920/yr
• Likely covers: cable
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-04-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-28
   price $170,000
3. 2026-03-20
   status Active
4. 2026-03-16
   status Pending
5. 2026-03-13
   status Active
6. 2026-03-11
   status Pending
7. 2026-03-02
   price $185,000
8. 2026-02-10
   price $215,000
9. 2026-01-03
   listed $249,000 Active
10. 2025-12-03
    historical
11. 2025-10-09
    listed $259,000 Active
12. 2002-08-22
    soldstatus $134,000
13. 1999-02-22
    soldstatus $110,000
14. 1992-12-30
    soldstatus $121,800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $878 · $73/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,411 · $118/mo
• Expected delta: +$533/yr (+$44/mo · 60.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,952
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$878
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,116
• − Management: −$3,116
• − HOA: −$16,920
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable loss: −$396
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$95
• After-tax cash flow: $1,522/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Fort Myers

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #14
• US rank: #383

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• City population: 278,598
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 19,533
• Household income: $103,194
• Rent vs Own: 12.7% rent · 87.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 292.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -180.73%
• Current HPI: 226.7102
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.94%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+39.6% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $170,000 FORTMLS
• 2026-03-20 Relisted — FORTMLS
• 2026-03-16 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2026-03-13 Relisted — FORTMLS
• 2026-03-11 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $185,000 FORTMLS
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $215,000 FORTMLS
• 2026-01-03 Listed $249,000 FORTMLS
• 2025-12-03 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2025-10-09 Listed $259,000 FORTMLS
• 2002-08-22 Sold (Public Records) $134,000 Public Records
• 1999-02-22 Sold (Public Records) $110,000 Public Records
• 1992-12-30 Sold (Public Records) $121,800 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $878 · +4.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.