215 Blackshear St · Tomball, TX 77375

$159,999

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 936 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 565 Days on market

Built 1953 6,730 sqft lot $171/sqft · 32% below area Est $235k · 32% under ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

TOMBALL AREA! Nice three-bedroom one bathroom home available in the Tomball area. This property features a nice kitchen with clean laminate countertops, vinyl plank flooring throughout most of the home, carpet in the bedrooms, a spacious backyard, and an extended front porch and ramp area. The home comes equipped with new interior paint, an upgraded bathroom and kitchen, and foundation repairs. If you're looking for a place to call home, this property is perfect for you and your family. You will love the quick access to TX-249 and the closeness to grocery stores, schools, parks, a nearby mall and plenty of dining options. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream home.

Key facts

• 6,730 sq ft lot
• Built 1953
• Listed 564 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $235 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 2.7% in Tomball — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#155 in TX, #4,239 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, schools B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Tomball ISD (suburban): math 66% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #25 of 826 in TX (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 666 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 565 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask is 9317% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,799 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 565 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.28%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $235,350
• List price: $159,999
• Delta: -32.02%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
306 N Chestnut St	0.62mi	2/1.0 (-1)	936 (0%)	13mo	$300,000	$321	56
910 Lovett Ct	0.41mi	3/1.0	1,048 (+12%)	7mo	$165,000	$157	56
304 Foster St	0.69mi	2/1.0 (-1)	920 (-2%)	13mo	$199,500	$217	49
910 Mainer Ln	0.52mi	3/1.0	1,048 (+12%)	14mo	$214,900	$205	44
204 Moore St	0.69mi	2/2.0 (-1)	950 (+2%)	21mo	$259,000	$273	39
930 Bolton Ct	0.61mi	3/1.0	1,048 (+12%)	16mo	$200,000	$191	39
115 Anna St	0.75mi	3/1.0	1,064 (+14%)	16mo	$285,000	$268	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-15,703
• Equity at exit: $23,856

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-12,665
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77375

• Home prices YoY: -33.9%
• Rents YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 666
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,602 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$125 /mo · $1,500/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $235

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,305

Max offer price $159,999

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $325	-5% $280	+0% $235	+5% $189	+10% $144
Rent	-10% $108	-5% $171	+0% $235	+5% $298	+10% $361
Rate	-1.0pp $315	-0.5pp $275	base $235	+0.5pp $193	+1.0pp $151

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1100 S Cherry St Unit 1137 Tomball, TX	2.0	2.0	967	$1,384	$1.43	0d	1	0.85mi
1100 S Cherry St Unit 2162 Tomball, TX	2.0	2.0	967	$1,400	$1.45	9d	1	0.85mi
1100 S Cherry St Unit 1157 Tomball, TX	2.0	2.0	967	$1,425	$1.47	45d	1	0.85mi
1106 S Cherry St Tomball, TX	2.0	2.0	967	$1,275	$1.32	45d	1	0.87mi
1203 Lovett St Tomball, TX	2.0	2.0	1070	$1,829	$1.71	20d	1	0.88mi
409 Commerce St Tomball, TX	3.0	2.0	1123	$1,700	$1.51	6d	1	0.96mi
333 W Hufsmith Rd Tomball, TX	2.0	2.0	954	$1,249	$1.31	45d	1	1.14mi
1000 Hicks St Unit 2047 Tomball, TX	2.0	2.0	921	$1,360	$1.48	12d	1	1.42mi
1000 Hicks St Unit 1057 Tomball, TX	2.0	2.0	921	$1,309	$1.42	0d	1	1.46mi
1000 Hicks St Unit 424 Tomball, TX	2.0	2.0	921	$1,325	$1.44	9d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $159,999 Active 565 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,999 Active 562 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,999 Active 561 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,999 Active 560 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,999 Active 559 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,999 Active 557 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,999 Active 556 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,999 Active 553 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,999 Active 552 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $159,999 Active 551 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $159,999 Active 548 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,999 Active 547 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,999 Active 546 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,999 Active 545 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,999 Active 544 DOM
16. 2026-02-19
    price $159,999 855-char remark

    Show marketing remark (855 chars)

    TOMBALL AREA! Nice three-bedroom one bathroom home available in the Tomball area. This property features a nice kitchen with clean laminate countertops, vinyl plank flooring throughout most of the home, carpet in the bedrooms, a spacious backyard, and an extended front porch and ramp area. The home comes equipped with new interior paint, an upgraded bathroom and kitchen, and foundation repairs. If you're looking for a place to call home, this property is perfect for you and your family. You will love the quick access to TX-249 and the closeness to grocery stores, schools, parks, a nearby mall and plenty of dining options. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream home.

17. 2025-07-08
    listed $1,699
18. 2025-06-26
    historical $1,699
19. 2025-05-22
    price $167,995 855-char remark

    Show marketing remark (855 chars)

    TOMBALL AREA! Nice three-bedroom one bathroom home available in the Tomball area. This property features a nice kitchen with clean laminate countertops, vinyl plank flooring throughout most of the home, carpet in the bedrooms, a spacious backyard, and an extended front porch and ramp area. The home comes equipped with new interior paint, an upgraded bathroom and kitchen, and foundation repairs. If you're looking for a place to call home, this property is perfect for you and your family. You will love the quick access to TX-249 and the closeness to grocery stores, schools, parks, a nearby mall and plenty of dining options. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream home.

20. 2024-12-05
    listed $1,699
21. 2024-12-05
    historical
22. 2024-12-03
    listed $177,995 Active 855-char remark

    Show marketing remark (855 chars)

    TOMBALL AREA! Nice three-bedroom one bathroom home available in the Tomball area. This property features a nice kitchen with clean laminate countertops, vinyl plank flooring throughout most of the home, carpet in the bedrooms, a spacious backyard, and an extended front porch and ramp area. The home comes equipped with new interior paint, an upgraded bathroom and kitchen, and foundation repairs. If you're looking for a place to call home, this property is perfect for you and your family. You will love the quick access to TX-249 and the closeness to grocery stores, schools, parks, a nearby mall and plenty of dining options. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream home.

23. 2024-12-03
    historical

    Show marketing remark (855 chars)

    TOMBALL AREA! Nice three-bedroom one bathroom home available in the Tomball area. This property features a nice kitchen with clean laminate countertops, vinyl plank flooring throughout most of the home, carpet in the bedrooms, a spacious backyard, and an extended front porch and ramp area. The home comes equipped with new interior paint, an upgraded bathroom and kitchen, and foundation repairs. If you're looking for a place to call home, this property is perfect for you and your family. You will love the quick access to TX-249 and the closeness to grocery stores, schools, parks, a nearby mall and plenty of dining options. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream home.

24. 2024-09-09
    price $177,995
25. 2023-11-16
    listed
26. 2023-10-12
    historical
27. 2022-09-01
    price $183,500
28. 2022-07-12
    listed $188,500 Active
29. 1989-07-12
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,500 · $125/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,928 · $244/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,428/yr (+$119/mo · 95.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,219
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$1,500
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,538
• − Management: −$1,538
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable income: $227
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$55
• After-tax cash flow: $2,760/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tomball ISD
• NCES district ID: 4842960
• Math proficiency: 66% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $86,552
• Composite: 58.32/100
• National rank: #1014
• State rank: #25 of 826 in TX

Livability — Tomball

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #155
• US rank: #4239

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tomball, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 113,991
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 72,311
• Household income: $102,488
• Rent vs Own: 30.2% rent · 69.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1803.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 13% Black 10% Asian 6% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Indo-European 2% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -119.81%
• Current HPI: 233.6155
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.49%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-15.1% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $159,999 HARMLS
• 2025-07-08 Listed for Rent $1,699 HARMLS
• 2025-06-26 Rental Removed $1,699 HARMLS
• 2025-05-22 Price Changed $167,995 HARMLS
• 2024-12-05 Listed for Rent $1,699 HARMLS
• 2024-12-05 Rental Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-12-03 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-12-03 Listed $177,995 HARMLS
• 2024-09-09 Price Changed $177,995 HARMLS
• 2023-11-16 Listed for Rent — HARMLS
• 2023-10-12 Rental Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-09-01 Price Changed $183,500 HARMLS
• 2022-07-12 Listed $188,500 HARMLS
• 1989-07-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+12.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,500 · +4.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.