117 Merrion Rd · Lynn Haven, FL 32409

$419,900

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,784 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 58 Days on market

Built 2019 0.26 ac lot $151/sqft · at area comps Est $424k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +9.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.9/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Cash flow +3.8/30.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

CURRENTLY UNDER CONTRACT, SELLER ACCEPTING BACKUP OFFERS. Like new! Affordable living with a view! This large home boasts over 2,700 sqft of heated and cooled space along with 5 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. Many upgrades including granite countertops and beautiful vinyl flooring. The house overlooks a pond resulting in plenty of privacy. The neighborhood offers amenities such as a community pool, sidewalks, and green space. Conveniently located to great schools and entertainment. Call for more information or to schedule a showing today!

Key facts

• 0.26 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association present; Community pool

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Electricity available; Underground utilities; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story; Residential single family zoning
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Lot dimensions approx. 136' x 150' x 150' x 17'
• Exterior features: Covered patio and porch; Patio; Porch; Fenced yard with privacy fencing; Paved lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven
• Bedrooms: Bedroom on second level (approx. 11 x 15); Bedroom on second level (approx. 12 x 13); Bedroom on second level (approx. 12 x 15); Bedroom on second level (approx. 15 x 16); Room on first level (approx. 17 x 13)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Double pane windows; Insulated doors

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $420k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $205k (51.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (54.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $190k (54.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#96 in FL, #1,472 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D+, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Southport Elementary School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade C-, #990 of 2,144 statewide, top 48%, 506 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools at 52% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 301 active listings in the ZIP; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $41k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $38k appreciation (9.1% local appreciation)).
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$66k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($407k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $190,277 (54.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 55% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.45% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.42%
• DSCR: 0.45
• GRM: 18.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $423,854
• List price: $419,900
• Delta: -0.93%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
112 Crenshaw St	0.31mi	5/2.5	2,764 (-1%)	8mo	$350,000	$127	76
124 Talbot St	0.22mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,796 (+0%)	10mo	$475,000	$170	74
353 Confidence	0.35mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,761 (-1%)	11mo	$840,000	$304	66
365 Confidence Way	0.37mi	5/3.0	3,051 (+10%)	2mo	$899,000	$295	66
376 Confidence Way	0.36mi	5/3.0	3,131 (+12%)	2mo	$512,000	$164	61
86 Alegro Dr	0.47mi	5/3.0	3,135 (+13%)	13mo	$750,000	$239	46
89 Fedora Dr	0.53mi	4/3.0 (-1)	3,155 (+13%)	6mo	$855,000	$271	44
94 Alegro Dr	0.45mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,034 (+9%)	16mo	$835,000	$275	44
9 Fedora Dr	0.69mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,555 (-8%)	15mo	$434,000	$170	34
560 Fanning Bayou Dr	0.71mi	5/3.0	3,060 (+10%)	21mo	$534,900	$175	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.08% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.06×
• Total profit: $124,955
• Equity at exit: $350,469

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.60×
• Total profit: $423,271
• Equity at exit: $728,037

Cash invested: $117,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32409

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 301
• Price-to-rent: 18.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,903 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,202
• Tax from tax record: −$343 /mo · $4,118/yr
• Insurance: −$175
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$400
• Net cashflow: $-1,217

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,443

Max offer price $204,920

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-979	-5% $-1,098	+0% $-1,217	+5% $-1,336	+10% $-1,455
Rent	-10% $-1,367	-5% $-1,292	+0% $-1,217	+5% $-1,142	+10% $-1,067
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,005	-0.5pp $-1,110	base $-1,217	+0.5pp $-1,326	+1.0pp $-1,436

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $104,975
• Closing costs: $12,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $419,900 Active 58 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $419,900 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $419,900 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $419,900 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $419,900 Active 53 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $419,900 Active 52 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $419,900 Active 50 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $419,900 Active 49 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $419,900 Active 47 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $419,900 Active 46 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $419,900 Active 45 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $419,900 Active 44 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $419,900 Active 41 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $419,900 Active 40 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $419,900 Active 39 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $419,900 Active 38 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $419,900 Active 37 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $419,900 Active 36 DOM
19. 2026-04-21
    listed $429,900 Active 335-char remark
20. 2022-02-28
    soldstatus $367,500 Closed 539-char remark

    Show marketing remark (539 chars)

    CURRENTLY UNDER CONTRACT, SELLER ACCEPTING BACKUP OFFERS. Like new! Affordable living with a view! This large home boasts over 2,700 sqft of heated and cooled space along with 5 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. Many upgrades including granite countertops and beautiful vinyl flooring. The house overlooks a pond resulting in plenty of privacy. The neighborhood offers amenities such as a community pool, sidewalks, and green space. Conveniently located to great schools and entertainment. Call for more information or to schedule a showing today!

21. 2022-02-23
    listed Active Under Contract 539-char remark

    Show marketing remark (539 chars)

    CURRENTLY UNDER CONTRACT, SELLER ACCEPTING BACKUP OFFERS. Like new! Affordable living with a view! This large home boasts over 2,700 sqft of heated and cooled space along with 5 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. Many upgrades including granite countertops and beautiful vinyl flooring. The house overlooks a pond resulting in plenty of privacy. The neighborhood offers amenities such as a community pool, sidewalks, and green space. Conveniently located to great schools and entertainment. Call for more information or to schedule a showing today!

22. 2022-01-05
    listed $375,000 539-char remark

    Show marketing remark (539 chars)

    CURRENTLY UNDER CONTRACT, SELLER ACCEPTING BACKUP OFFERS. Like new! Affordable living with a view! This large home boasts over 2,700 sqft of heated and cooled space along with 5 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. Many upgrades including granite countertops and beautiful vinyl flooring. The house overlooks a pond resulting in plenty of privacy. The neighborhood offers amenities such as a community pool, sidewalks, and green space. Conveniently located to great schools and entertainment. Call for more information or to schedule a showing today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,118 · $343/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,118 · $343/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 69% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,833
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,521
• − Property taxes: −$4,118
• − Insurance: −$2,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,827
• − Management: −$1,827
• − Depreciation: −$12,215
• Taxable loss: −$22,774
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,466
• After-tax cash flow: $-9,138/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lynn Haven

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #96
• US rank: #1472

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 21,459
• Population (ZIP): 10,941

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.08%
• Current HPI: 391.06
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+12.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $419,900 CPARMLS
• 2026-04-21 Listed $429,900 CPARMLS
• 2022-02-28 Sold (MLS) $367,500 CPARMLS
• 2022-02-23 Listed — CPARMLS
• 2022-01-05 Listed $375,000 CPARMLS

Property tax history

+74.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,118 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.