37701 Newal Ave · Zephyrhills, FL 33542

$185,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,323 sqft · Manufactured public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1997 6,527 sqft lot Est $185k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.6/15.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Affordable, well-maintained 1997 double-wide manufactured home — 3 BR, 2 BA with a light-filled living/dining combo and a large kitchen with breakfast nook and adjacent indoor laundry closet. Enjoy relaxing on the covered, screened rear lanai or the front porch; additional features include a metal roof, storage/workshop by the front entrance, large 2-car carport with fenced dog kennel, and a big driveway. Located in a quiet, walkable neighborhood with sidewalks, centrally positioned close to shopping and restaurants. Lovely, move-in ready home — schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Breakfast nook
• Metal roof
• Front porch

Tags

• LARGE KITCHEN
• BREAKFAST NOOK
• INDOOR LAUNDRY CLOSET
• COVERED SCREENED REAR LANAI
• FRONT PORCH
• METAL ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $341 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $183k (1.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $183k (1.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 3.8% in Zephyrhills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#330 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: West Zephyrhills Elementary School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,896 of 2,144 statewide, top 90%, 615 students, 81% FRL); Zephyrhills High School (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #359 of 667 statewide, top 55%, 1,656 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 48% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 33% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.6%/yr); 297 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($49k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $182,877 (1.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.91%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $185,220
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
37701 Newal Ave	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,323 (0%)	1mo	$185,000	$140	99
37743 Markland Ave	0.21mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,150 (-13%)	8mo	$145,000	$126	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-13,682
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-4,964
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33542

• Home prices YoY: -20.6%
• Rents YoY: -3.6%
• Active inventory: 297
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,829 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$56 /mo · $675/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$384
• Net cashflow: $341

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,397

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $446	-5% $394	+0% $341	+5% $289	+10% $237
Rent	-10% $197	-5% $269	+0% $341	+5% $413	+10% $486
Rate	-1.0pp $434	-0.5pp $388	base $341	+0.5pp $293	+1.0pp $245

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
37661 Aaralyn Rd Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1363	$1,800	$1.32	25d	1	0.06mi
6246 Timberly Ln Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1363	$1,900	$1.39	25d	1	0.08mi
37732 Cecil Ln Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,800	$1.73	25d	1	0.09mi
6262 Maisie Rd Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1363	$1,700	$1.25	25d	1	0.15mi
6249 Maisai Rd #6 Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1561	$1,550	$0.99	3d	1	0.17mi
6335 Maisie Rd Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1363	$1,650	$1.21	21d	1	0.20mi
6195 Daerr Ridge St Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1386	$2,000	$1.44	18d	1	0.34mi
6302 Abbott Station Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	1.0–2.5	855	$1,999	$2.34	2d	142	0.43mi
6136 Pina Colada St Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1386	$2,100	$1.52	13d	1	0.46mi
37812 15th Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,850	$1.85	25d	1	0.47mi
38300 Henry Dr Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	1152	$1,650	$1.43	6d	1	0.60mi
6633 Foxmoor Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,000	$1.54	25d	1	0.62mi
38350 Ironwood Pl #5 Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1094	$1,800	$1.65	25d	1	0.73mi
37814 Daughtery Rd Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	1070	$1,395	$1.30	6d	1	0.76mi
5521 Barbara St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,800	$1.70	25d	1	0.81mi
36887 Highland Meadows Ct Zephyrhills, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,250	$1.23	25d	1	0.85mi
5441 6th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	1014	$1,650	$1.63	25d	1	0.90mi
6788 Basswood Cir Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1067	$1,250	$1.17	25d	1	0.91mi
38621 Rose Ln Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	1040	$1,495	$1.44	0d	1	0.99mi
5237 1st St Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	1.0	964	$1,700	$1.76	25d	1	1.01mi
6773 Branham Mill Ct Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1454	$1,950	$1.34	25d	1	1.03mi
38719 12th Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.5	1246	$1,400	$1.12	25d	1	1.07mi
37902 7th Ave Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	1.0	900	$1,775	$1.97	25d	1	1.07mi
38552 9th Ave Zephyrhills, FL	4.0	2.0	1052	$2,100	$2.00	21d	1	1.08mi
5143 1st St Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1436	$1,750	$1.22	25d	1	1.10mi
5812 17th St Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1320	$2,100	$1.59	25d	1	1.20mi
7064 Ripple Pond Loop Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1787	$2,047	$1.15	15d	1	1.20mi
36507 Camp Fire Ter Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1537	$2,500	$1.63	25d	1	1.22mi
5652 18th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	976	$1,200	$1.23	25d	1	1.31mi
36406 Well Hill Way Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$2,000	$1.22	18d	1	1.33mi
36401 Camp Fire Ter Unit 36401 Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$1,895	$1.16	21d	1	1.33mi
36403 Well Hill Way Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1528	$2,200	$1.44	25d	1	1.33mi
5022 5th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.5	974	$1,595	$1.64	25d	1	1.35mi
37643 Leafside Ln Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.5	1541	$1,840	$1.19	22d	1	1.38mi
36352 Well Hill Way Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$1,950	$1.19	3d	1	1.38mi
37711 Leafside Ln Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.5	1541	$1,765	$1.15	15d	1	1.38mi
4940 4th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$1,350	$1.50	25d	1	1.39mi
4850 Foliage Rd Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.5	1541	$1,780	$1.16	22d	1	1.40mi
37726 Leafside Ln Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$1,985	$1.21	22d	1	1.40mi
37714 Leafside Ln Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.5	1541	$1,855	$1.20	15d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-14
   listed $185,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $675 · $56/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,536 · $128/mo
• Expected delta: +$861/yr (+$72/mo · 127.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,945
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$675
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,756
• − Management: −$1,756
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable income: $1,090
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$262
• After-tax cash flow: $3,834/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Zephyrhills

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #330
• US rank: #5760

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Zephyrhills, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 23,612
• Household income: $49,316
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 831.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -81.25%
• Current HPI: 313.3993
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.56%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-14 Listed $185,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $675 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.