80 Fox Run Rd · Morehead, KY 40351

$140,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,050 sqft · SingleFamily · 67 Days on market

Built 1992 1.00 ac lot $133/sqft · 29% below area Est $196k · 29% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

An exceptional opportunity awaits in this 2-bedroom, 2-full bath home sits on approximately one acre and offers the perfect blend of comfort and convenience. Step inside to find gleaming new LVP floors that add both durability and style, along with a roof that's 3 years young, for peace of mind in the years ahead. The open floor plan seamlessly connects the living, dining, and kitchen areas, creating an inviting space ideal for everyday living and entertaining.A true standout feature of this property is the impressive 30x40 insulated garage—perfect for car enthusiasts, hobbyists, or anyone needing extra space. The garage includes a large 16x12 door to accommodate bigger vehicles or equipment, as well as water access and 200 amp electric service. It is now equipped with a newly installed 15,000 lb car lift, making it a dream setup for automotive work or storage. It also includes a 2nd optional address, making it idea to operate your business from home. Conveniently located just 4 miles from I-64 and only 7 miles from downtown Morehead, you'll enjoy easy access to shopping, dining, and entertainment.

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• 3 garage spots
• Built 1992

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $149 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $123k (12.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $123k (12.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 4.7% in Morehead — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#345 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D, housing D.
• Rowan County (rural): math 28% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #74 of 165 in KY (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 147 active listings in the ZIP; 15 units permitted in Rowan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Rowan County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $15k; list at $140k implies a 833% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,052 (12.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.55%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $196,241
• List price: $140,000
• Delta: -28.66%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
84 Conyers Way	0.69mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,080 (+3%)	11mo	$170,000	$157	45
4320 Sugar Loaf Mountain Rd	0.70mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,031 (-2%)	23mo	$160,000	$155	40
470 Poplar Ln	0.72mi	3/1.0 (+1)	984 (-6%)	22mo	$150,000	$152	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-13,293
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $326
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40351

• Home prices YoY: -22.6%
• Active inventory: 147
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,231 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$31 /mo · $372/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$258
• Net cashflow: $149

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,042

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $140,000 Active 67 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $140,000 Active 66 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $140,000 Active 65 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $140,000 Active 64 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $140,000 Active 62 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $140,000 Active 61 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $140,000 Active 59 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $140,000 Active 58 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $140,000 Active 57 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $140,000 Active 56 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $140,000 Active 52 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $140,000 Active 51 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,000 Active 50 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 49 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 48 DOM
16. 2026-04-12
    listed $150,000 Active 1121-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1121 chars)

    An exceptional opportunity awaits in this 2-bedroom, 2-full bath home sits on approximately one acre and offers the perfect blend of comfort and convenience. Step inside to find gleaming new LVP floors that add both durability and style, along with a roof that's 3 years young, for peace of mind in the years ahead. The open floor plan seamlessly connects the living, dining, and kitchen areas, creating an inviting space ideal for everyday living and entertaining.A true standout feature of this property is the impressive 30x40 insulated garage—perfect for car enthusiasts, hobbyists, or anyone needing extra space. The garage includes a large 16x12 door to accommodate bigger vehicles or equipment, as well as water access and 200 amp electric service. It is now equipped with a newly installed 15,000 lb car lift, making it a dream setup for automotive work or storage. It also includes a 2nd optional address, making it idea to operate your business from home. Conveniently located just 4 miles from I-64 and only 7 miles from downtown Morehead, you'll enjoy easy access to shopping, dining, and entertainment.

17. 2025-04-14
    historical
18. 2025-03-18
    listed $150,000 Active
19. 2024-07-13
    historical
20. 2024-05-21
    listed $150,000 Active
21. 2008-07-31
    soldstatus $15,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $372 · $31/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,204 · $100/mo
• Expected delta: +$832/yr (+$69/mo · 223.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,766
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$372
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,181
• − Management: −$1,181
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable loss: −$584
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$140
• After-tax cash flow: $1,923/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rowan County
• NCES district ID: 2105100
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $35,139
• Composite: 28.47/100
• National rank: #6742
• State rank: #74 of 165 in KY

Livability — Morehead

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #345
• US rank: #16479

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing D Health & safety C- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Rowan County · 22,322 people
• City population: 22,322
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 22,322
• Household income: $51,835
• Rent vs Own: 37.6% rent · 62.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 589.0

Population outlook (Rowan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,518 people
• By 2030: 29,242 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 32,949 · +19.7%
• By 2050: 37,128 · +34.9%
• By 2075: 49,130 · +78.5%
• By 2100: 59,014 · +114.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Hispanic / Latino 2% Two or more races 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Rowan

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.8) · D 35.3% · R 63.0% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: 2.0pp · 2024: -27.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.8 2020: R+21.0 2016: R+21.3 2012: R+7.8 2008: D+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -59.28%
• Current HPI: 203.0786
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+900.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-12 Listed $150,000 ImagineMLS
• 2025-04-14 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2025-03-18 Listed $150,000 ImagineMLS
• 2024-07-13 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2024-05-21 Listed $150,000 ImagineMLS
• 2008-07-31 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records