519 E 3rd St · Sullivan City, TX 78595

$99,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,534 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1990 7,405 sqft lot $65/sqft · 22% below area Est $127k · 22% under ↓ 22% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Appreciation +6.4/10.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks

Located in Sullivan City, this charming 3-bedroom, 2 full bath, 2 half bath home offers approximately 1,534 living sq. ft. and a functional layout perfect for comfortable living and entertaining. One half bath is conveniently located indoors, while the second half bath is outdoors — ideal for gatherings and outdoor activities. Built in 1990, the home features a kitchen, dining room, living room, laundry room, and a converted garage currently being used as a game room. Enjoy the covered back porch, perfect for relaxing or entertaining guests year-round. The property is fenced on three sides with a wooden picket fence and includes two front metal rolling gates, a side access door, and a

Key facts

• Wooden picket fence
• Side access door
• Outdoor half bath

Tags

• OUTDOOR HALF BATH
• COVERED BACK PORCH
• FENCED ON THREE SIDES
• WOODEN PICKET FENCE
• TWO FRONT METAL ROLLING GATES
• SIDE ACCESS DOOR

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $107 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $98k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,369 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B; Watch: crime D, schools F, amenities F.
• La Joya ISD (suburban): math 18% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #759 of 826 in TX (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($684 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.9% local appreciation)).
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (2.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $41k (29%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $97,515 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.64%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $126,669
• List price: $99,000
• Delta: -13.95%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

2.89% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.66×
• Total profit: $18,282
• Equity at exit: $43,898

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.03×
• Total profit: $56,382
• Equity at exit: $67,177

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78595

• Home prices YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 37
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,175 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$261 /mo · $3,127/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$247
• Net cashflow: $107

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,039

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,000 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,000 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,000 Active 23 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,000 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,000 Active 20 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,000 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,000 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,000 Active 17 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $99,000 Active 14 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,000 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,000 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,000 Active 11 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,000 Active 10 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,000 Active 9 DOM
17. 2026-03-02
    status Active
18. 2026-02-25
    historical Option
19. 2026-02-12
    price $109,000
20. 2026-01-10
    price $120,000
21. 2025-11-12
    price $129,500
22. 2025-10-02
    listed $140,000 Active
23. 2014-04-15
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,127 · $261/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,127 · $261/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,101
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$3,127
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,128
• − Management: −$1,128
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable loss: −$203
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$49
• After-tax cash flow: $1,336/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: La Joya ISD
• NCES district ID: 4826130
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -35.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $27,845
• Composite: 18.65/100
• National rank: #8891
• State rank: #759 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sullivan City

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #1369
• US rank: #23526

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing B Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sullivan City, TX
• Population (ZIP): 5,958

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 98% Two or more races 46%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 96%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada
• Languages at home: 7% English-only · Spanish 93%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.89%
• Current HPI: 212.3717
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-22.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-02 Relisted — MCALLENMLS
• 2026-02-25 Contingent — MCALLENMLS
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $109,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2026-01-10 Price Changed $120,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-11-12 Price Changed $129,500 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-10-02 Listed $140,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2014-04-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,127 · +17.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.