1253 Denton Creek Rd · Billings, MI 48612

$65,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 766 sqft · SingleFamily · 10 Days on market

Built 1952 5,663 sqft lot $85/sqft · 30% below area Est $92k · 30% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This affordable starter home is in fair condition and offers a solid opportunity for buyers looking to make updates over time. The home is functional and livable as-is. Inside, you’ll find a practical layout with a comfortable living area, a workable kitchen, and bedrooms that provide good space for everyday living. While some areas show wear, the home has good bones and plenty of potential for personalization. Whether you’re a first-time buyer wanting to build equity or an investor seeking a solid opportunity, this home is worth a look. Agent owned

Key facts

• 5,663 sq ft lot
• Built 1952
• Listed 9 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $292 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($909 rent vs $65k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Beaverton Rural Schools (rural): math 24% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #364 of 540 in MI (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 103 active listings in the ZIP; 90 units permitted in Gladwin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gladwin County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 8 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (28%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $65,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.27%
• DSCR: 1.86
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $92,485
• List price: $65,000
• Delta: -24.31%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1414 Denton Creek Rd	0.32mi	2/1.0	792 (+3%)	19mo	$65,000	$82	64
4233 Gilding Rd	0.51mi	2/1.0	825 (+8%)	6mo	$40,000	$48	59
4170/4161 Bay View Dr	0.37mi	2/1.0	670 (-12%)	9mo	$159,000	$237	54
4286 Charlebois Dr	0.62mi	2/1.5	796 (+4%)	11mo	$71,000	$89	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.44×
• Total profit: $8,078
• Equity at exit: $9,692

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.70×
• Total profit: $30,997
• Equity at exit: $5,620

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48612

• Home prices YoY: -23.3%
• Active inventory: 103
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $909 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax from tax record: −$58 /mo · $695/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$191
• Net cashflow: $292

Break-even live

Break-even rent $539

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $329	-5% $311	+0% $292	+5% $274	+10% $255
Rent	-10% $220	-5% $256	+0% $292	+5% $328	+10% $364
Rate	-1.0pp $325	-0.5pp $309	base $292	+0.5pp $275	+1.0pp $258

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $65,000 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $65,000 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $65,000 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $65,000 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $65,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $65,000 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   pricedays on marketlisting id $65,000 Active 1 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $70,000 Active 148 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $70,000 Active 147 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $70,000 Active 146 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $70,000 Active 145 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $70,000 Active 144 DOM
13. 2026-03-18
    price $70,000 567-char remark

    Show marketing remark (555 chars)

    This affordable starter home is in fair condition and offers a solid opportunity for buyers looking to make updates over time. The home is functional and livable as-is. Inside, you'll find a practical layout with a comfortable living area, a workable kitchen, and bedrooms that provide good space for everyday living. While some areas show wear, the home has good bones and plenty of potential for personalization. Whether you're a first-time buyer wanting to build equity or an investor seeking a solid opportunity, this home is worth a look. Agent owned

14. 2026-03-18
    price $70,000 555-char remark

    Show marketing remark (555 chars)

    This affordable starter home is in fair condition and offers a solid opportunity for buyers looking to make updates over time. The home is functional and livable as-is. Inside, you'll find a practical layout with a comfortable living area, a workable kitchen, and bedrooms that provide good space for everyday living. While some areas show wear, the home has good bones and plenty of potential for personalization. Whether you're a first-time buyer wanting to build equity or an investor seeking a solid opportunity, this home is worth a look. Agent owned

15. 2026-03-02
    price $75,000 567-char remark

    Show marketing remark (555 chars)

    This affordable starter home is in fair condition and offers a solid opportunity for buyers looking to make updates over time. The home is functional and livable as-is. Inside, you'll find a practical layout with a comfortable living area, a workable kitchen, and bedrooms that provide good space for everyday living. While some areas show wear, the home has good bones and plenty of potential for personalization. Whether you're a first-time buyer wanting to build equity or an investor seeking a solid opportunity, this home is worth a look. Agent owned

16. 2026-03-02
    price $75,000 555-char remark

    Show marketing remark (555 chars)

    This affordable starter home is in fair condition and offers a solid opportunity for buyers looking to make updates over time. The home is functional and livable as-is. Inside, you'll find a practical layout with a comfortable living area, a workable kitchen, and bedrooms that provide good space for everyday living. While some areas show wear, the home has good bones and plenty of potential for personalization. Whether you're a first-time buyer wanting to build equity or an investor seeking a solid opportunity, this home is worth a look. Agent owned

17. 2026-02-13
    price $80,000 567-char remark

    Show marketing remark (555 chars)

    This affordable starter home is in fair condition and offers a solid opportunity for buyers looking to make updates over time. The home is functional and livable as-is. Inside, you'll find a practical layout with a comfortable living area, a workable kitchen, and bedrooms that provide good space for everyday living. While some areas show wear, the home has good bones and plenty of potential for personalization. Whether you're a first-time buyer wanting to build equity or an investor seeking a solid opportunity, this home is worth a look. Agent owned

18. 2026-02-13
    price $80,000 555-char remark

    Show marketing remark (555 chars)

    This affordable starter home is in fair condition and offers a solid opportunity for buyers looking to make updates over time. The home is functional and livable as-is. Inside, you'll find a practical layout with a comfortable living area, a workable kitchen, and bedrooms that provide good space for everyday living. While some areas show wear, the home has good bones and plenty of potential for personalization. Whether you're a first-time buyer wanting to build equity or an investor seeking a solid opportunity, this home is worth a look. Agent owned

19. 2026-01-06
    listed $90,000 Active 567-char remark

    Show marketing remark (555 chars)

    This affordable starter home is in fair condition and offers a solid opportunity for buyers looking to make updates over time. The home is functional and livable as-is. Inside, you'll find a practical layout with a comfortable living area, a workable kitchen, and bedrooms that provide good space for everyday living. While some areas show wear, the home has good bones and plenty of potential for personalization. Whether you're a first-time buyer wanting to build equity or an investor seeking a solid opportunity, this home is worth a look. Agent owned

20. 2026-01-06
    listed $90,000 Active 555-char remark

    Show marketing remark (555 chars)

    This affordable starter home is in fair condition and offers a solid opportunity for buyers looking to make updates over time. The home is functional and livable as-is. Inside, you'll find a practical layout with a comfortable living area, a workable kitchen, and bedrooms that provide good space for everyday living. While some areas show wear, the home has good bones and plenty of potential for personalization. Whether you're a first-time buyer wanting to build equity or an investor seeking a solid opportunity, this home is worth a look. Agent owned

21. 2019-01-16
    listed $10,000
22. 2011-09-26
    historical
23. 2011-03-26
    listed $12,500
24. 2010-05-11
    listed $9,000
25. 2007-02-11
    historical
26. 2006-08-11
    listed $23,910
27. 2006-04-11
    historical
28. 2005-04-11
    listed $25,500
29. 2004-12-31
    historical
30. 2004-06-25
    listed $25,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $695 · $58/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $848 · $71/mo
• Expected delta: +$153/yr (+$13/mo · 22.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,907
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$695
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$873
• − Management: −$873
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $2,610
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$627
• After-tax cash flow: $2,880/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Beaverton Rural Schools
• NCES district ID: 2604440
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $39,200
• Composite: 25.54/100
• National rank: #7431
• State rank: #364 of 540 in MI

Livability — Billings

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,505

Population outlook (Gladwin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 23,440 people
• By 2030: 22,281 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 19,867 · -15.2%
• By 2050: 17,667 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 12,909 · -44.9%
• By 2100: 8,629 · -63.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 5% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Gladwin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.7) · D 29.1% · R 69.8% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -42.2pp toward R · 2008: 1.5pp · 2024: -40.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.7 2020: R+36.8 2016: R+34.7 2012: R+7.2 2008: D+1.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.55%
• Current HPI: 215.4508
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+174.5% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $70,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $70,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $75,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $75,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $80,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $80,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-01-06 Listed $90,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-01-06 Listed $90,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2019-01-16 Listed $10,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2011-09-26 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2011-03-26 Listed $12,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2010-05-11 Listed $9,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2007-02-11 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2006-08-11 Listed $23,910 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2006-04-11 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2005-04-11 Listed $25,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2004-12-31 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2004-06-25 Listed $25,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

-4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $695 · -58.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.