1600 Wards Ferry Rd · Lynchburg, VA 24502

$249,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,782 sqft · Land · 1 Days on market

Built 2012 2,701 sqft lot $80/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

OPEN HOUSE Sun 2-4 pm. The lowest priced 4 bedroom townhomes in all of Lynchburg with $4,000 paid in closing costs by seller! Model is 901. A Once-in-a-Lifetime Investment Opportunity Near LU! You've never seen anything like this hit the market near Liberty University before. Low $80/mo HOA dues. Built in 2012, these are immaculate 4-bedroom 2.5 bath townhomes. Just one block from both LU and CVCC. Buy one or buy 2 or more! Nearly 600 sq ft per floor, spread across three private levels. No Parking Worries Ever, every unit includes 2 assigned parking spaces, plus there are over 100 additional spots throughout the complex. Low $80/month POA fees covering trash, snow removal, mowing, and land

Key facts

• One block from lu
• Low hoa dues
• $80 HOA

Tags

• INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY NEAR LU
• LOW HOA DUES
• ONE BLOCK FROM LU
• TWO ASSIGNED PARKING SPACES
• NO RENTAL LENGTH RESTRICTIONS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $87 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $221k (11.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $221k (11.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.0% in Lynchburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in VA, #58 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+.
• Lynchburg City Public School District (urban): math 36% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #104 of 131 in VA (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Sandusky Elementary (math 47% / reading 67%, grade C+, #597 of 1,108 statewide, top 57%, 352 students, 91% FRL); Heritage High (math 32% / reading 77%, grade C-, #281 of 319 statewide, top 90%, 1,073 students, 94% FRL) — zoned schools average 92% FRL vs 61% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 318 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 472 units permitted in Lynchburg city in 2024 (240 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lynchburg County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 9 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $10k; list at $250k implies a 2523% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $220,546 (11.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.49%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.11% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-30,203
• Equity at exit: $37,261

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $1,250
• Equity at exit: $21,607

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24502

• Rents YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 318
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,205 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$161 /mo · $1,932/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$80
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$463
• Net cashflow: $87

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,096

Max offer price $249,900

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1600 Wards Ferry Rd #1207 Lynchburg, VA	4.0	4.5	1728	$2,600	$1.50	44d	1	0.01mi
1600 Wards Ferry Rd #907 Lynchburg, VA	4.0	2.5	1782	$1,895	$1.06	44d	1	0.01mi
124 Palmer Dr Lynchburg, VA	5.0	3.0	1250	$2,600	$2.08	21d	1	0.65mi
1816 Wards Ferry Rd Lynchburg, VA	3.0	3.5	1432	$825	$0.58	44d	1	0.68mi
110 Aaron Pl #611 Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.5	1490	$1,925	$1.29	21d	1	0.88mi
110 Aaron Pl #605 Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1517	$1,795	$1.18	13d	1	0.88mi
217 Bentley Grove Way Lynchburg, VA	5.0	3.0	2536	$3,495	$1.38	21d	1	0.98mi
5900 Edgewood Ave Lynchburg, VA	3.0	1.0	1528	$1,400	$0.92	13d	1	1.05mi
152 Montview Forest Dr Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,545	$1.10	13d	1	1.05mi
556 Leesville Rd #306 Lynchburg, VA	3.0	3.0	1520	$2,100	$1.38	44d	1	1.11mi
556 Leesville Rd Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,695	$1.06	13d	1	1.11mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $80 · $960/yr
• Likely covers: trashsnow removalparking

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-01-20
   status Active
2. 2025-12-07
   status Pending
3. 2025-12-07
   listed $249,900 Active
4. 2025-12-02
   status Pending
5. 2025-12-01
   listed $249,900 Active
6. 2025-11-23
   status Pending
7. 2025-11-21
   listed $249,900 Active
8. 2025-10-16
   historical $1,995
9. 2025-09-13
   listed $1,995
10. 2025-09-13
    historical $1,995
11. 2025-07-30
    listed $1,995
12. 2025-06-18
    historical $1,195
13. 2025-06-12
    soldstatus $9,529
14. 2025-06-07
    listed $1,195
15. 2025-04-20
    historical $1,795
16. 2025-04-12
    listed $350,000 Active
17. 2025-04-06
    listed $1,795
18. 2012-04-19
    soldstatus $960,000
19. 2010-04-12
    soldstatus $2,409,600
20. 2006-11-21
    soldstatus $748,650

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,932 · $161/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,049 · $171/mo
• Expected delta: +$117/yr (+$10/mo · 6.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,466
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$1,932
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,117
• − Management: −$2,117
• − HOA: −$960
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$3,178
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$763
• After-tax cash flow: $1,803/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lynchburg City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102340
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $39,097
• Composite: 40.4/100
• National rank: #3730
• State rank: #104 of 131 in VA

Livability — Lynchburg

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #58

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lynchburg, VA
• County: Lynchburg City · 97,036 people
• City population: 97,036
• Metro: Lynchburg, VA
• Population (ZIP): 41,979
• Household income: $68,872
• Rent vs Own: 47.7% rent · 52.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1774.0

Population outlook (Lynchburg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,977 people
• By 2030: 93,626 · +6.4%
• By 2040: 106,145 · +20.7%
• By 2050: 120,783 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 162,249 · +84.4%
• By 2100: 191,358 · +117.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 19% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea, United Kingdom
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lynchburg

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+7.9) · D 45.4% · R 53.3% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -4.0pp · 2024: -7.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+7.9 2020: D+2.6 2016: R+9.0 2012: R+10.6 2008: R+4.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -222.79%
• Current HPI: 241.9041
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.11%
• Metro: Lynchburg, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-66.6% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-20 Relisted — LMLS
• 2025-12-07 Pending — LMLS
• 2025-12-07 Listed $249,900 LMLS
• 2025-12-02 Pending — LMLS
• 2025-12-01 Listed $249,900 LMLS
• 2025-11-23 Pending — LMLS
• 2025-11-21 Listed $249,900 LMLS
• 2025-10-16 Rental Removed $1,995 BUILDIUM
• 2025-09-13 Listed for Rent $1,995 BUILDIUM
• 2025-09-13 Rental Removed $1,995 BUILDIUM
• 2025-07-30 Listed for Rent $1,995 BUILDIUM
• 2025-06-18 Rental Removed $1,195 APPFOLIO
• 2025-06-12 Sold (Public Records) $9,529 Public Records
• 2025-06-07 Listed for Rent $1,195 APPFOLIO
• 2025-04-20 Rental Removed $1,795 RENTALBEAST
• 2025-04-12 Listed $350,000 LMLS
• 2025-04-06 Listed for Rent $1,795 RENTALBEAST
• 2012-04-19 Sold (Public Records) $960,000 Public Records
• 2010-04-12 Sold (Public Records) $2,409,600 Public Records
• 2006-11-21 Sold (Public Records) $748,650 Public Records

Property tax history

+14.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,932 · +334.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.