1746 W Camino Estelar · Green Valley, AZ 85622

$232,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,221 sqft · Condo public records · 260 Days on market

Built 1995 $62/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

A place like this isn't just where you live—it's where life happens. Tucked in an exclusive 14-home enclave, this recently updated 2-bed, 2-bath end-unit townhouse is effortless living at its finest. Two master suites, one with a private lockout, make it perfect for guests or extra income. Fully furnished and move-in ready, it's your key to mountain views, walking paths, and morning coffee on the patio as the sun rises over the fairways. Golf courses, restaurants, and the Elks Lodge are just a golf cart ride away. This isn't just a home. It's a lifestyle. 2nd Bedroom has a Lock & Leave separate entrance for potential income.

Key facts

• Golf courses
• Walking paths
• Patio

Tags

• EXCLUSIVE 14-HOME ENCLAVE
• PRIVATE LOCKOUT
• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• WALKING PATHS
• PATIO
• GOLF COURSES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot dimensions approximately 28' x 60' (1,612 sq ft lot); Living area listed as 1,221; Zoning: Pima County - TR; Parcel and tax information available
• HOA & community: Cortina Villas association; HOA fees $62.50 annually; HOA responsible for road; HOA transfer fee $150

Exterior

• Parking: 1 covered space; 1 carport space
• Utilities: Water from a water company; Sewer connected
• Home design: Townhouse; One story; Faces west
• Construction: Brick, frame, and masonry stucco construction; Membrane roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Block fencing; Borders common area; East/West exposure; Paved road; Sidewalks; Paved street

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Warming drawer
• Flooring: Carpet; Engineered wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Double pane windows; Warming drawer
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer in bathroom (stacked space)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $232k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $128 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $206k (11.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $205k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 4.5% in Green Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#165 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Continental Elementary District (4416) (rural): math 35% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #72 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Continental Elementary School (math 35% / reading 42%, grade F, #418 of 1,109 statewide, top 38%, 639 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: 112 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $382 appreciation (0.2% local appreciation)).
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (0.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $65k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 260 days — a 12% lower offer ($205k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $17k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $204,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 260 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.36%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.16% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $3,130
• Equity at exit: $69,429

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.70×
• Total profit: $45,652
• Equity at exit: $85,004

Cash invested: $65,100 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85622

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 112
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,062 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,219
• Tax from tax record: −$123 /mo · $1,476/yr
• Insurance: −$97
• HOA: −$62
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$433
• Net cashflow: $128

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,900

Max offer price $232,500

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,125
• Closing costs: $6,975
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1230 W Camino del Pato Green Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	1060	$3,200	$3.02	16d	1	0.53mi
1400 Placita Apache Unit X Green Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	987	$1,500	$1.52	23d	1	0.70mi
3689 S Avenida de Encino Green Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	1287	$1,650	$1.28	2d	1	0.88mi
1924 W Demetrie Loop Unit 31 Green Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	1356	$1,800	$1.33	23d	1	0.98mi
1430 W Camino Lucientes Green Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	1026	$1,500	$1.46	23d	1	1.04mi
2807 S Calle Trafalgar Unit NA Green Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	966	$1,650	$1.71	23d	1	1.10mi
1098 W Camino Sagasta Green Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	1117	$2,600	$2.33	23d	1	1.27mi
2780 S Camino Iturbide Green Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	1432	$1,800	$1.26	1d	1	1.27mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $62 · $744/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $232,500 Active 260 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $232,500 Active 259 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $232,500 Active 258 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $232,500 Active 257 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $232,500 Active 255 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $232,500 Active 252 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $232,500 Active 251 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $232,500 Active 250 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $232,500 Active 249 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $232,500 Active 245 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $232,500 Active 244 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $232,500 Active 243 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $232,500 Active 242 DOM
14. 2025-11-05
    price $232,500
15. 2025-09-10
    listed $249,500 Active
16. 2025-09-01
    listed $249,500 Active
17. 2025-09-01
    historical
18. 2025-07-21
    historical
19. 2025-02-28
    listed $259,500 Active
20. 2021-09-02
    soldstatus $210,000 Closed
21. 2021-08-06
    historical Active Contingent
22. 2021-06-22
    listed $220,000 Active
23. 2021-04-30
    soldstatus $156,800
24. 2018-06-18
    soldstatus $132,000 Closed
25. 2018-06-14
    soldstatus $132,000
26. 2018-05-25
    status Pending
27. 2018-05-13
    historical Active Contingent
28. 2018-05-04
    price $136,900
29. 2018-04-27
    listed $139,900 Active
30. 2018-01-03
    soldstatus $114,000 Closed
31. 2018-01-03
    soldstatus $115,000
32. 2005-01-07
    soldstatus $140,000
33. 2004-06-14
    soldstatus $115,000
34. 1995-07-31
    soldstatus $132,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,476 · $123/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,534 · $128/mo
• Expected delta: +$59/yr (+$5/mo · 4.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,748
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,024
• − Property taxes: −$1,476
• − Insurance: −$1,162
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,980
• − Management: −$1,980
• − HOA: −$744
• − Depreciation: −$6,764
• Taxable loss: −$2,381
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$571
• After-tax cash flow: $2,109/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Continental Elementary District (4416)
• NCES district ID: 0402250
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $48,475
• Composite: 33.08/100
• National rank: #5565
• State rank: #72 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Green Valley

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #165
• US rank: #18276

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Green Valley, AZ
• City population: 25,381
• Population (ZIP): 6,345

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 5% Portuguese 4%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.16%
• Current HPI: 225.8384
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+76.1% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-05 Price Changed $232,500 MLSSAZ
• 2025-09-10 Listed $249,500 MLSSAZ
• 2025-09-01 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2025-09-01 Listed $249,500 MLSSAZ
• 2025-07-21 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2025-02-28 Listed $259,500 MLSSAZ
• 2021-09-02 Sold (MLS) $210,000 MLSSAZ
• 2021-08-06 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2021-06-22 Listed $220,000 MLSSAZ
• 2021-04-30 Sold (Public Records) $156,800 Public Records
• 2018-06-18 Sold (MLS) $132,000 MLSSAZ
• 2018-06-14 Sold (Public Records) $132,000 Public Records
• 2018-05-25 Pending — MLSSAZ
• 2018-05-13 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2018-05-04 Price Changed $136,900 MLSSAZ
• 2018-04-27 Listed $139,900 MLSSAZ
• 2018-01-03 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records
• 2018-01-03 Sold (MLS) $114,000 MLSSAZ
• 2005-01-07 Sold (Public Records) $140,000 Public Records
• 2004-06-14 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records
• 1995-07-31 Sold (Public Records) $132,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,476 · +9.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.