14349 Tawny St · Splendora, TX 77372

$209,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,156 sqft · SingleFamily · 7 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 5,083 sqft lot $63/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Appreciation +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks

WONDERFUL NEW D. R. HORTON BUILT 1 STORY IN THE CANOPIES! Welcoming Exterior with Front Porch! Perfect Location! Fantastic Open Concept Interior Layout! Spacious Dining Area AND to Supersized Living Room Are Conveniently Located Next to the Island Kitchen for Functionality - Also Great for Entertaining! Privately Located Primary Suite Offers Great Bath with Large Shower & BIG Walk-In Closet! Generously Sized Secondary Bedrooms! Spacious Utility Room! Tankless Water Heater & Smart Home Package Included! Wonderful Community with Park - PLUS Easy Access to Highway 59! Hurry and Call Today!

Key facts

• Large shower
• Island kitchen
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT INTERIOR
• ISLAND KITCHEN
• PRIMARY SUITE
• LARGE SHOWER
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SPACIOUS UTILITY ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Ventilation for indoor air quality; Energy-efficient features: radiant attic barrier, efficient HVAC, efficient lighting, efficient water heater, energy-efficient windows
• HOA & community: Homeowners association managed by Vision Communities Management; Annual association fee of $750; Community pool

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage
• Security: Prewired for security; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Single-story entry (all main living on first floor)
• Construction: Built in 2026; Cement siding; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built by D.R. Horton
• Exterior features: Private yard; Back yard fence; Porch; Sprinkler/irrigation; Subdivision setting

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Quartz counters; Kitchen island; Breakfast bar; Pantry
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (15 x 11); Bedroom on first floor (10 x 9); Bedroom on first floor (10 x 9)
• Flooring: Carpet; Plank; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Kitchen island; Kitchen/family room combo; Kitchen/dining combo; Pantry; Quartz counters; Low emissivity windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Tankless water heater

🏗️ New construction. The $209,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $204,612.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $210k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-45 ($-541/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $198k (5.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $181k (13.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $181k (13.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#911 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Splendora ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #648 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Greenleaf El (math 28% / reading 25%, grade F, #2,927 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 797 students, 70% FRL); Splendora J H (math 28% / reading 42%, grade F, #842 of 1,662 statewide, top 51%, 774 students, 62% FRL); Splendora H S (math 18% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,170 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 1,344 students, 59% FRL).
• Market conditions: 542 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $181,257 (13.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.94%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $204,612
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14371 Leafy Willow Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,156 (0%)	6mo	$208,990	$181	89
14320 Leafy Willow Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,156 (0%)	6mo	$213,990	$185	86
14307 Leafy Willow Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,156 (0%)	6mo	$217,990	$189	84
14311 Leafy Willow Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,156 (0%)	7mo	$223,990	$194	84
24114 Chirp St	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+11%)	1mo	$221,990	$173	78
24142 Chirp St	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+11%)	4mo	$214,990	$168	74
23708 Patchouli Terrace Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,156 (0%)	7mo	$204,990	$177	73
14335 Leafy Willow Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+11%)	3mo	$214,990	$168	71
23728 Patchouli Terrace Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+11%)	6mo	$209,990	$164	57
13991 Manatee St	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,266 (+10%)	3mo	$189,900	$150	56
14609 Ivy Floral Way	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+11%)	2mo	$208,990	$163	55
23235 Teakwood Hills Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+11%)	6mo	$236,990	$185	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-35,962
• Equity at exit: $30,508

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-34,745
• Equity at exit: $17,691

Cash invested: $57,291 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77372

• Home prices YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 542
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,813 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,073
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$256 /mo · $3,069/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$63
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$381
• Net cashflow: $-45

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,870

Max offer price $198,086

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $96	-5% $26	+0% $-45	+5% $-116	+10% $-187
Rent	-10% $-188	-5% $-117	+0% $-45	+5% $26	+10% $98
Rate	-1.0pp $58	-0.5pp $7	base $-45	+0.5pp $-98	+1.0pp $-152

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,153
• Closing costs: $6,138
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $63 · $756/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $209,990 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $209,990 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $209,990 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $209,990 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $209,990 Active 2 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 598-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $209,990 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,751
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,461
• − Property taxes: −$3,069
• − Insurance: −$1,023
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,740
• − Management: −$1,740
• − HOA: −$756
• − Depreciation: −$5,952
• Taxable loss: −$3,991
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$958
• After-tax cash flow: $417/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in excellent condition with a new kitchen, bathrooms, and exterior. It is move-in ready and located in a desirable community with a park and easy access to Highway 59.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and pool maintenance — A well-maintained pool and landscaping can attract more buyers and renters.
• Both Smart home package — The smart home package can increase the home's appeal to tech-savvy buyers and renters.
• Both Tankless water heater — A tankless water heater can save on energy costs and appeal to environmentally conscious buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and pool maintenance — A well-maintained pool and landscaping can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Smart home package — The smart home package can increase the home's appeal to tech-savvy buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Tankless water heater — A tankless water heater can save on energy costs and appeal to environmentally conscious buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Splendora ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841070
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $54,166
• Composite: 24.92/100
• National rank: #7572
• State rank: #648 of 826 in TX

Livability — Splendora

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #911
• US rank: #16335

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 14,367
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,367
• Household income: $79,085
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 135.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 9% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 28%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -6.47%
• Current HPI: 306.9962
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $209,990 HARMLS